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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Overnight so far it seems we are looking to push lower and have shown little appetite for a move back up. We are approaching the lower end of the 8/7-8/15 range at 1392.00 (drawn in chart from 8/6-8/15) so buyers imho are going to need to 'turn up' soon or we might be heading for a test of 80.75 and possibly beyond. Who knows though, ach. :missy:
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Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
All of what you've said makes sense. I'm not trying to predict the market but just think it through and figure out what I will be looking at if it does certain things. There are risks that I see to both sides of the argument. "Risk on" has the chance that a bank will collapse or more likely Greece will pull out of Europe and default. In spite of there being lots of money 'sloshing' about, I'd point out that the only thing worse than not making money is losing money. True, if inflation starts to pick up then in real terms this money will be less valuable. Perhaps that is the answer. Scare the money into action with inflation! On the "Risk off" side of things, there's clearly the chance that when Europe says that they will do everything to keep the Euro together, they will actually be able to deliver. Plus there's the fact that commodities and bonds etc. have run up all this way already. But then if it's part of a much longer term trend, then the prices we currently see in commodities could be cheap. Gold at $1000 or oil at $50 seemed expensive not too long ago. Then there's what I believe about this move in stocks being mostly down to 1- speculation and 2- currency devaluation. So actually although we've moved up a great deal since early 2009, realistically I don't believe the move to be down to strengthening economic conditions. If the economy started to boom, the S&P 500 could top 2000 plus some imho. Having said all this, my intention for the thread is to really talk more about the bigger near term technicals so as not to get too bogged down by intraday stuff and miss the really salient information. Looking at this, I see signs that the market 'wants' to correct to some extent. This desire could add fuel to the fire for the bulls, it could move the ES down 50 points from top to bottom or it could end up the start of a bigger correction. But who really knows anyway. There will be some who are 'right' in what they are saying will happen but then is that because they really know? What I know is I don't have to be right to make money -
Hi vertigo. Good to see you get involved! The horizontal histograms are indeed the volume profiles. The short term profiles (left chart when I post 2 together) are regular trading hours (RTH) profiles. i.e. 09:30-16:15 ET. The longer term profiles (right chart) are still based on RTH but combine data. So the biggest profile is all the data from the beginning of the chart (which I specify) and then there are various balances which I look to capture too. I don't use MP in general although I do have it up as I feel it highlights "singles" well and the market responds well to them. Also, if there's a decent disparity between the volume generated and market profile (TPO) generated point of control ((V)POC) I like to look at why that is. Time does count The shorter term chart I often use volume based candles to gauge activity although you could use a sub 1 minute time based chart too. Actually this might be better if you're new at all as I watch the market so see the pace as it trades. Hope that helps to start with!
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Early DOORS! Means the same thing though
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What's quite interesting although it's early doors yet, is that the profile in spite of the market moving lower is still fairly well balanced:-
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Sometimes it's in the price action. Just before the break lower, I saw a little 'jump' higher as it was trying to push down. Call it what you will, but if that was a genuine strong buyer stepping in, they would've likely been able to take it higher than 1407.75. A break below the highlighted trendline and vpoc (was 06.25) cemented the view in my mind that we were heading lower. Edit: forgot to mention that was also where the overnight low was @07.50
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The ES traded pretty well yesterday. It was all about the Fed though. Make no mistake, the Fed minutes suggesting members leaning towards easing moved us up and this morning, comments contrary to those minutes from Fed's Bullard moved us down. I'm expecting some sort of probe lower. However, I also suspect that the market will require some sort of clarification before committing one way or the other. Initial Jobless Claims won't help bulls either.
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Noticed my IRT did not properly update after installing 10.6.5 this morning - back to 10.6.4! Doesn't change much if any of what I said.
