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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Haha. Neutral day by just 3 ticks in the end! Have a great weekend all and see you next week!
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I would say if we do get a break of the IB high and therefore a neutral day, first target above is probably 1353.75.
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This is the non-backadjusted continuous contract of crude since late '05.
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You know, I've been looking at the price of oil for a while now and thinking it's a problem for "the recovery". The questions you have to ask yourself are 1- Is the price of oil a good reflection of dwindling global resources? 2- Is the price of oil reflective of the diminishing value of the currency it's priced in? 3- Can the global economy currently rebound with a high value of oil? 4- What can central bankers do about it and would they do it anyway? The spike which saw values top out in mid '08 at just shy of $150 per barrel was blamed at the time on speculation. But is that all it is? I mean just look at the recent Libor revelations. It's a nailed on certainty that there is a whole heap more corruption in the world. People tend to do what they feel they can get away with or won't be pulled up on and then convince themselves it's morally justafiable. Well maybe some people are happy to do wrong in fairness. But the point is, this is human nature. Not acceptable in a civilized society. Don't mistake what I'm saying. So you have to assume there is something going on behind the scenes to artificially alter fair price. Look at what happened when everyone thought the apocalpyse was nigh. We hit a low of circa $30 per barrel only 6 months after being nearly $150!! What ever your opinion on why/if we have a high oil price, I'd be interested to hear it. I'd also really like to know whether anyone else believes that the high price of oil specifically is really hindering any economic recovery. I think it really, really is. Especially where small business is concerned. But that is really just opinion. I feel we need to drop back to somewhere in the region of $50 and hold for a while in order to really "stimulate" the global economy. But can that happen with the Federal Reserve willing to dilute the value of the dollar at any hint of poor data? It's funny how Europe is being pointed out as having an inadequate system when really isn't the entire system currently flawed??
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It's also useful to point out here that when you see confluence of levels and you don't get any strong reaction, that potentially tells you something. Lack of a quick turnaround says to me that anyone looking to short there saw that relatively strong push up and is waiting to see whether any more buying comes in before taking the trade...
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Ideally for this 'thrust' to hold, if we retrace from 47.25 I wouldn't like to see 45's taken (preferably 45.75 would hold).
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I think if we take that are we'd be looking at the open as a target. However, I have had a sneaking suspicion that we'd get a neutral day since fairly early. Doesn't mean it will happen. But you know when people are in buy 'mode' even when we retrace there will be people looking for good pullbacks to get onboard. In fairness the NFP's weren't terrible either.
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So it stopped one-timeframing pre-target and had a 1 tick fail on the low. Very clear target of VWAP/VPOC/midpoint.
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Still "one-timeframing" as we have been all day so far. Will be watching the previously mentioned area closely when(/if) it gets there and then whether or not we stop one-timeframing (i.e. takes out last 30min range high by at least 2 ticks).
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That would tie in with my target of 41.75/42.75. Have a good weekend if you're off now!
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There you go. Little rotation higher followed by extension lower to 27.2% gap/IB extension and start of 6/29 singles (44.75).
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haha, still pushing though now!! I was about to say we were verging on a 1tick new low fail and dollar index was looking like it was primed for a reversal. This is the thing is with trading. Weighing up possibilities and trying not to get spooked out of a good trade. This is a very obvious argument for scaling out if you are a discretionary trader.
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Obama is about to speak. The ES feels like it's being held up somewhat and there's no break in the delta so to speak. I think there's some potential for a test down to somewhere around that 41.75/42.75 area, but current action has me questioning whether it will be now. Still, anything can happen and with a speaker you never know if something will be said and the market will bolt either way. But I think given the action, imho the risk to shorts currently is rising. Not to say it won't break. Just that there are a few signs to the contrary right now.
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NQ weak but coming up against support (5.25) near current low.
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I think that was an uber slow open auction out of range. Looking at what happens on a break of 51.75 or 47.50 now.
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If we move lower during RTH, I'd expect bulls to not want to see prices below 42.75 (6/29 low) and 41.75 low vol, otherwise danger of falling into the big gap below.
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Watch out for the poor data so higher easing expectation move in dollar. So far it has moved higher, but I suspect there's a drop in it. Mind you, if it does I'm sure there'll be people waiting to short euro at 'good' prices. Anything goes! Lol.
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Non-farm payrolls. They cause momentary mass hysteria and are frequently inaccurate. If in doubt, there is a video somewhere of the guy from the BLS explaining how they "estimate" the figure.
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Hi guys. I haven't really looked at the markets over the last couple of days, but a quick observation is we balanced yesterday just below the lower part of prior balance. Given NFP's in a few, this isn't especially shocking behaviour and I expect some directional movement either today or into next week. We shall see.
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Here's a chart for anyone who's interested(/here):-
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Branching out or do you often trade euro along with es? Markets are certainly unidirectional right now. 69.25 btw is the last price before singles from 5/4 up to 74.75. Then beyond that is the low from 5/3 at 78.00 and the gap from 5/3-5/4 at 79.50. The 78.6% retracement from 4/2-6/4 is at 78.50. One to watch perhaps.
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Just a real float up so far then!
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
Again, I think this could well depend on the instrument you are trading and its current affinity to trending behaviour. -
Yeah probably. I wasn't keen on holding anything until after ISM. The 1 tick fail @IB low was good.
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
Oh yeah, the other thing I was going to point out was that by scaling you could well smooth your equity curve and hence ratchet up your size quicker. It's just one method though and probably is better for discretionary