TheNegotiator

Perhaps, perhaps not. To start with there are aspects which are very similar to most days. It gapped lower on RTH open, tested the overnight low, then tried to close the gap. It failed twice at the 50% of the ECB move and the low of the last 30mins from yesterday and then turned. Then some news about spain came out and we plummeted pretty damn quickly. The day has not even finished yet. What days like today do is make good money for those with a set plan and who know what they are looking at and it runs over those who don't really know and need time to decide what to do- or are just motivated into trading against their plan because those fruit machine lights are flashing.

Nice short mate !

Careful !

Btw, it's useful to point out where structure is form from. Today is quite obvious. The current high is the 50% of the move down post ECB release.

Yeah, that's very important to be aware of. Getting a good price at a good time is potentially very important anyway. Trend traders usually wait for pullbacks so even they will want the 'best' price they can get if they believe the market is going to continue in their direction. Big news events do often retrace to the "scene of crime" if there is nothing groundbreaking to price into the market. NFP's often see this kind of reversal too. Personally goodoboy, although others might disagree (and there's always more than one way to go about your business, so I'm not suggesting they'd be wrong so to speak) I would question your logic for trading before RTH open. For a new guy, I'd suggest not even trading the first 5-10 minutes (and on some days 30-60 mins). The open provides a reaction of the underlying stocks to any change in price and allows you to identify the level and type of activity of bigger players early on. It provides some structure to play off for the rest of the day too.

Indeed!! Here's a chart for reference:-

When I mention "systematic issues" just to be clear, I'm talking about whether there are flaws to the method or the application of said method. I'm not saying there are but as I pointed out, without knowing all the details I think it's difficult to know. That being said, if the method is working for a period then suddenly stops and repeats this cycle, then yes there's a decent chance it's to do with who's controlling the market and the context that goes with that. Part of what I do (and talk about lots in the forum) is based on market auctions and "Market Typing" is a fundamental part of this. The reason I hadn't mentioned it was due to an assumption that having traded for 3 years, jpennybags would have at least some idea that there will be different times in a market where different strategies work better than others. So I was focussing more on the recent 3 week trial period. I think maybe the assumption was at least in part wrong, bearing in mind that I've never traded stocks as such. This statement of course relies on another assumption. This is that the method JPB is using is to look for stocks exhibiting certain behaviours and then trade them, rather than trade either 1 or a hand full of stocks all the time through all conditions. Either way, I agree with you zdo!:thumbs up:

ADP came in better than expected. We have ISM at 10am then FOMC at 2:15pm. FOMC takes centre stage of course although ISM is a good figure. Anyway, here's a chart:-

From e-mini thread:- You know, over the past few days the market has been exhibiting a certain trait. That is it's moving up on nothing news. It's hanging on hope and possibilities. When markets do this, it's often a precursor for reversal. Can the Fed and the ECB flip a switch at will and make things better? Wouldn't they have done this already if they could have? So it's all about market confidence. Just as no confidence has an affect, so does over-confidence. However, I'd also point out that there's something rather artificial about markets at the moment (not just QE). So there's no guarantee any reversal will be any more than a correction. If something big doesn't change though in order to straighten out the markets, I feel there's a chance we'll need a blow out in order to naturally straighten things out.

Regardless of whether or not I personally believe that you're method as outlined for determining a trend is good, the old saying does indeed go:- "The trend is your friend," and "except when it's about to end." So, my question is do you have an objective method for determining whether the trend may have come to an end before the price activity breaks certain markers?

