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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Agree in part. I would question the logic in playing for a breakout before it actually occurs, near the extreme. My view is that the range so far is tiny. There may well be one or two moves of decent size later though. Currently the high isn't especially convincing although it doesn't automatically qualify it for an immediate breakout either. What we might do is move down to test for buyers before taking a 'run up' at the the current high again to see if we can break higher. Just one idea.
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Let me ask a few questions. What has the RTH range been so far today in the first ~40mins of trading? What does that indicate regarding OTF (big players)? What are the possible reasons for this? How would this impact the way you trade for the rest of the session?
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Why ?
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I am wondering the reasons for your entry/stop price combination here.
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Pretty important information today that the Germans ratified the ESM and that was potentially a big hurdle for the market. Remember though, there's also the FOMC tomorrow at which people will want to see the Fed to commit to more QE. I don't want or need to predict what we might do from here. All I will point out is that one - extremes are usually made on a culmination of good or bad news (i.e. good at tops, bad at bottoms) two - if the Fed dilute the $ more, it won't matter what the technicals are saying as price will need to account for lower value in $. Anyway, not that we need to look too far down the line you know
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That sounds pretty interesting Qiman! Maybe you should start a thread with pictures of where you're trading from each day or week
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Morning everyone! How's trading yesterday then? Wasn't trading myself. Here's a chart for today anyway
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Any trading over wifi or any wireless data connection - phone, tablet, laptop or otherwise - is not a great idea imho. Too unreliable. Maybe one day though.
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Let's see what happens. The one thing everyone should bear in mind is the old saying "don't fade the fed". Of course that is when they actually do something rather than just the market anticipating that they'll do something!
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Should do. Read Markets in Profile and Mind Over Markets. Above all you should ask me or others in the e-mini thread if there's something you don't get. More than happy to help. Working out what it might do in the session is a synthesis of technical and macro information plus experience of being smashed for six when trying to do certain things. If you have a framework to work with, recognising market behaviour is quicker imho. Market profile and auction principles outlined in the two books will give you a solid foundation for that framework. Then, you have to apply your various strategies within this framework. -
I'm all about the futures and always have been!
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Exactly. So if you really want to get involved and believe me you absolutely do not have to (ES does not exhibit this kind of trading activity that often), then you try to get in on the best pullback you can where you can place risk the other side of what you judge would provide some sort of decent support should a deeper retracement take place. Ideally, the sooner you spot these days the better and then (at least I feel this way sometimes) it is a controlled leap of faith! To me, the use of range expansion is slightly misleading in this sense. Range by definition is high to low. However, trading ranges are usually seen as brackets - i.e. a balance in which two-way auctions happen. Specifically in this case, saying it's a range expansion re:the balance range I have outlined is not yet certain and potentially quite inaccurate. To me, a range expansion is just that. It pushes a little further then reverts to it's originally balance activity. The whole point of my post was that I believe that considering everything and at least for yesterday, the likelihood is that we are not balanced anymore.
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Nice one FTX. Good way to finish the trading week!
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Yup. Long-term profile snapshot:-
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Definitely can be difficult with the potential for so many to act in the market in a short space of time. I don't know what we'll get today. It could be a standard summer friday with not much to do past about 10am and that would tie in with a rest day after the big move yesterday. However, if that jobs data is believed to be enough to force the fed's hand and commit to QE3, it really doesn't matter which day of the week it is.
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The most traded price post nfp has been 34.00 which is also pretty much the midpoint of the overnight session (34.25).
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You got a 1 tick fail on the overnight high, so might be good.
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So NFP came out at 96k exp 130k with a downward revision to 141k from 163k for last month's number. Unemployment fell however to 8.1% from the expected 8.3%. Okay so in asking what might happen after these releases, I'm looking at the fact that ES has not plummeted but the dollar index has. I think that's the tell, but let's see what does happen.
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I wrote here about the context yesterday and why there shouldn't have been any reason to try to sell the market. I hope everyone realised this and did very well too. Into the next event. NFP in 15mins. Will it be a terrible figure? Not sure. If it is will the market reverse yesterday's work? Well I'm not certain of that either. If it did it could be extremely negative technically. But thinking about it logically, if it were a terrible release the markets would drop but then QE3 predicting bargain hunters might very well look to stock up. Let's see what it does do then assess it.
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As I hope more and more people will be realising the importance of context, I hope it was fairly obvious to most what was going on yesterday in the ES and I am in fact wasting my time in pointing it out. Given all the context heading into the ECB, fading the market should have been out of the question for traders. The ES had balanced and balanced and balanced some more with the VPOC (volume point of control - price at which the most contracts have been traded) moving closer to the middle as the balance progressed. The fact that breakouts often originate from the middle of balances shouldn't have gone unnoticed. Then after the ECB (even if you had no idea of what was said or the implications) on RTH open with the market gapping up (range and session) and immediately driving away from the gap not into it, it was very, very clear that it was a market to not fade and go with. See chart below.
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I'm not sure I would as such although the action over the last few days is clearly 'homing in' so to speak. See what Db thinks
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can you post a chart of what you're looking at please?
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Virtually identical opening location to yesterday for anyone who's interested...
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second chart is a 60min to show movement more clearly.
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Okay so this is the chart today. Not much changed but here it is:-