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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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True. On the other hand, if it were appropriately demonstrated to them why the platform was created this way and were given the knowledge of how to use it, there would be a good few who at the very least would give it a good go. The question is whether more proportionally would be successful or not. This isn't to say it would make lots of successful traders. A prospective retail trader with no knowledge of trading has no criteria to base their suitability and potential upon other than their ego (and greed). Back to the last point I made. A new retail trader decides they will be a good trader themself. So their would be plenty who still fail. Even if a firm experienced in picking good traders were to 'authorise' all new accounts retail or otherwise, there would surely be those who would fail, those who would be okay but make plenty of losing trades and those who would be great, but still take losing trades. The point is that simple ideas which work reasonably well are rarely presented to new traders and when they are they often miss out a critical aspect which people have an aversion of - hard work.
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When someone claims the "markets are random" I'll tell you what springs to mind. "The Earth is flat" knowledge which some very well educated people once believed in. It looked flat to them though and to all intents and purposes it was (just got to watch out for that pesky edge at the 'end of the earth'!). There is nothing random about the markets, only action of which the causes are not apparent to us. How can they be? How can we know what all other traders are doing or about to do and the positions they hold and so on? How can we know what the latest jobs data will be this Friday and what, given traders' positions/objectives, the market reaction to that data will be? We can't. Does that make it random though? No. What we can do is assess the chances of the market reacting technically in some way and then manage positions by way of what we see is happening. We must account for a shortfall of knowledge by managing positions - i.e. information risk and assessing the manner of the current auction. To me if the markets really were a "random walk" then their would be no sense in technical analysis whatsoever. Levels would not exist and momentum would have no bearing on the next print. There would be no point to historical charts at all and picking an entry point would have zero effect on the outcome of a trade. So I'd say, next time someone suggests the markets are random, ask them if they use a chart. (btw I didn't listen to the interview)
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A new trader opens up their exciting new trading platform which their new broker has so 'kindly' provided for 'free' and furnished with 'useful' indicators and the trader inevitably looks through various indicators and visually assesses their efficacy. The trader's mind is drawn to those clear cases where the market generates a 'signal' based off some 'indicator' and they think they've nailed it. However, the market does not concur when they attempt to apply it to trading. "I must have missed something" the trader thinks, without even a second thought to the relevance of the indicator at all. After all, it was included in the charting platform so it has to be good, right? "So lemme see what happens if I cross indi A with indi B" is the next thought. "Eureka! Jackpot! I'm gonna be rich!" says the trader possibly even out load, actually counting the soon-to-be-in-their-account money before it's been made. And it continues. Time spent acts as shackles too as the trader can't face the possibility that they've wasted their time and just move on. Then when they do finally move on, they're in danger of repeating the same mistake again. :doh: Anyway, my point is that I disagree with the idea that traders want to use lots of different indicators to 'complicate' things because they think complicated = better, personality, lack of understanding, need to be right or anything else in particular. It's because a new trader sees something and thinks it works and gets stuck in a mindset. Lots of problems imho originate from far, far simpler beginnings than most would have you believe. Overall I probably would say the brokers play a big part in this. Step up I'd say to any responsible broker reading this and take action. Provide simple basic education on auctions and a simple, basic, fast and reliable charting/trading platform with no indicators as such. Just some simple drawing tools and ability to read volume well in real time. It would be an interesting read to see the difference in new trader failure rate between this broker and usual brokers. Anyway.
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No problem. Here's another showing the profile so far today:-
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Anyone think we're going to get an ISM print above 50? I'm not sure the market will like it if we do as it could be seen to diminish chances of stimulus. Just have to see I guess.
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Notice btw how both balance profiles (red and hollowgram) now have a vpoc of 1409.00. Consensus on value is homing in on that price.
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So we're still in the same balance as we were before Friday. Looking ahead, we have ECB rate decision on Thursday and Friday is non-farm payrolls. Next week is probably most important though. Wednesday 12th Germans rule on ESM's constitutional legality and Thursday 13th is FOMC rate decision where we will be looking for QE clues once again. Anyway, here's the chart just in case there's some of you not on holiday
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Fun and Games for when Trading is Dull!!