First off I'd say that you sound like you're set on at least trying futures. If that's the case then I say give it a go. There are lots of different markets to trade so look at them. 1 - I'm not sure if getting up at 4am is something I'd be especially keen on but if that's what you do anyway then fair play. If you want to trade gold futures, that period pretty much cover it by the looks of things if you want to trade it when it's liquid (which is something you'll always want to do unless you're a turtle ) 2 - Gold is seen as an inflation hedge and a less risky place to have money. So it's affected by economic issues probably far more than individual stocks. It's possibly worth watching ES, DX(/6E), CL, ZN to get a feel for the overall market conditions. They won't necessarily always move in lockstep, but the point is that if they are all moving about quite a bit, gold is likely to aswell. Recently, if this is the 3 week period you are referring to when you sim traded it, there has been a great deal of news flow due to European issues. This kind of thing has bearing on the behaviour of futures markets. So being aware of all eco releases, speeches, unscheduled comments, geopolitical events and so on is pretty useful. That's not to say you should trade off them necessarily. Apart from this, without knowing your trading method, patterns, times or days when losing streaks happen and so on, it's difficult to say whether there might be systematic issues at work. 3 - Leverage is clearly the biggest thing to understand as a function of risk. So it's very important you are sticking to a strong risk plan. A reasonable size account (and actually any size) can be wiped out very quickly indeed and you can lose more than what's in your account. The other thing to be very very clear on is that futures contracts deliver. Gold rolls to a new contract every other month. One, you need to be trading where the volume and hence liquidity is and two, you need to not hold any position into contract expiry. I've heard horror stories of oil tankers rolling up on some poor trader's drive because they were delivered. Some futures are cash settled, but I believe gold is a physical delivery contract. It's not something that should ever happen, but it can happen. So just know that it's there and the contract you should be trading etc.

I read Db's The Trading Journal/The Trading Log thread and thought about how useful it is for a trader to plan and journal as outlined. I'm actually unsurprised but frustrated at how little attention the thread has got so far(perhaps though, it’s not in the ideal forum location ). People are always far more interested in trade system x and make y dollars. Well you do have to find a method you're comfortable with as a starting point I guess, but that's where the usefulness of pursuing this type of post ends. Anyway, I thought about how the importance of journalling in particular is often stressed (and often falls on deaf ears) but how infrequently I see people talking about what they do with the journal material. More specifically, when they spot negative behavioural patterns, what they do to make changes on a permanent basis and avoid relapses. Do you know that you're doing something wrong and yet you find yourself in the same dumb position time and time again? Well, it's not an especially unusual situation. Trading requires changing natural behaviours and so well-formed predispositions to certain events can have a negative influence on trading. This is at its core about how habits and responses are formed by the action of repetition over time. It doesn't matter whether these things are particularly useful or not. In fact, there is a case to argue that in certain situations actually negative behaviour is 'easier' to turn into an automatic response. So the ability to identify and change behaviour over time is not only important, but critical for a trader to survive and flourish in what's a dog-eat-dog trading world. First of all I like others, would point out that although having relapses is a potentially costly experience, it means that you’re probably on the right track towards making the change you’ve identified. The very fact that you’ve identified the problem, resolved to do something positive instead and created a plan to deal with it, means you are a step ahead. The first thing is of course to see that some behavioural pattern is indeed an issue. Journalling and review done correctly should really help you do this over time. Once you have identified the perceived problem you must study it. Study when it happens. Is it to do with market conditions or your own condition? How does it specifically affect your account? How frequently does it occur? If it’s specifically related to trading action, what would your account realistically look like if you removed the affected trades? By doing this you not only work out whether the issue is a big problem, but you also take responsibility for it. Memory on the other hand can be quite biased or at least conflicting. For example, you’ll not only remember that the issue lost money at a certain time, but that you clung on and didn’t lose money another time. The hope caused by that can be dangerous. If you see the actual consequences, you are much more likely to feel the problem and stick to measures designed to eliminate it. When you are ready to start the change, the key is to make it a conscious part of your routine. Adapt your journal and review process to include very specific information on the problem/change. Like with any new task and especially one where you are attempting to break an engrained habit, conscious effort is required to give yourself the best possible chance of practicing the change and therefore ultimately making it habit. There’s this push-pull between the unconscious automatic responses and carefully considered conscious responses before the two become aligned. Often when the market does something different to what you expect of it, the automatic can take over if you’re not constantly aware of the potential for that to happen. To compound this, it’s frequently behaviours which are infrequent in their occurrence and so easily slip the mind. Although studying relapses is painful, it’s also important. Once you’ve started practicing the change, relapses are often only in extreme cases and therefore provide a special insight into circumstances leading to their occurrence. When you see improvement, don’t stop. Focus your efforts on what you did to make the change and sustaining those actions. The key to successfully changing old and negative habits is practice. So be honest with yourself so that the practice you are doing is the right practice. Judge your actions properly and don’t give excuses about why you did this or didn’t do that. It’s much easier to lie to yourself than someone else and so accountability is also crucial to success.

