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TheNegotiator

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator

  1. TheNegotiator
    I would say a 'worth the risk' long at 50.
  2. TheNegotiator
    and there you go ...
  3. TheNegotiator
    Interesting open. Looked like a open-drive, but then size has come in at 55.75 absorbing the buying:-
  4. TheNegotiator
    Nice description of what I agree was actually a pretty decent day. Two especially good trades which weren't too hard to get on were the short from 49.75 down to 43.25 and the reversal back to 49.75/52.00 gap close. Nice shaped balanced profile into Bernanke today, centred around those developments I mentioned pre-open yesterday. Glad it went well for you!
  5. TheNegotiator
    8:30am numbers all pretty much as expected. Industrial production due at 9:15am and NAHB housing at 10am. Earnings pretty much all a bit better so far with GS a notable beat. All eyes are going to be on the Bernanke testamony - the speech which will have a text released for it at the time and the Q&A after.
  6. TheNegotiator
    I think a "skilled practitioner" could help. However, the skill level and suitability of what the teacher is presenting to a student isn't always immediately obvious - especially when the very reason the student seeks help is because they do not have sufficient knowledge themselves. The other problem I see is that in many cases the material taught is about the strategy itself rather than the mental approach to the strategy which I believe is the essence of excellence. This could be because the teacher isn't that skilled, or because they do not recognise it in themself as the reason for their success. The other problem is often a teacher has a class of many students and simply cannot give the necessary time to individuals. However, having said all of this, an excellent teacher who is an excellent trader is likely to be beneficial to an aspiring trader. Either way, this thread is about looking at some simple key aspects to your approach to trading in order to improve your consistency and accelerate your development.
  7. TheNegotiator
    Yes, this is not really the place and I believe you have understood my use of the word anyway . However, for the purposes of clarity, single quotations in UK English may be used for cited phrases. As it pertains to trading, it is my assertion that 'intuition' is just that.
  8. TheNegotiator
    Good Monday morning everyone! I hope everyone is suitably refreshed and raring to go. Lots of things going on this week. Earnings, Europe stuff, Bernanke, Figures..... Poor retail sales seemed to be absorbed earlier but Citigroup earnings beat. A few thoughts:
  9. TheNegotiator
    Yeah I was looking at the 40's as pretty important support now, but would also say the 57's(/58.50's) is a potentially important resistance. Honestly, with all the news/earnings/QE uncertainty, there's certainly a chance of us moving either way. However, I think to move higher we do need to hold 40's and take out 57's within a day or two.
  10. TheNegotiator
    I agree about "the zone" being about focus to some degree. I think it's important to make another distinction here. Instinct ≠ intuition. Instinct is that biologically or environmentally engrained urge for a specific reaction to certain situations. Intuition is the seemless understanding of a culmination of events without any real need to think things through. This requires focus, knowledge, understanding and experience together, but these things are not intuition in their own right. So whilst instinct provides an urge to act, intuition in itself does not. Perhaps then "the zone" requires instinctual action to intuitive understanding. One last observation would be that it is imho that "the zone" is virtually devoid of emotion. Anyway, it's definitely an interesting side topic but like you said, a trader doesn't need to be in "the zone" to be successful
  11. TheNegotiator
    Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy or not, my interpretation of intuition is about the culmination of knowledge (and experience and understanding etc.). Whether these things culminate in a 'good' assessment of the current market conditions depends on the level of skill and focus of the individual. However, in all cases intuition is different from emotion. The point is that a feeling about the market doing x or y can stem from intuition or emotion. Btw I do hesitate to keep using the word 'emotion' because I'm really referring to an excess of any emotion which causes a change in perception rather than the less intense emotions as humans we experience all the time (I know some will argue all emotions matter, but again I'm trying to keep things relatively simple here). With that interpretation of intuition in mind, I would say that it is a positive thing to leverage in your trading. It's not necessarily that you have to jump and immediately place or exit a trade when you have intuition. That wouldn't be sensible. Unless you are the type of trader who upon signal x you always enter a trade without fail, you will take some trades and pass on others. But if you can work within the bounds of your well thought out plan to capitalise on your intuition, then with good experience and understanding you will be able to select some good trades. Agreed. What I really meant is we should try to focus on the issue when we identify it and try to keep the solution as simple as possible. Journalling provides many with a really excellent way to go through how they're trading and to spot patterns which they may miss otherwise. I think the problems is in many cases that people don't know what to journal as wrb points out. Just filling in trades you take isn't useful. You need to sit down and look at possible aspects which may or may not affect your trading and then create a simple and easy to fill in/read format to fully encapsulate the data. If you do it electronically, you could even assign values to specific information in order to chart certain aspects of the data. Definitely. An important aspect of this is when you really approach it in this way, you're able to 'deconstruct' your trading into its component parts. By doing this, you can see where you're going wrong more specifically and better work on the aspect which is holding you back. Such a simple point and yet so important. Mental focus in trading is critical. These days, when I'm not focussed and I see something in the market, I more often than not pass the trade up. Even if the trade would have worked, I'm okay with that because I know I wasn't in the right place to properly assess the opportunity. Taking trades when unfocussed for any reason often doesn't end well.