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Discussion
Not that it's been quiet today but I spotted this:- Atari Arcade Looks like it could be fun and a chance to see html5 in action! -
I thought I'd do a chart to illustrate the action of the market since 8/3- the start of the current balance profile. In fairness, before the development wasn't that well defined, but it was there. Anyway, take a look:- The far right hand profile only includes data up to and including 8/2.
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I am not an MP expert. However, shape is important in MP. Clearly we are not trending as such and yet the MP (block profile (yes I've removed the letters)) shows a not very well defined curve. Could we turn to a trending market? Sure. Is it also possible we are looking at a market with no clear view of value right now? Probably. I think it's more than possible (but by no means a certainty - nothing is in trading or in life) that we need to 'resolve' value before moving. back below 1392 or above 1416.75. That could happen today or the next session, although news seems to throw a spanner in the works pretty frequently at the moment and given that Monday is not a European holiday... Here's the MP:-
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Maybe, maybe not. In fairness, considering the fairly quick move up and on low volume, there's a pretty reasonable chance that it was responsive selling. To me, if we finished inside the current range or extended then retraced before the close, it'd effectively be a neutral day. i.e. OTF traded both sides of the range. Anyway, I have no bias right now other than that we're in the middle (ish) of a pretty poorly defined volume development (on the long-term chart). So let's see what does happen :missy:
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Maybe. Clearly there was a bit of a battle ~ yesterday's high there and buyers did step in. IF it made new highs, I have 14.50 then 16.75 as targets. It'd be a statement of intent if they managed to close it above there into the holiday weekend.
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Your interpretation of what might happen after BB was pretty much what I had. Two points though. 1 - knee jerk reactions can slice through you pretty badly if you're not careful and stop you out before the market realises it's 'wrong'. 2 - given that "informed players" had been expecting no QE right now and that the market was advertising lower prices, there'd likely be some traders licking their lips ready to load up. So why did you buy at 98.25 with a 2 pt target??? It worked, but maximising your profits is just as important as minimising your losses.
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I take it that's a no on the order flow confirmation then! I'd say that although it could build up still and break higher later, given that we hardly extended on the IB, through the mid could see a bigger move lower with poss support at 3-4. Pfft, gone already :doh:
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I wasn't saying that the idea was necessarily too bad, although my thought was for a gap close considering the move up that we'd just had - hence why I felt the second trade was better. The fact was that the market was diving on Bernanke and it showed little to no interest at your entry. This is a 250 volume chart of the action before:- Now had you bought it after it checked the 1401's, that might have been a different matter. I don't know whether you did or not. If you didn't, imo standing in front of the ES with no regard for pa and when it's moving quickly is not a great idea (unless you're really very confident in the level) Edit: sorry I forgot to mention that when I talk about gaps it's normally RTH close to RTH open. I do look at range gaps too though.
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Lol. Fruit machine = Slot machine
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Thought I'd post a little update to the chart. I forgot to mention I spotted a Db special earlier so I highlighted it on the chart:-
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Doesn't matter. Next trade What's everyone's view on if we get back into yesterday's range again?
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I think the second trade looked much better imo, although given the test into and possible reversal back out of yesterday's range, the potential for a bigger profit was there. Either way profit is profit. Well done.
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This is what we did (excluding last move which just touched yesterday's vpoc):- We basically ping-ponged between those high vol areas which are also reflected on rob's charts from earlier. The last retrace on the chart corresponded to the rth mid, rth low vol, overnight vpoc. Was a good short in addition to the one at 1409.25.
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Fruit machine trading.
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Maybe that would be good, maybe it wouldn't. Although it's near the top of yesterday's RTH range, I would point out that we'd have moved well over 50% of the ETH range back. Considering the upwards pressure I would think something would have had to have changed and that would make me cautious of buying there. We'll see though, ach.
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Expanding the balance profile 8/3-8/30 shows a balance around a long-term volume development (highlighted on right-hand orange profile) with 'spikes' tested on either side. Also shows the VPOC to be 1400.00 exactly.
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and a big one just in case
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Here you go:-