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TheNegotiator

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator

  1. TheNegotiator
    Apparently there was some chat about ECB getting some more power or something too. I don't know whether we moved off that or not. As this guy points out, FOMC meeting is quite close so I don't know whether even if they are going to ease, whether it'd be indicated today. Remember there's a jobs report the preceding Friday to the meeting and if that were a good one, they may back off. Who know and does it really matter anyway lol.
  2. TheNegotiator
    What'll be with BB today then guys? Big move, threaten to move then back, or nada?
  3. TheNegotiator
    The mistake isn't fading the market in itself. It's the belief that it can't go any higher, the failure to work out whether or not the market is really trending or not, the failure to assess the continuing nature of any trend, the failure to identify strong levels of resistance, the failure to interpret trading activity at said levels and finally, the failure to accept risk.
  4. TheNegotiator
    I think this is a big thing that new traders fail to address. It's not a big draw for them though. Lots of fancy lines seesawing back and forth on a chart however... It's true that you must have some sort of defined method to trade. I would suggest a framework for describing market state is the best place to start though. But after that it's imperative to understand and employ MM. True. This is why it's important to identify risk based on the market and then work out position R:R, size or even if it's worthwhile taking the trade at all. The market doesn't care about your account so you must!
  5. TheNegotiator
    Yes. Clearly a journal of some sort is a useful thing. However, for many people (at one time myself included- other than a trade log) I think it's difficult to motivate themselves to do so without a clear picture of what one should look like. It's not just about a trade log. It's about your interaction with the market and the degree of success you then achieve. Another reason someone might not journal is due to a lack of success. I know this seems counter intuitive, but I've seen it in traders before. They know they've done badly or are doing badly so don't want to face the pain of reliving poor performance. My advice to those who are in that place is that it really isn't that bad and more than anything it's confidence building so long as you are objective assessing things after trading and in a non-emotional state.
  6. TheNegotiator
    'Volatility' is good for day traders. It means more opportunities and time to get into the flow of the market. What imho day traders often find difficult is sudden changes in volatility. When that happens they might push too hard, not hard enough, hold a trade for too long or too short a time or get caught out fading the market. Movement = good for day traders Sudden shifts in volatility = can be good (if sudden increase and a trader is prepared), often bad.
  7. TheNegotiator
    Big Ben @Jackson Hole 10am EST. Useful (ish) prep :-What To Expect From Bernanke At Jackson Hole | ZeroHedge
  8. TheNegotiator
    Thanks for sharing ln! I think you've got a good base to move forward and are benefiting from your experiences in the best way. The Friday afternoon thing you mentioned happens sometimes. What it comes down to is being adaptable and able to quickly shift gears when a market changes. It's also maybe a little about being confident in your plan and accepting the risk. If you aren't prepared to lose a few ticks to see if you're right, then you shouldn't be taking a trade really.
  9. TheNegotiator
    Ah, but are the mistakes you make as a trader always that obvious?
  10. TheNegotiator
    Fair enough. Interestingly, the 2xIB comes in at 1403.00 - 1 tick below yesterday's low. Just a thought if the IBL holds.
  11. TheNegotiator
    1- I don't believe you have explained it before. 2- I don't believe that was an adequate explanation. 3- Posting a few arrows on a historical chart after it has moved does not show that you nailed the market. I'm not saying that you didn't btw. Thanks for your input steve.
  12. TheNegotiator
    Tiny 3.75 pt initial balance today confined by yesterday's value area.
  13. TheNegotiator
    I agree with those areas and possible trades although wasn't totally convinced on the 8.50 long idea from yesterday's poc. 8.00 was also the 24hr mid and an activity ledge into close, so it could be argued it was a decent enough punt. "shows our algo signal" is interesting though. To me it looks like an RTH test of yesterday's VPOC with no follow through. Why is it an algo pattern exactly? Please explain this in a detailed way otherwise it's just not useful. A rule for this thread is that people should explain statements and ideas so it can benefit others. Thanks.
