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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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I guess there is an argument for 22 however, if this is the site Tams got it from then it is 16. Although looking at this puzzle from the same site, there does seem to be a little ambiguity. I'm sticking with 16 though as I reckon the rounded ends of the matchstick heads make the small squares invalid.
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I suspect that there was a trick - that 96% get it wrong. Just that statement makes you look too hard for a solution when the obvious one is staring you in the face (I hope. lol). Besides, there's no indication of who or what made up this group where 96% failed to get the correct answer.
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Interestingly, in spite of a positive development from the Greece debt talks overnight, the high so far only managed to take out Friday's high by 1 tick. This suggests we're not ready to move higher just yet. This could mean we test lower today then move higher. It could also mean we could struggle for a few days, weeks or until the fiscal cliff is resolved. Who knows. The immediate trend is still up. In other news, the BOE successor to Merv King has been announced as the current incumbent of the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney. It seems like we're going foreign with not just the football team coaches these days! I'm sure he'll do well though. We've already had durable goods in at 0.0% exp -0.7% prev 9.9% rev 9.2%. 10am sees consumer confidence, house price index and richmond fed. (case-shiller is at 9am too). Here's an updated chart:-
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I'm thinking that there's 16 (unless it's a trick question). 1 x 4x4, 1x 3x3, 5 x 2x2, 9 x 1x1
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I'm not sure that confidence in trading is irrelevant, but it certainly leads to confidence in other areas of your life when you do things well, or get positive results. That's definitely one potential problem that you mentioned - false confidence. The idea that a positive outcome and what you did or didn't do are automatically correlated can lead to potential problems.
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Perhaps down to my 'poor' wording I think you've misinterpreted what I was saying. What I hoped would be clear from the rest of what I had to say is that you need to progressively shift from one way of being to another and to do so it's important to increase your level of confidence over time. More confidence (not over-confidence:)) and sustained performance (or form) can help you to make this shift (not flip - think of it like a sliding scale rather than a digital on/off). Imho you are wrong. Confidence can never be zero. It can be exceedingly low, but then why even look at a "setup" twice even when it is? Maybe it is so low that it takes courage to execute and therefore build up some initial confidence. Again, I'm not suggesting for a minute that you "conjure" up confidence using some psychological trick or something. I'm saying you should nurture and support it.
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Absolutely. But what's the best way? During trading? Win:loss ratio? Journalling during and after the session? Or just having a bunch of other traders bring you back down to earth?
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The market so far today has clearly lacked a spark to get it moving. It is the day before Thanksgiving though. Volume is way down and current range is 5.25 pts. Delta hasn't breached -6000 or +4000. That being said, we are at the top of the balance pretty much and therefore I feel there is probably still the potential for a move at some point today.
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Perhaps zdo you don't understand what I mean by "form"?
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You don't?
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leading indicators 0.2% exp 0.1%
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michigan nov f 82.7 vs exp 84.5
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So today is the last day of the week pre-thanksgiving holiday. To all of those in the US, I wish you all a great holiday. To all of those who aren't in the US, I wish you all a productive couple of days not trading. Yesterday was still controlled by that 78.00 overall I'd say and it put in a good low at 1374.00 after Bernanke remarks about not having the tools to prevent US falling into the fiscal cliff had seen a move lower. I've outlined three nearby balances which could affect the market with the top two more likely imo to be in play today. Remember, when a balance area breaks, it can extend and fall back into the balance or it can break and look for fair prices - with previous balances as useful gauges to watch for. Here's the chart:-
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Before I start I'd just note that I didn't put this in the "Trading Psychology" section for good reason. The issue is psychological but I wanted this to be a rather more practical discussion. The issue is confidence. This is predominately an issue with newer traders and those yet to be consistent however, it can affect us all at any given stage. Building up confidence in your ability to trade the markets and your plan well is crucial to growing as a trader. At some point, you need to flip from the "can I make money state" to "how much money can I make state" (or at least how many ticks, pips or whatever). The most important part of confidence is building your account up by using a consistent strategy or set of strategies. By doing so, over time you are building a platform upon which you can develop as a trader and push on. A confident trader keeps trading even if they take a knock or two along the way. A confident trader is able to accept their losses as part of the game and stick to their defined risk limits. But something else happens. Very much like a sportsperson or a sports team who have gone on a long winning run, a confident trader is able to dig out a "victory" when things don't initially go to plan. A confident trader is more likely to be a determined trader. Part of being able to build confidence and a run as a daytrader is having enough trade opportunities in one or multiple markets to create some momentum. Part of it may be going for a few singles (or base hits for US members ) rather than always looking to hit it out of the ground. But overall it's that will to be in the black at the end of each and every day. What else do you think helps a trader turn an idea and a plan into a run of good results?
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£1.5 Bn Fraud & Last Phone Call with UBS 'Rogue Trader'
TheNegotiator replied to Perrin's topic in General Trading
I think that this raises more questions than anything else about the transparency of the industry and the kinds of trading allowed to go on. -
It is important to note that currently the overnight high is just 1 tick above yesterday's RTH high (although it's also 3 ticks below yesterday's ETH high). So there's not much of a push higher yet.
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Interesting point from yesterday was that although we gapped up 11.5 points on open and moved higher pretty much all day, it wasn't that convincing either. Volume was getting on for 20% lower than recent volume (using basic measures). The range was even lower comparatively speaking although there was the gap up. Volume was also largely distributed around prior volume at 1378.00 (yesterday's vpoc was 77.75), suggesting some acceptance there. So my question is whether or not we will build around this area again today or will move to test higher (or lower). Moody's have downgraded the French, Spain had a decent result with bond auctions and the Greeks apparently feel they'll get something positive later on to get the next tranche of aid. Housing Starts (+3.6% exp -3.7%) and Building Permits (-2.7% exp -2.9%) came in better than expected. Lacker is about to start speaking on monetary policy, EU finance ministers will be talking about Greece the Big Ben is speaking in NYC at 12:15 EST. Here's a chart:-
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Yeah not too bad JD. Definitely felt like the grinder was on today though.
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Ease ?
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It seems this rally into open is still to do with the comments last Friday about the Obama/Boehner talks on the fiscal cliff. Indeed we closed on Friday at the high. Now retracing the pre-fomc minutes part of Wednesday. Middle east is still a worry with the Israelis seemingly intent on eradicating any threat to themselves although no ground invasion has happened yet and they claim they prefer diplomatic solutions. We'll see. Existing Homes Sales due out at 10am (exp -0.1% prev -1.7%).
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Quick chart:-
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CME Equity Index products on new hours now:- New CME Equities Hours and Limits
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Final reminder we are now on new trading hours schedule as above. Regular Trading Hours (RTH) session remains the same 9:30am-4:15pm EST. Electronic Trading Hours (ETH) session should be changed to 6pm-5:15pm EST Sun-Fri (or 5pm-4:15pm CST Sun-Fri).
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This push higher was on the comment from Boehner that talks with Obama were constructive. Incidentally the occurrence of neutral days (yes, I do mean neutral this time ) since 3/14/7 is ~29.1% or 425 days.
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When I say "neutral" I really meant "normal". i.e. only 2.4% of days (35) have been normal when the high and low are the same as the IB high and low.