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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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In the strictest sense (no initial balance break at all) since 3/14/7 there have been only ~2.4% of days which are neutral. fyi.
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I just noticed the highlighted 2012 RTH midpoint level should have been placed slightly lower to cover 53 VAH area. I'm not going to redo the chart though.
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A quick chart showing some of the levels I am watching:-
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So the other possibility is that we remain bound by the areas I mentioned above and below (or extend them a little) and continue to balance into the weekend. Considering this, the weekend and news from the middle east must be taken into account. Do people want to be exposed to risk over the weekend that some mass ground invasion takes place? Also I guess the fact that we have moved lower already over the last week or so means risk has already been reduced to some extent for longs. Anyway, the point is we could get into balance for much of the day but see a move into close. Worth being aware of anyway imho.
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For anyone who didn't see yet, ind prod came in at -0.4% exp +0.2% and cap ut 77.8% exp 78.3%. So both lower.
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Did anyone try the Mouse and Keyboard Lock App I found btw?
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It might be worth keeping an eye on yesterday's value area as it was pretty well balanced around wednesday's low. Also, the value area high has been respected in the overnight session.
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Just a reminder that this is happening from this Sunday. As far as I can tell, it shouldn't really affect day traders who close all their positions by 4:15pm EST. The only difference is that from 4-4:15pm the limits (circuit breakers basically) for both day and globex trade will be in force. The 5:30-6:00pm EST window is also extended to 5:15-6:00pm EST.
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I am considering that yesterday's IB Low at 1348.50 (and low at 45.25) and the area between 58.50 (yesterday's high) and 59.75 (base on mp singles from weds) are the important levels to watch. Below and we could well see a test of that 1333.75 area. Above and we could see 65.75/66.50/67.00 area, 69.00 (singles) then 78.00. (with possible s/r levels in between on both sides). Any thoughts?
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What did we do yesterday overall then? Not much as is often the case following a big move. This doesn't always happen of course. Anyway, here's a chart:- The overnight low was put in earlyish in the european session as a test of yesterday's low and only managed 3 ticks beyond that point. At the moment we are near the overnight highs (high is 56.00 right now) and it looks as though we want to push higher. Greece concerns (amongst others) and middle east tensions could lead to the market being jumpy over news items. Also of course is the dark cloud gathering overhead that is the US fiscal cliff. Merkel, EU's Van Rompuy & Rehn and Fed's Lockhart are scheduled to speak later. Industrial production and capacity utilization are the figures due out.
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Just came across this free app:- http://downloads.cnet.co.uk/view/utilities/keyboard-and-mouse-locker-40541576/ Was thinking back to when I traded using TT X-trader and how they introduced a mouse click desktop lock feature to prevent traders (who chose to use it) from inadvertently "fat-fingering" an order. Sounds like a dumb thing to do right? I'd agree. However, the one time out of a zillion when you're that person, you'll feel even dumber (and poorer) for not having used a little feature like this. Anyway I thought that there's probably an app knocking about somewhere which does the same thing and this is the one I found. Pretty neat little app. Does exactly what it says on the tin.Pleased I found it. If anyone has any alternatives or any other neat little apps for trading related stuff, please post here!!
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From Eurozone crisis live: Lagarde demands Greek deal next week | Business | guardian.co.uk "Zombie protesters against the IMF Protesters dressed as zombies gathered near the Philippines' presidential palace to protest against the International Monetary Fund. The demonstration was organised by members of the Freedom for Debt Coalition, in solidarity with people in the eurozone. They carried placards with slogans such as "IMF is an economic zombie" and "IMF is dead. A walking dead". Here are a few pictures of the rally, which took place while Christine Lagarde was holding her meetings and a press conference inside the palace." lol?
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it is options expiration tomorrow
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Interesting movement there. Looked like the sort of move when a figure is released then corrected (nothing out on that though that I know of). Of course it could be that lower prices are being heavily defended...
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-10.7 for philly fed exp +1.5!!
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More useful? To who? For what? And why? That's about as specific as the original question is I'm afraid.
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Well TL got it right that Obama would win but the split was clearly much closer to the percentage of votes rather than the split in Electoral College votes won. There you go.
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Here's a chart with a few thoughts:-
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Oh dear. I don't think those IJC figures are going to be especially supportive of the market especially considering the weak (although expected slightly weaker broadly) Eurozone GDP figures earlier. You never know though. Yesterday was a big down day with major targets achieved. Philly Fed is due later on and there are lots of Fed speakers by the looks of things, including Big Ben.
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Earlier I mentioned I expected that it could well balance into the FOMC minutes. It's important to recognise that this is what I had felt upto a point but we can never know what will happen. Being adaptable to what does happen is of paramount importance. This is what I was looking at:-
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1363.75 is a minor high volume price on the long-term profile, 64.00 is the 27.2% IB extension and 63.50 is the 24 hr low from last friday. Could be worth a look for the market... edit: 63.75 is also a naked close from 8/1
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business inventories slightly higher at 0.7% exp 0.6% - in line with worse retail sales post Sandy?
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test of ovenight vpoc/rth open/mid/vpoc area just failed - possible gap close? business inv @10am (session gap i.e. to yesterday's close (71.75))
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Open auction in range (OAIR) near the centre of the 4 day range - means a move away from value is probably not imminent (or if the balance has developed sufficiently it could well mean the opposite).
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overnight vpoc is not 76.00 which is also a swing high from yesterday afternoon
