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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Definitely. You just know that every trader and his brother would have been going short and so when it couldn't follow through with the context of the big gap, euro worries etc., there'd almost certainly be people needing to cover.
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Academic Achievers = Better Traders?
TheNegotiator replied to Mysticforex's topic in General Trading
The trouble is that academic success usually only measures (and doesn't always do a good job) a small part of human intelligence and is in many cases severly narrowed with the often scientific/mathematical requirements asked for by companies advertising for jobs (obviously this isn't the only route into trading but it kinda helps to perpetuate the myth nevertheless). Logical/mathmatical intelligence is only part of the equation for the probability of a trader's success, but I don't believe it is entirely necessary either. How much mathematics is really required? Look at the pit "type" traders. I think a better skill to have is situational awareness and spatial pattern recognition. These are associated far more with social ability. Although also, humans are very adaptable and just because someone seems to be socially adept, it really doesn't mean they have these specific skills either. They could have adapted themselves in spite of a huge deficit to their emotional intelligence/personality. Human intelligence not only includes memory, conceptual understanding and logical application, but also emotional understanding and self control, perception, judgement, spatial/pattern recognition and probably other things that aren't immediately coming to mind! Clearly some of these things may be factors in certain areas of academia but others won't be tested much if at all. Intelligence in its fullest form however, is only part of the equation for success in trading. Other important factors include motivation, determination, concentration, discipline, self-belief, strucured application and again probably other things which right now do not spring to mind!! So getting back to the original question of whether academic success is correlated with trading success, I suspect probably not. However, like in any performance endeavour, to be the best of the best requires a fusion of most if not all abilities. So I also suspect that the most successful traders are those who naturally had academic success. -
Yep. Important you stayed disciplined. One thing I would say is sometimes you get these real grinder days and when you do it's really important to not let it fool you into going against it unless it shows you something to strongly suggest a reversal is possible. Here's the chart to explain what I said in the last post for anyone who didn't understand:-
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Bad luck. I felt that once it moved back away from low vol 40.75 again, there were some nice upside high vol targets + half gap.
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As an indicator of yourself, that's a pretty good one. Shows your timing is a little off probably and is a good time to stop trading- esp when +ve for the day . The thing is, all this kind of thing usually does is suck people back in - "Damn I was right, where can I get back in", is the thought preceding several losing trades in a row. :crap:
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36.25/35.75 important .
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Just to point out here, not saying that this will be a turn in the market, but see how the market is reacting to the possibility it could turn from the area. It frequently does this whether or not there is a turn from the area.
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Forgot to point out that if you look at the chart, this current 'pullback' is the first major one since the move down started last thursday.
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Definitely. Pushes again as I'm writing though. Lol. The highlighted area could act as resistance and if it breaks through that could well be a strong hint at what might be next.
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Btw, that 1 tick break of the IB high given what I said, does not look great...
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On this trade alone? How much did you add??
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Given the action so far- i.e. OD down after big gap down, followed by a poor extension, I'm looking to see what happens at the 40.25 level. 40.50 is also the 27.2% extension of the IB and if we breach that (possibly upto 42ish) I think there'd be a decent chance of a decent attempt into the gap.
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35.50/35.75 is important to hold for shorts.
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The question which needs to be asked is what is a double bottom/top telling you. It tells me that it is an area that although there was sufficient opposing trade to reverse the market, it was not especially convincing. i.e. it couldn't reverse with conviction before retesting it. So if the same area is again approached, does it matter how we approach the area? Does it make a difference if we are moving towards the area as part of a strong move or if it is simply more of a range expansion?
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The other thing I'd point out is that the market OD'd lower on open after gapping 20 points lower. Is a 6.75 IB something which would be consistent with that? Not saying it can't be and either reverse or break lower later, but it seems a pretty small IB right now considering.
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Plus mid/vwap area held...
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One, trying to buy before the market has shown you it's done selling when it's gapping down 20-odd points on european debt concerns was not good. Two, although the 39.25 (from 7/17) was possible support, I still liked 40.25 better. Either way I don't really count it as a double bottom in that it didn't retest it on 2 separate swings. It went to 39.75 then to 41.50 only before then touching 39.25. Just too tight imo to be called a double bottom as such. In any case, is buying at a double bottom something you feel is always a good idea?
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If you're talking about #4704, I don't see any images either.
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What are they in your opinion? Also, are you talking about right now or over the last few days?
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What do you trade ?
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Ah, long time Ivan! How have you been mate?
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How am I criticising you or anyone else Ronin? I was merely pointing out that for many, one point is a very tight stop. I know some people do trade like this and if it works for you then that's honestly great.
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Where does the 1pt risk start from? The average of the entries at 66.75? 1pt stop is quite tight for most traders. It's interesting to see different styles at work I guess...
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How is any of what I said "waiting for confirmation"? All of the information was readily available before the market got to that location. Who said I missed the trade btw? Edit: sorry, "looking for confirmation"
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I definitely agree about timing. A 'good' price is only good momentarily in time whether you are looking in terms of days or minutes or seconds. So it's imperitive to get your timing close as well as your entry price. Anyway Rob, could you repost your colour coding key for your chart please? Ty.