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Looking at yesterday for clues, it's important to recognise that broadly speaking we're still in an uptrend, whatever happens today. That doesn't mean "go long". Far from it. But it does mean that the market could still make higher highs than we've already seen yesterday RTH if we drop lower. Anyway, so first looking at what happened yesterday. We checked, drove up, didn't follow through, failed at support and trended lower for pretty much the remainder of the day, finally moving a relatively decent 4.75pts up from the prior balance high support:- Does that constitute rejection? I don't believe so. But it could test higher first before turning south again or it could want to sell right off the bat. That'll be a clue either way as to the conviction of any move lower. What I'm certainly going to be looking for as a test of strength, is the level of support at 1400.00/1399.50 (balance vpoc). Also, looking at the last move lower of the proportions we saw yesterday, we have to look back to 8/2. This actually was just prior to a further move up. However, it should be noted that it was in different circumstances. Yesterday we saw a test to make new recent highs and a failure to follow through, followed by strong selling pressure as opposed to 8/2 which saw a gap lower and attempt to close followed by selling and what turned out to be a failed test lower to 1350 area. Anyway, we'll have to see. :missy:
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Lots of members write lots of stuff- good and bad. We're not here to censor as such, but to make sure that the discussions remain friendly and of course people don't try to mislead then rip other members off. I think that in general, when someone does make claims and refuses to back them up, most right-minded people can see that the sensible thing is to not dive head first into it. My advice to people who genuinely have knowledge and wish to help others with this knowledge, is to post it. Some will quickly work things out for themselves, some will need more help. But either way, by showing people what you are talking about you will gain respect and trust from other members. People aren't dumb (mostly )
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I mentioned somewhere in the thread that I use greenshot as a nice free capture/editor tool as an alternative to snagit. Just makes it a little quicker and easier to post images imho. There are a few things which could be better like there's no curve tool but there is freehand for example. But they are working on it all the time and they have a suggestions forum.
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Everything and nothing can work in technical analysis with or without the right context. In this case, I'd be asking who exactly is doing the buying. Is it guys who are going to hold come hell or high water or is it the few who aren't on holiday, happy to keep buying until there's a break lower? Of course, the trouble is that when markets are grinding higher like this there are always traders and analysts who are calling the top. That's why there's fuel for further moves up until every seller has capitulated and the reversal begins. Remember that a failed breakout (i.e. a breakout then reversal back) can be powerful in the opposite direction. Given that this article was posted a week or so late (cough), we have a bit more to go on today. The market has indeed broken a little higher followed by a tight sideways range and further break higher with the reversal coming straight from that break higher. Whether or not this is a capitulation of sellers followed by a reversal remains to be seen. But we have Fed minutes today and the market is increasingly wary of QE3 not happening right now (along with unresolved issues in Europe). It looks like the sell-off was long liquidation to begin with at least and I'd be watching closely for signs of support or lack thereof, at the 1400 area. Slap bang in the middle of your rising triangle. It's also important to note that the RTH low was 1 tick short of the balance high at 1407.75 (8/7-8/15). But as always, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN :missy:
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Yeah, I don't think it's especially realistic for most to trade whilst travelling and still have fun. My view is that if I'm away, I want to enjoy my time as much as possible and recharge so that I can be at my most effective when I am meant to be trading.
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Will find out whether it would be easy to implement a new one.
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Okay. So you are using non-back adjusted data then. i.e. you aren't taking into account the roll premium between the different contract expiries.
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When though? Edit: sry I was asking you when you have 19.75 as the yearly high.
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When was that ?
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Lol. Looks like there's a few traders wanting to get their business done early.
