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TheNegotiator

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator

  1. TheNegotiator
    I know some Dalton. However, the idea is not purely the reserve of Dalton. It is certainly true that more and more, moves will happen overnight and often profits will be taken during the main pit session. However, if you look what happens when those moves happen and the positions are compromised, it's still pretty clear that they are weaker players. Advantage is taken overnight when the likely move for the day session is fairly predictable. Imo.
  2. TheNegotiator
    Being aware of risk is knowing it is there and not doing anything about it. Accepting risk hopefully leads to trying to quantify and legislate for it as part of a cohesive trading plan.
  3. TheNegotiator
    There are similarities to poker or even online computer games. Obviously money, but also the need to be right. The instant success that you can get from trading is pretty alluring.
  4. TheNegotiator
    I think the overall idea is that overnight action is important but is created by weaker(in the sense that they won't hold as long) players. Also, it depends which markets you are looking at. For example, if you are trading equity index futures, is the price going to be an accurate reflection when the underlying stocks are not actually trading?
  5. TheNegotiator
    We will be hosting a webinar with some great ideas for intraday trading on Tuesday 15th March 2011. "As an active trader, the trading tools you select will have a dramatic impact on your success. Whether you trade futures, forex, or equities, you can significantly enhance your trading efficiency by utilizing proven techniques used by successful day traders. Attend this event to learn how to incorporate these techniques for an immediate benefit to your trading!" More details to follow...
  6. TheNegotiator
    Haha! Yeah I am with you. I think it is interesting though to look at other traders' take on ideas that align with your own. It can be enlightening...
  7. TheNegotiator
    I can imagine! talking of counting bars etc, do you look at stuff like demark?
  8. TheNegotiator
    Okay guys. This is my take. You are ALL important and in fact ESSENTIAL to the community. Kiwi is generous and knowledgeable having been at TL for a good while now, but also bob is important too. After all, Kiwi was in Bob's position at one point!
  9. TheNegotiator
    This is definitely what I was getting at. I guess if you do the analysis on a long enough scale and look at the queues proportionally to one another, the specific orders that may have been 'missed' or even 'skipped' will become less and less relevant. So if you are a highly skilled analysis technician, perhaps it may still be possible to do this kind of thing with retail tools available today. What do you think?
  10. TheNegotiator
    I thought of another one. When do you say enough is enough? You have given trading your best shot and it just didn't work? People even down to the individual trade, enter into things thinking only about the positive what ifs.
  11. TheNegotiator
    AuctionMarket_Trader, in what way do you go about analysing bids and offers? Do you think it is easy to do for a retail trader without institutional grade software, hardware, connections and data feeds?
  12. TheNegotiator
    I think a really important factor to keep in mind, is all of this means nothing without thorough planning for the day/week/month regarding what markets are doing, effective and detailed research on the market you are trading and a trading strategy which is consistently likely to be profitable. Look at traders at banks and hedge funds. How many hours do they put in? I'm not saying all of them 'make it' as there are certainly other aspects. But if you are not making money, don't assume it's because of trading psychology. Do yourself a favour, put the hours in, do the work and give yourself a chance of being confident. If you do this and still have issues, maybe then seek some help with the psychological side of trading. Just my opinion.
  13. TheNegotiator
    Hmm. The idea of keeping things simple I think is interesting. Imo and I know this may sound like semantics to some, it is more important to not over-complicate things. The cookie and pizza auction have limited variables and like in the pit, you can see when a new player comes in to get involved. The movement of complex electronically traded derivatives is much harder to judge. I think that distilling you trading methodology is a good idea and in system builder's terminology, will make it more robust. However, failing to take into account important market drivers, can and usually will cost you money.
  14. TheNegotiator
    Does anyone know CUDA or CUDA.net? Is anyone integrating it in any way? Are there any good alternatives to it? I think there is ATI Stream maybe.
  15. TheNegotiator
    Possibly the greatest trading book of all time. A true traders gem. Out of all the books I let people borrow, this book will never leave my library. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is a disguised story of Jesse Livermore, the greatest stock trader of all time. Although initially published in 1923, the trading wisdom and advice is still very valuable in todays markets. The markets may change but the people will never change. Jesse Livermore was one of the earliest tape readers of our times. As a boy, Livermore spent countless hours working for the local bucket shops staring at stock prices. He was able to build his trading edge after hours of observation of the ticker board. If you have yet to read this book do yourself a favor and pick it up. There is plenty of market insight even for a veteran trader. The book is a real financial page turner and you will explore the history of wallstreet as well as the old school market manipulation tactics. You will learn about the tape and how Jesse Livermore was able to identify support and resistance through the ticker board. This should be a mandatory reading for all traders. "After twenty years and many re-reads, Reminiscences is still one of my all-time favorites." -Kenneth L. Fisher, Forbes
  16. TheNegotiator
    "There are men who will take no initiative on their own responsibility, who will undertake nothing without consulting others as to the feasibility of the schemes and plans they have in view. When a man puts more confidence in another than in himself he is bound to lose all will power and become a mere dependent, awaiting orders as to the course of action. It is impossible for such a man to get along in the world and make a success of his own life. When opportunity comes along he is afraid to seize it without asking his neighbor's opinion." Certainly one of my favorite teachers, any book written by Wyckoff is a must read. His teachings are based on a simple law of supply and demand. Every piece of market knowledge you absorb from him is pure market information. Originally published in 1924, his trading wisdom still holds till this day. There are a couple reasons why I love reading about stock market operators back in the early 1900's, but one biggest reason is that they are the original market philosophers. Every modern day teachings contains influences from all our past teachers. This book is not about trading strategies or setups. What Wyckoff does is explain good common sense that can help save the amateur trader/investor thousands of dollars. His teachings are truely an inspiration for many traders today.