  12. TheNegotiator
    Fast, I think sometimes psychology can be rather overcomplicated. Afterall, we're trying to keep emotions in check to improve results, rather than analyse ourselves and come up with the meaning of life. Just so other potential posters know, that really really is not the goal of this thread. There are simple things that every trader can think through then do well to improve their trading. As far as (strong) emotions go, I personally want to minimise their occurance, minimise/control their impact and be able to differentiate between emotions and intuition. The last point is vital to me. Intuition is the culmination of knowledge and is very much a part of that mythical "zone" we traders strive for. Yet intuition can be confused with emotion in the heat of battle. Usually it's that when you have an emotionally tied view on a market and potential trade/exit, you think somehow it's intuition. This is something which always needs to be kept in check. Conversely, not trusting yourself when the intuition is real can be an opportunity missed. Overall, striving for a higher degree of emotional balance can help with all these three points. How you achieve this however might not be so simple. Meditation and physical exercise are things I have found useful in maintaining my objectivity throughout the day. Actually though, mental focus is also tied in imho. If I trade unfocused and get myself into trouble, emotions being to brew at the very least. I also find sleep and blood sugar levels to be important. Whatever might help you, it's my opinion that addressing the issue properly is only going to be a positive thing...
  13. TheNegotiator
    My point exactly. But it's important to still put the information out there. I guarantee though, had I named the thread "Ichimoku cloud trading masterclass" there'd have been way, way more views by now.
  14. TheNegotiator
    I have noted this on a number of occasions in the past, but it's always interesting to me to see how the market lines up its structure whether or not it trades those prices again in the current session. For example, right now the midpoint, the first high to see any decent pullback and important long term low volume sit ~40. The market is telling you it's a price which it is interested in...
  15. TheNegotiator
    Thanks Steve, nice post. Straight forward look at the open and how it can give you a clue to what trading might lie ahead for the day. I think OTD's or even where there's no actual 'drive' as such, can provide excellent opportunities for those who have done their homework, know the context, appropriately assigned risk and are willing to take information risk early on. I understand what you're saying here but I'm not sure it's strictly fair either. To discuss and learn with all levels of traders is good. Challenges to understanding only serve to reinforce sound concepts.
  16. TheNegotiator
    However, I think the real issue is in the last hour we've had a range of 3.75pts. Not to say we can't move now or later on in the session, but currently we're not doing much.
  17. TheNegotiator
    Well if we weren't to hold 44's, vwap + low vol at 43ish could support us, then that low volume zone on the long term profile is coming in at the lower development of the current session profile down to the mid point. If.
  18. TheNegotiator
    Quick chart to show the volume which came in at 44's earlier, for those who didn't see it:-
  19. TheNegotiator
    Those 44's where vol cam in earlier are holding for the min. could turn up here or if they get taken, possibly need to test lower.
  20. TheNegotiator
    Lol. Markets are only 'irrational' when they are moving against your position!
  21. TheNegotiator
    If you're not long right now, it may be worth being a little bit patient here. Open was strong and levels so far have been blasted through! This could be the prelude to continuation to the upside or it could be a short covering rally. Time will tell. Of course it's always possible that we turn around and make new lows by the end of the day, which would put a completely different spin on the day. Markets have been swinging one way and then the other in recent times.
  22. TheNegotiator
    Wow, some size coming in around 44's
  23. TheNegotiator
    I think that given the way the fed are fiddling with the markets, medium-term analysis can a little difficult. I've been saying for a while now that the real value of the stock market is not good, but it continues to go up in $ value as Fed inflates and $ becomes less and less valuable (and stable).
  24. TheNegotiator
    Not that it currently matters. As they say "the markets can remain rational longer than you can remain solvent" (Keynes). Although it's also possible that a trader can overlook the glaringly obvious and therefore misalign themselves with what is actually a perfectly rational market! Lol.
  25. TheNegotiator
    I think it should be pointed out here that "one swallow doth not make a summer" :-
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