  14. TheNegotiator
    Anyway, like the title of the thread suggests if you want to comment on or ask questions talk about a different aspect of MM then please do so! :helloooo:
  15. TheNegotiator
    Just to clarify, the difference in number of points per contract over the 200 days is 47 or 12% less. But when you look at the final balance, the difference is substantial. It's $131,650 lower or 39% less because of how many contracts were traded. Now this is in a world much closer to 'perfect' than many would recognize, so you can only imagine how it's a problem for the average trader if it's not looked after properly.
  16. TheNegotiator
    Next, I've just taken a random set assuming a goal of taking 2 points per day on a $10k account. The number of contracts traded is the account balance/$5000 i.e. 2 to begin with. The max daily loss is set to 4 points per contract - so initially on 2 lots a max loss should equal $400. Just for ease, I am talking about ES where 1 point = $50/contract, but it applies to anything. I've randomized the data to get roughly +2 points/contract average per day. On the second column, I've turned 1 -4pt max loss per day to between 6 and 12 points once a month (used 200 traded days for a year and 17 days/month ish) to simulate a loss of control by a trader. I've not accounted for whether a big loss would negatively affect trading on subsequent days or not, neither have I addressed whether the max loss is appropriate- clearly if your max loss is 4 pts but you frequently go over and finish up for the day, you daily loss limit could need to be tweaked. Anyway, this is how an account is affected when trying to build it up over the course of a year:-
  17. TheNegotiator
    So I'll get started with some really, really simple basics just to make it clear that MM and sticking to your risk limits and max daily losses are very important. First simple chart. Following on a little from James' chart, here is effectively a risk of ruin chart:- It's assuming a 10k account and no margin for simplicity. The point is that very quickly as a greater original % of the account is risked per day (or per trade), the number of losing days in a row that the account can withstand drops dramatically. This doesn't take into account commissions even, so you can see how important having an appropriately funded account is.
  18. TheNegotiator
    I had a quick look at what was on TL already and there seems to be a reasonable amount. If anyone has a particularly useful thread to add, please post it. Anyway, I came up with this one from James, the founder of TL. Pretty useful post really. 12 replies. 12 flippin' replies. I'm not surprised but it does seem somewhat of a shame. But there you go.
  19. TheNegotiator
    I thought about calling this thread "Secret Trading System Revealed!" or "Strategy Guaranteed to Make X Return" because I know that for many, the idea of money management in trading holds little interest. I decided against it though because "you can take a horse to water, but you can't make it drink" so to speak. More than anything I hope to get a proper discussion going to highlight the importance of paying proper attention to the figures and trading accordingly and discuss ideas. I hope this thread can be a place where more experienced traders can share their ideas and newer traders can learn and ask questions.
  20. TheNegotiator
    BB is on Friday apparently:- FRB: What's Next
  21. TheNegotiator
    I didn't trade yesterday myself, but it looks like it was okay to trade even if the range was pretty tight. The overnight profile is fairly well balanced (chart is 24hrs so 2nd profile on left chart is o/n) but given yesterday had a poor low and rejected from the balance vpoc (now moved to 13.25 including yesterday rth session), I suspect we might test lower again. The overnight low currently is 1404.25 which is a low volume price on the long-term profile and that could be a decent target to test rth. Still in my thinking is that 1392.00 could need to be tested once more before deciding direction. Overall I'm thinking in the absence of groundbreaking news and with JH just around the corner(31st I think? correct me if I'm wrong please!) are we ready to really break out just yet? We'll see I guess. Consumer confidence and richmond fed man ind are due for release at 10am.
  22. TheNegotiator
    .
  23. TheNegotiator
    Putting the action into context, we currently have a 3.75pt IB in ES. Of course there's still time for that to extend a bit but the likelihood is that it won't do so massively. The open was an auction type. The levels above are 1400.00 putting the IB at 4.50pts then possibly 01.00 but more likely 02.50/03.00 putting the IB at 7/7.5pts. Will that happen? Maybe, but we're hardly moving right now so things would need to pick up. Of course it could fall back down with the next lower target being 93.50 and 92.00. That would be an IB of 5.75 or 7.25.
  24. TheNegotiator
    There's still the 1400 area. Also around there is the prior balance vpoc 1399.50 and overnight vpoc 99.25. Not saying it will turn from there, but what ever it does there interests me.
  25. TheNegotiator
    Yeah I was looking at that as a possibility. It's not only the century figure, but also yesterday's close and VPOC. We'll have to see.
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