  17. TheNegotiator
    For $12.95 you will not find a better book than this. One of my favorite reads of all-time. Nicolas Darvas is well known for his box theory. The box theory focuses on price action alone using support and resistance points. Price moves in brackets. As price moves from one bracket to another, the boxes pile on top of each other causing a trend. This theory made a dramatic change in my trading when I changed my style to using market profile, price action, and tape. Now, I have applied the box theory into tape reading to spot short term reversal points. For anyone interested in learning more about this theory, I recommend you to pick this up. For those interested in a good wall street read, this book is for you.
  18. TheNegotiator
    Success trading isn't contingent on the following, but it certainly helps not just from an a/c balance perspective. Many times during my time as a trader so far, I have heard of traders who go on to be successful after plodding along doing not well but not badly. They have one trade that 'makes' them. One super sonic trade that just gives them the confidence and which is backed up by a/c balance. I am certainly not an advocate of trying to go for these trades all the time, but if you just have an opportunity and it pays big, you're set. Same thing with football at the other end of thee scale. The more I look at it, the fewer top teams that there are about which are actually head and shoulders above the rest in terms of ability.
  19. TheNegotiator
    Definitely. It's so easy once you start thinking negatively to fail and get stuck in a rut. I don't know if you like sport, but I watch (english) football and it is very clear that some teams that do badly are suffering mentally most of the time, more than they lack ability. Conversely, this year a newly promoted and not especially highly regarded team - Blackpool, have far exceed what was thought was possible from them.
  20. TheNegotiator
    I feel this could be leading to an enlightening way of viewing our interaction with the markets. For example, I don't really like the way we deal with eating meat. I'm not a vege(not that there is anything wrong with that- just i'm not), but I think the way it come to us and such an easy come easy go attitude towards other life is perhaps not quite right. Maybe the way then to view the market when you win is to be thankful and let it register that you took someone else's money and when you lose to praise your opponents? Just a musing.
  21. TheNegotiator
    I know this isn't directly relating to what you said, but it is a good illustration of my point. I have heard it said that for example the e-mini s&p is designed to stop people out. Every move is just happening to force one set of traders out. Well I think this is a cynical way of looking at things. The market is very big and liquidity is high. All kinds of traders doing all kinds of things. Momentum plays a big part in how this market trades because of this. So when it overshoots, weak players(and others) are relenting and a climax peak in trading happens. This tends to then bring in traders from the opposite side who are waiting to enter at a better price. Once this is reached they quickly take a position which moves the market back. Seeing this, a trader with a profitable position may want to take some profits and lighten up. So my point is market behaviour can always be viewed negatively if you are in a certain frame of mind. However, most of the time there is a mechanical explanation which is a function of cumulative market participation.
  22. TheNegotiator
    I personally couldn't square myself with the whole trying to beat others rather than letting the market judge your technique and decision making mindset. I firstly don't like the idea of personally putting someone out of business and quite simply I would never be in that position anyway. Secondly I find it easier to view the market as an average view of many different traders. If I thought one specific trader was beating me, I don't think I'd like it. Maybe I misinterpreted what you were getting atthough MM.
  23. TheNegotiator
    Hi chartwaves! Welcome to TL! I'm sure your experience will be invaluble to other members and who knows, maybe you'll get some more insight to compliment the knowledge you have already! See you in forums!
  24. TheNegotiator
    Hi up23, Btw welcome to TL! I have a few comments on your ideas here. 1- I think a trader should strive to enter on only their setups. If there is discretion on this in that there are poorer and better setups, it breeds that cyclic behaviour in a trader. 2- I think that the whole cycle principle is to a great extent created by fundamental human emotions. Our ability to accept loss as part of the probability of trading and see the market run in the direction of the trade we just closed out can potentially have a great affect on our future trades. Being able to square yourself with these scenarios is an important aspect of trading. 3- Lastly, when traders are having a tough time because they are trading poorly, they rarely weight cyclic market behaviour as it should be. All too frequently, you hear people either blaming themselves for being terrible traders when the market has just been trading in a particularly unusual manner or complaining about the awful markets they trade and how 'they' are out to screw them on every trade.
  25. TheNegotiator
    Just a reminder to everyone, TradersLab will be attending the 2011 London Traders Expo. I'll be there personally and would love to meet some of our forum members!
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