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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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For me, if we can't get above and hold the 1340.25's, I think we'll be rolling back down towards a test of 20.75's for a check of balance. Below there and I think a move back to 1307.50/08.50 seems likely. If we we're to break back into the 6-day balance from 1341.00-1369.50, I would suggest that we need to re-test the 1357.00's again as that is low volume and pretty much where yesterday's decent originated from. Much above that and we obviously have the rest of the balance profile but should it hold, once again we'll be in a low volume zone on the long term profile. I'd be looking toward a gap close to 79.50 then the VPOC of the balance I have from 3/13-5/7 at 1386.00 as key prices. Should we get above 57.00 and hold, given the strong move out of short term balance and re-entry into it, the chances of testing higher would be high.
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Possibly, although often on days with FOMC minutes/reports due, there is a move early on followed by chop. Could be the drop yesterday was that move though! We shall see
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It was also the a decent high volume price (1330.25):-
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Brokers who think they can play with client funds. :security:
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Absolutely. I think this is a good idea, although the trouble with that is that then they would be 'visible' client funds and I think there would be issues with qualification of traders to trade. When I started, most people had to take some form of exam to be allowed to trade. In fairness that wasn't retail. Retail traders have to do nothing other than deposit funds! Is it any wonder that there's a whole heap of people trading who don't have the first clue? I think there really needs to be some changes, but honestly I don't know how that'd work precisely.
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Plus, the open was an attempted open-test-drive (OTD) type, testing the 53.75 level. it first got to 56.00 (and actually at that point showed some resistance) then on the 2nd attempt higher only pushed another couple of ticks- as NQ was breaking higher.
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I'm not saying ES won't go higher, but the caveat is on a day like today, if a lot of people think it should go one way and it can't, there could be increased risk in the opposite direction. Some of the early price action ahead of that 57.00 area didn't look to hot to me. We'll see though.
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Get the home address of the owner of your clearing firm?
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European fun for today:-
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One I don't really like those companies and the tools they offer. Two how can you be so sure that the same couldn't happen with them? MF Global for example was a pretty huge firm and that didn't end well did it?
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Yesterday then traded lower and didn't find any new sellers really. I don't think it was a great low but we probably need higher prices to motivate sellers. Central banks are suggesting (and confirming in some cases) more easing which normally means one way movement for stocks(up). ES is still in a now 6-day balance so has some room to test higher. The low volume at the 57.00 area will be an important gauge if it gets there. There's no eco releases of huge importance today and remember there's that Fed Minutes tomorrow. Plus there are some important earnings releases on Friday with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. My bias today would be to explore higher prices. That may be in the current balance or it may break out. Of course there could be news so it's worth keeping an ear out for anything.
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Doesn't look great really. After MF Global debacle, the same question is raised again of what you can really do to ensure your margin is safe?
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Ah, but doesn't noise have it's uses too? It can help show itself for what it is and therefore highlight truly valuable information- and the more of it you see, the quicker you're able to "filter" it out.
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Still not happening:- This Eurogroup is still going on plus there's US Consumer credit in 10 mins.
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I didn't say it will see $50/barrel but it could and I do think it would benefit business and the global economy as a whole. You're right I'd say about the corporations just pushing the price onto consumers, but also in some cases do consumers then consume less because of that? I would think so. But the big impact I feel it could make is on small businesses who haven't got stacks of cash and the demand for their services/products is variable. A small business might have to pay more to employees to keep them if that employee is on low wages and travels to work by car for example. Component parts of their products cost more in energy to build, more in materials, more in labour and more in shipping to get to them. This makes the end product more expensive and a consumer who possibly is struggling financially themself will look at it and potentially choose the cheaper product from the big corporation even if it's lower quality because they can still be competitive on price based on economy of scales/ability invest in cost cutting/efficiency measures.
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Interesting. Although what is 20% of Iran's oil supply in terms of global supply? I didn't find any better data (although I didn't look too hard either) but wiki has some as a guide- note it's mostly from 2009. If 20% of Iran's production as the article suggets is brought back onto the market, 834,400 barrels/day or 0.954% of prior global production would be again available. Is that a massive amount really? Could opec not do much more than that and also could existing refinery efficiency not improve things much more? My guess is that even with the increased supply, if 'they' wanna keep the price high, 'they' will.
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Yeah I think there could be a short squeeze on the cards. Like you said before I think, there seems to be a distinct lack of large players today. Not much volume going through either. So that means ask the question what 'locals' will try to do in this situation. Attempt lower earlier turned from good support at 1341.75. Volume skewed to the low end of the range and we retested that level. However, we could only break by 3 ticks and no significant additional selling (at least none that could overpower buying) entered. So shorts could be trapped and there's still the gap to close which locals love. I think the odds are with a test higher based on that but as always, anything can and often does happen. A bit of news or decent sized business entering the market which needs to be done can turn the market on its head very quickly.
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Cheers! Definitely lots of others who do (inc you) and have in the past posted good info. Looks like you're getting that move back up now perhaps.
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Just noticed that the thread has over 100k views now! Nice little milestone I guess. Thanks to everyone who contributes and anyone who asks questions etc.! Hopefully it's beneficial to people in some way
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Dollar index is also showing a little weakness. Either that could motivate buyers and we'll move up, or if the offers hold firm, as soon as there's a retrace in the $ there could be an attempt lower in ES...
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I think it's possible either way now. The break of 41.75 and IB low didn't get far, but then buying isn't exactly strong right now. We're butting up against the vwap/vpoc right now and if that goes we could see a stronger push up. Below 41.00, although there's the gap to be concerned with, there's also possibly some singles support on the MP down to ~38.00 so any longs could 'let' them try to sell it a little further. That could see a proper break or trapped shorts if it rejects quickly. We'll see. Edit: forgot to say although vwap/vpoc holding, probably needs midpoint to break if to move higher.
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I think really there were two things I noted as to why I wasn't confident on the push higher in that move. One was that despite a push through vwap/mid and reasonable delta, we didn't even get a test of the open/overnight vpoc. Two was that once it fell back to vwap/mid, every time we attempted a few ticks higher, prices went back offered quickly. That said to me that there was some unloading going on and given that we'd already failed to push higher, it looked pretty negative. We've only broken a few ticks so far though, but realistically I'm thinking we could go further.
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Me too. Liked the snap to the 41.75 but didn't like the double tap on it. Not sure whether they might not retry the lower gap at some point. Doesn't have to be today though. Open/Overnight VPOC important now.
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Forgot to mention that there's not a great deal due for release eco fig-wise this week and also financials looked to hold a little strength friday. Will be interesting to see if this is also the case today.
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Debt crisis: live As this link shows, there are a number of EU issues overnight. ECB President Mario Draghi is speaking now, Obama is speaking on middle class tax breaks @ 11:50 ET and then there's Williams and Nowotny later too. The Spanish borrowing cost puts the EU summit in focus again as last time they commited to plan to plan a way of reducing sovereign debt yields. I suppose markets would like to hear more positive speak from there. We are also kicking off Q2 earnings this week with Alcoa due to report after close today and Google, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo later in the week. There's also Fed minutes on Wednesday which we'll be watching for any indication of more QE. Friday held a good level at 41.75 stopping 2 ticks short and rallied into close. Below 41.75 is a big gap to 23.25. Interestingly, the 27.2% extension of the 5 day balance falls exactly at the half gap at 34.75. Looking above if we are strong, 57 is a price I'd watch to see if it can be broken followed by the gap close to 61.75. Above there and if 69.50 is taken we could make inroads into re-establishing in the upper balance from right hand chart and close gap to 79.50. We'll see.