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So yesterday we really pushed convincingly out of the recent range. As I put it in the last post, if we were to reverse back into the range and hold it, there could be some decent downside to come. Above, I am looking at 1422.50 as the main target to test as this was a major past volume development (back adjusted of course). Overnight has been stale to say the least with currently just 4.25pts of range and under 200k volume. If Friday is the new Monday then we could see that today. Summer trading but out of balance. Hmm. One/two move day or just float up? We'll just have to see. :missy: Michigan and Leading indicators later could move the market but then again maybe not. Here's the chart:-
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Fair enough but, you have a 1:1 R:R. Not that this is a bad thing necessarily if your win rate is high enough, but if you are only getting a few signals per month then I'd question whether you have enough data to verify this. Also and I'd like to point out here that I'm absolutely not advising you to do one thing or another, the market has come out of a pretty decent balance yesterday to even get to your entry. IF it were to fail and reverse back, then is 1403.50 all you might hope to get (I know it was the prior RTH balance high area though)? Lastly, is this a trade you'd normally do overnight? If it is, I'd just ask you to read the title of the thread
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for 8/15:-
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Lots of people talk about "screen time" and its importance in the success of a trader. In essence, it's experience. Number if trades and number of hours. Although I would point out as I always do, that not all trades and not all hours in front of a screen are equal and in fact in many cases can act in quite the opposite way to what was desired. Yesterday was one of those days where experience might just have helped a trader out. The ES had been in a very balanced range for the prior 7 days and even with a bit of an extension upwards on Tuesday, there was a reasonable amount of information to suggest that it was still balanced. So suggesting that a short somewhere at the top of the range was a bad idea surely made no sense right? No. Because there are times when the ES just plods on in one direction only. It "one-timeframes". The experienced trader will fairly quickly spot that given the context of the auction, location and feeling for the way the market is trading, that the conditions are right for such a move and the chances of the market doing it are pretty high. Indeed, after the 1401.75 low was put in just after 10am, the largest rotation down was 1.75pts in a move of 13.75pts up and after the high of 1415.50 was put in, it still only managed to move 3.50pts lower to 12.00. It's worth noting that purely because the ES broke out of the range, it doesn't mean it would automatically grind in one direction without any reasonable pullbacks. Clearly it's potentially of great benefit to identify this particular type of market action early on. The rewards were pretty high and it could prevent you from fading the market thinking that you're getting a great price to sell at. What do you do to gain experience then? You must first have some sort of structure for framing the market and its behaviour. Understanding market movements relative to this structure will help you see things more clearly and develop experience at a greater rate. You must also document not only how you trade according to your plan, but what you see in the market's behaviour. Then if you can devise ways to clearly monitor and test these observations, you are well on your way to gaining experience (in terms of market awareness). Here is the chart from yesterday:-
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Go to www.google.com and type in "What is Scalping".
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goodoboy, to start with you should be charting ES imo. As for the issue of exiting early, well Db is right of course. You must stick to your plan. Discipline in this game is of utmost importance. Even when at the time it might seem like you have a better idea, the point is that you're likely not at your most objective. Anyway, I think that it is important to have an early exit plan. Lots and lots and lots of paper profits are squandered by not having a proper plan to exit if you see certain things happen. Like for example in this case. My view is that the quick (relative to the preceding action) pop above the IB and reversal from the prior RTH session VAH which was inside the IB extension level I personally use to gauge whether I think there's much more in the attempt, would have had me on alert for potential reversal back towards the VPOC at least (bearing in mind that the range was very tight even with the extension to 5.75). The failure to retake the IB quickly would have then made it even more likely in my mind. So how would I have chosen to exit? I know that you're not looking at the IB (as far as I'm aware) and I'm not suggesting you have to. This is just to show thought process. Because I want to see a quick move back above the IBH if I'm long, there's one first option. That is exit as soon as I see signs on a retest from below at the IBH that buyers are not stepping in (or that sellers are). The issue here is that there was no distinct swing as such. Either way it's an option. The other option is to wait for a new swing low. Yet another option is to wait to see if support can be held at either VPOC, VWAP or midpoint. These are all pretty bunched up though and if you are long from 1402.00 without having taken any scales, the sense in holding all that time after having seen good paper p/l and having to wait for it to come back to pretty much your entry, is not great. But you see the multiple options there and that you have to act in some way or another really. Personally, I'd have taken a decent amount off when it couldn't follow through on the move and get back above the IBH. So ~ 04.50. But that is hindsight too as I wasn't trading it.
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If we looked to be starting to break out of the current range, you would try to short the highs or buy at the lows?