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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Absolutely. But, there is certainly merit in having rules to allow you to take trades outside of a plan. I think the point is that whilst it's very important to have a plan, becoming fixated by it at times may lead your trading into being rather one-dimensional. Of course, if you're taking more trades outside of a plan than in it, maybe it's worth changing the plan.
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If you extend the range back to 3/14/7, you have a double distribution in the large consolidation area. The centres of those DD's are 1422.50 & 1486.00.
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Morning everyone. Pretty tight ranges Mon/Tues then? Here's a chart:-
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New MarketDelta Trader Software
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Tools of the Trade
I'm pretty sure that with Market Delta 10.6 you can now run Market Delta Trader through it and use your brokerage data for your charts. I suspect many will really appreciate this feature. -
Anyway, I hope everyone had a productive week and have a great weekend! See you all next week.
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Area came right back into play when it did break lower...
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It's all about timing. Had we pushed up a little above the balance high at 87.50 and moved back down fairly soon, that would say to me that the balance was still active and higher prices were motivating sellers. Stay up there for a while and the chances are they're gonna squeeze any shorts. Stay there too long and given it's a Friday and the big move from yesterday's close, the chances are that some longs are going to cover. Edit: when I say "stay there too long" I mean without moving much higher.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
TheNegotiator replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
As I said in the Day Trading the E-mini Futures thread, it's nice to have you join in! I hope you benefit from some of the ideas and trades we talk about and I'm sure you'll have something to add. Welcome to TL. -
For which market would strong oil be bad?
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Definitely cisco and cme handbook are good to start with. Just don't get obsessed with market profile imho. I think we're building for a squeeze up towards 1400 probably later. I'm thinking we might get a shakeout first though. Just an idea and an opinion... Edit:sorry it's the cme handbook now but originally was the cbot market profile handbook.
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So where would it have to go or what would you have to see to get you out of the other half?
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Possibly. It's a good place to start imho. I would then read "Markets in Profile". If you follow the thread aswell, you'll start to get a better idea of auctions. It is just one approach though and what is most important is how you incorporate your trade management and psychology into your trading method. Are you still in that same trade as you were earlier btw?
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During the market hours, it's better to talk as much as possible about what's actually going on and ideas etc. I don't think it's unreasonable to discuss ideas about risk:reward, trade management, or anything else, but maybe it's more appropriate to look at after the close If it's about trades you're in or have just taken though, that's all good.
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plus there's that volume at mid 84.00.
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People should take what ANYONE says with a barrow full of salt! Looking forward to it.
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What is your read? I think there's a good chance either way right now. We've gapped up strongly but not following through much other than slightly extending above balance area. Given it's Friday, we could sit here for the next few hours then either break down hard or if there are no real signs of sellers attempting to take control, we could certainly squeeze into the end of the week. One thing that should be noted is that if this is still in balance (short term balance covers the last 5 days), wouldn't responsive sellers have stepped in a little more already considering the location? I'm not say this will happen or that won't, just putting out some thoughts.
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Glad you've decided to join in! What's your idea then? Still strong so keep pushing until it turns?
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Okay then, let's get back to the main focus of the thread then So far we have gapped up strongly and tested above Monday's high. Didn't find any new buyers but the market did move strongly through the 5-day balance. So do we A- take that as a failure to find buyers and consider shorting, B- consider that given the move so far we might need to muster some more buying energy before breaking higher, or C- have done all the work we're going to for the week and just have to wait until Monday? We're pretty near the weekly rth open at 79.25 so any move down and that could come into play esp later on in the day. New high already put in for the week. What will be of interest is how we trade over the next few hours relative to the main development in the 5-day balance.
