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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
Agree on the whole and would add that it also is product dependent which method you employ. Scaling does strongly help psychology. Don't agree with the statement that scaling out doesn't reduce risk. Also, if you are really good at picking targets i.e. places where the market will move to on its extreme, then your maximum 'risk' could be a tick from your TP. "Don't be a dick for a tick" is said for that very reason!! (obviously when I say risk here I'm talking about MFE/MAE) -
Return to 1358.25 scene of crime from 10am ISM release.
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
The scales are designed not as profit targets as such, but to reduce risk. The system is simply trying to get the most out of a directional trade while negating a good proportion of loses from trades which actually start off by getting you on side before moving against you. -
Miss there on ISM (49.7 vs 52.0 exp). 50.0 is seen as key generally. Construction spending was higher though (0.9% vs 0.2% exp and prev 0.3% revised to 0.6%)
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Nice move into close on Friday for those who missed it. Today is the first day of a somewhat fragmented week with 4th July falling slap bang in the middle of it. I imagine many will take Thurs/Fri off, so action might be slower or as sometimes happens, 'freer'. Overnight we've seen a test back into Friday's range (right down to where the thin part of the profile ends) and a test to new highs. Right now we're sitting just about at Friday close at 1358.25. There's ISM Manufacturing at 10am with other figs. I'd just say if there's any signs of strength in the market, I would think twice about fading it. Yes, we've seen volatility recently, but to me we may be going out of balance to the upside. Just a thought. Here's a chart:-
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Fair enough, can happen .
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That was a pretty decent move into cash close. Looks like there was a lot of business covering. Who knows. See what happens into 4:15pm.
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No worries. Sounds like you had a pretty good week anyway! I'm actually pretty amazed 51's held actually, although it's slightly deceiving as the market is in slo-mo right now. Could well still be that it'll ramp through at some point. Have a good weekend anyway!
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Lol. I think this is the beginning of the end of the week - until maybe a pop later on. Who knows.
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Btw, I think it's well worth noting that in spite of the gap up, the current range is a mere 7.75 points. That could change at some point if someone comes in and needs to do business or if some news comes out, but it is what it is right now. The rotations are currently pretty small and so to me, trading is not that great.
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what was your fill ?
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Lol. Okay! Red button is depressed.
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that 47.75 low vol/47.50 open range high needs to break for a test of mid/open/vwap at 46.75/46.25
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Notice that on the way up, we we doing this kind of stripping of prices:- What does that say? Either there's someone willing to take a pretty decent sized short, or people are really wanting to take profits. What does that mean? There could be a pretty decent move lower from here or there could be more fuel for a move higher. Let's see
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Was a bit of a struggle to turn though. Maybe well start moving more freely if o/n high/51's get taken.
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It might be particularly interesting to watch the European cash close @11:30am today...
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It's also end of quarter btw. Not saying it get that high but the RTH Q2 open was 1395.25. That would be a crazy target but then you never know, ACH!
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I forgot to mention the gap and singles from 5/3-5/4. Gap was 1379.50-73.25 and singles on 5/4 were 1374.75-69.50.
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Well this is all news driven and based on the EU summit. They haven't actually agreed any specifics yet but they're making noises about doing something major and pretty soon. Full EU Summit Statement (In All Its Conditional Wishy-Washy Glory) | ZeroHedge If it stays like this for the next hour, we're gonna be opening with a large 20+ point gap. That suggests we could go further. Don't fade BIG gaps. However, a bit of news contrary to what we've been hearing and the market could tumble. I suspect that we'll carry on up but who knows. 1 hour before open and we've nearly hit 500k already and that isn't likely to let up. If it does take off, what are the targets? Well I've highlighted a few in the chart but I would point out it could go much further too. If this statement is seen to be the precursor to "fixing" Europe, it could do anything. On the other hand, it could just be a short term positive with people looking to take some profits when the move up runs out of steam. I honestly don't know. We could also just balance, resting after what has been a big move up since the last 30mins of trading yesterday. It's also Friday and month end today which has the potential to exacerbate any move. We watch, we wait, we see, we pounce. :missy:
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
Fair enough. You still have a much better rate!! Bad luck on the short. If it doesn't want to fill the gap, that is probably a clue. -
The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
Yeah I think that retail is probably around 2.5/3/rt actually and you're getting 0.8/RT/lot. If it is 0.4/lot that is very competitive at the low levels of volume you will be doing. So my guess is 0.8/lot and 1.6 for the 2. If retail is ~2.5-3 /lot you have 26-32% of retail comms. Anyway, don't scalp and post!:helloooo: lol -
The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
A question for you LN. When you scalp, are you looking purely at price action at that time, or do you look for price action at key areas? -
Full EU Summit Statement (In All Its Conditional Wishy-Washy Glory) | ZeroHedge So it does look like they are at least trying to do something and maybe the market likes that. They better not disappoint :security:
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
I doubt that. Correct me if I'm wrong LN, but I believe you are trading in an arcade. As such, you have the advantage of much lower commissions than the retail trader and a much quicker connection. Not that you'll get much "slippage" on the eurostoxx anyway. People do trade in this way and make money. -
Possibly. Not a great low there, although it did turn form the area I mentioned. Could be important here whether or not it manages to stay within the IB. We'll see.