Don't worry about it unless you want me to move it. Although trading plans aren't the point of the thread, they are clearly important so to mention them occasionally is fine by me.

Didn't trade myself yesterday. Looks like it was just great :sleep: Test higher, test lower and drift. Lots of earnings out this week plus fed, boe and ecb rate decisions followed by nfp's on Friday. Anyway, here's the chart from Monday:-

Not that trading is ever 'certain' but clearly more recently we have had a period of uncertainty. European debt issues, US elections/QE3/debt ceiling, middle eastern conflicts, far eastern instability, global slowdown, etc. When markets are like this I personally enjoy them. I like the movement in general and perform better. But I know this isn't the same for all traders or investors. Obviously different people have different objectives and therefore trade the markets in different ways. My question therefore is what is the effect of uncertainty and newsflow on your trading and how do you deal with it? Do you trade any differently with different strategies and risk parameters? Do you trade different markets than you usually do? Do you perform better or worse? Or does everything stay pretty much the same for you?

Absolutely agree Db. Just as good practise makes permanent, bad practise does too. If you do something again and again without assessing its efficacy, you might get really lucky and nail it first time, but the chances are you can improve upon what you're doing at the very least and you could be approaching it completely wrong. If this is the case, you're only making it harder to correct problems down the line. This is one reason why prop shops usually only ever take completely 'fresh' trainee traders with no prior exposure to trading.

Hahaha! According to the organisers Joe Allen is also English (Welsh international footballer playing for 'Team GB'). Plus they have already insulted the North Koreans by using the South Korean flag! Unbelievable. Still, Mitt Romney called Ed Miliband "Mr Leader". Dumbass. (I know technically he's the leader of the opposition, but nobody else wanted the job!) Anyway, I hope 'Team GB' does well. I won't particularly follow it but I might watch a bit here and there. In spite of other comments, I think it is a good thing to have the olympics. I know it's expensive and a big disruption, but also it gives people a bit of pride (or shames them into doing things better) and inspires many especially young people. Maybe Mystic should arrange a "trading olympics" instead of the standard forex comp.

Is this something you look at as part of your plan?

If anyone wants to do something interesting, here's a task. Find out the last time we had 2 consecutive range gaps in the same direction of more than say 1 point.

Current bigger balance picture:-

That's funny, I see the image in your reply too. Try an alternative browser.

So over since 6/29 we have been balancing between 19.75 and 76.00- establishing higher 'value' than the preceding months. You could also say that we could combine that with the current balance zone to form a larger area, but in fairness activity for me is interesting primarily on a shorter timeframe. I do look at both though to get an idea. Anyway. We've been back and forth through the balance VPOC of the current 1348.00 (which was rejected yesterday) quite a bit with 57.00 delineating upper balance activity. Yesterday we had a neutral day which straddled the main part of a long-term profile development and although we couldn't hold above 57.00 (which again was a great area to use) and the 58.50 held the high, a thorough test of the prior 3 day balance looked to have given us some impetous to the upside. Either way, we look to be coming to a crossroads imho. Do we break higher and explore prices up to current yearly high (1411.25 back adjusted high) or do we fail and move lower? Will the answer come imminently? With European issues unclear as is US QE3, there could be questions over what will happen. However, the central banks are all saying that they'll do whatever it takes to sort things out. So I guess the question is do the markets believe it or at least feel it's worth the risk? We'll see I guess

.

I don't think it's the case that people aren't paying attention. I think it's very interesting, but perhaps there's a better place for them in the forum. Maybe the Traders Log would be better?

If it starts to develop below the upper balance extreme (48.75) it could either just slide lower, or test the extreme again before deciding to move lower or move higher again. Just to but this into context, current range is much lower than last three days. This could mean we will see range extension. However, the pattern has been over the last few weeks that we get a few big days then some much smaller ones dotted in between.