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Okay so NFP headline out at 163k vs 100k and last month 80k revised to 64k. There were various other considerations making the release potentially less positive but given the market seems to want to go up anyway, I don't think it'll be too difficult to move up further. Market as near as damn it tested the balance vpoc at 48.50 yesterday (49.25 low) and moved higher into close. My thinking right now is a test of the top of the ecb move is on the cards @83.00. Anything can happen though :missy:
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1- Your risk is what you make it whilst you're in the trade, I agree. However, the important aspect is what the market will do relative to the market and not your trade. If your risk is max 2 pts say and you enter 2.5 pts above support (whether it be a level, ma, pp, fib, open, close or whatever you believe the market reacts to), then in many cases you're going to be exiting prematurely without giving the market a chance to reverse. If you think about it, if you didn't have a position then you might even be looking to enter the market at this point for the same reason. 2- Unless you have no targets at all, the taking of your reward can be controlled in exactly the same way as your risk. You can't control whether on any specific trade your target or stop get hit - the market does that for you. Now this isn't to say that you should always get out at your max stop or target and not before. I think it's important to understand that when you enter a trade it's good to have an idea of market potential. Otherwise you'll end up taking lots of well controlled losses buying highs and selling lows - and that wouldn't be good :doh:
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Yeah, I am looking at a test of 47.50/48.50 area possibly at some point. Want to see what happens here are 57.00 which was important a few days back. The point here is we gapped down, retested the upper development from the prior 4-day balance and rolled over extending down below friday's low. Often a rejection of one balance leads to a retest of 'fair value' of another. So the VPOC area is important to test imho...
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I don't think you need to beat yourself up too much on a trade like that. It's the compounding of good solid trades (just like interest - well maybe not right now) that'll make you money in the long run and not one or two big trades. There were always rumours of million pound trades that people made but they were often lucky too. Like stupid orders luckily filled when markets spiked wildly. Or trades being stupidly offside that never should have been. You still did pretty well on the trade. Plus I've seen moves like that which end up reversing with double the strength and after making you 'believe' that they'll get you onside again, they hit you for six (or "out the park" if that's the US version).
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The e-minis are futures contracts of cash indices of a basket of stocks. ES is basically made up of the 500 stocks of the s&p 500 index. So when those stocks aren't trading, it's not a proper indication of what the market will do. Plus volume is much lower, although on a day like today people do their business early on. But then again, when it's moving wildly I'm not sure I'd advise a new trader to do anything other than watch, but watch with intent to understand (don't just stare blindly at the screen). The bigger players (or OTF in MP terms) and the structure created early on is all about MP and auction theory. You really should read "Mind Over Markets" and then ask questions as otherwise you could be a little confused. If you do, just don't get too hung up on all the details. It's not all relevant anymore but it's a good grounding nonetheless. Basically lots of big players trade early on and depending on what they do relative to where the market has moved, it can give you an idea of how the market may trade for the rest of the day. The way the market opens is pretty important and can give you, all things being equal, an excellent heads up on at the very least how not to trade .
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Yeah I did wonder. It's important as I'm sure you realise but perhaps others are less aware, that maximizing profit when you have a great trade on is pretty important. It's too easy to not want to lose what you 'have' already. This is exactly that experiment about the saving the human race. Group 1 given choice of definitely saving half the human race with vaccination A or the chance of saving everyone or nobody with B. Group 2 had choice of definitely half not surviving or 50:50 chance of everybody or nobody making it. Group 1 choose A, group 2 choose B. Nuts but very similar to how we react naturally to winning or losing trades. Anyway, I'll fess up too. I saw that move down pretty hard and tried to hit it again. Got a pretty terrible price of just below low vol at 65 and nearly closed that part off. Sometimes when the market moves like that though, it could be about to really dump like mad (algos/hfts going haywire was my 'hope') lol. The reversals can be very nasty on moves like that which fail, so you have to be very careful if it doesn't follow through. Figured it was worth a roll of the dice and it paid some but not what I'd hoped. Out now around open. I know we're lower now but sometimes that's just the way the cookie crumbles. But that's not the way I'd normally choose to trade.