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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Trading Account Management Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Risk & Money Management
...and basically, the more you can lay off risk, the more stable your equity curve will be. The more stable your equity curve is, the quicker and safer you can scale your strategy up in terms of your clip size. 3 lot turns to 10 lot turns to 50 lot etc. and so your account ratchets up quite quickly. -
Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
Basically, we can see that compared with the big balance profile from 2007 (in red), since early September we have been trading in the middle of the two volume peaks (1415.50 & 1479.00). Volume has built towards each peak but not quite there. This possibly shows indecision as to where 'value' lies currently. However, it's also important to note that we haven't yet actually tested the 1479.00's. The trend is still up. Buyers did come in when we retested the lower development (in the cyan profile). Although Friday did see selling, it was from a higher starting point. Too long can equal sell-off until buyers re-enter. We could of course get more selling over the next few days as well, but that isn't necessarily how I'm viewing it right now. I am thinking if we stay in the upper dev (hold above 43.75/45.25) we could extend to finally test the 1479.00 level before deciding whether value is to be established higher or not. Of course, anything can happen and a failure to move higher could well see us retest the 1415.50's too. -
Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
Here's the chart I posted in the Day Trading the E-mini Futures thread:- -
Longer term view which I will discuss in bigger picture thread:-
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Just doing some really basic stats on the last 5 Columbus day holidays we can see that there is a trend of lower volume & range although still ES does move. Bearing in mind this is a 5 sample set, if things follow today and it's not outlier (which it could be if there's news or liquidation...) I would think that we could see volume between 550-825k and a range of 6-10 points ROUGHLY.
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Thanks for your posts slick and sdoma. Some great insight there which I'm sure gave you a tidy profit too! Nice to see you around Tom! I agree that possibly we ran out of steam on current information to push any higher and so there's a decent chance to push on later on sometime (no timeframe for that - could be today, tomorrow or months from now). However, it's also possible that there is no more steam (not saying that's my view). A cursory look over the last couple of days gives me the feeling that we are aligning the balance profile upper development high volume nearer to the long-term profile high volume at 1455.50. Last 2 days has filled that bit in somewhat and we would need ~1000 more to trade at 55.50 than 53 for it to switch. The distribution is probably more important but the fact that volume is being traded higher in the distribution shouldn't be missed. So my thinking is today and maybe tomorrow, we could be "controlled" by this area and remain fairly well balanced around it. Of course I could be totally wrong - we could also see liquidation if say 49.25 then 43.75 were taken or we could dump or rally on new information to price (such as news etc.). Anyway, we watch, we wait, we see what happens and we act accordingly
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Unfortunately I'm not going to be able to trade for much of this NFP day () but there you go. Oh well. I thought I'd post a chart though for you guys to take a look at. Should back though sometime this afternoon. Good luck to all!!
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Arrrggghhh! Here are those 52's. Still, you make a call and make the trade. Either way a nice little trade.
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Not saying it should But it's more info to decipher. If there's a decent level there, hold and it could reverse, break and there could be a decent continuation. Of course whether either of those 2 scenarios holds up is also info. Good luck anyway. You've already printed +13 ticks!
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If they love the 52's, there should be no reason why they won't try for 50.50's at least imho.
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Just dropping into the low volume/VWAP/midpoint area now, which is at that important 53 level(ish)...
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Wow, they're loving those 55's
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Wow, it really took its time on that one. Thought there'd be more of an early move if i'm honest.
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So far, cumulative delta has not yet managed surpass +/- 2500k Poor low, poor high. Balance needs to tip.
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NQ looking a little weak relative to ES
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auction out of range on open :- extended slightly now to test yesterday's high
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Okay, so I think the idea is that Draghi is broadly but cautiously upbeat and in typical ECB president fashion, he won't precommit to anything in particular. See what happens, but my expectations are that we will be waiting for NFPs now. Nothing earth-shattering here. (would point out that the Q&A is not actually finished yet though) Edit: sorry, forgot to say it's onto fed minutes before NFPs.
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No comment on Spain? I'm not sure that Mr Draghi quite grasps the concept of a Q&A.
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ECB Q&A starting ...
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That can turn on one comment though as he has only just started (euro future just hit 1.3000 pretty much)
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Euro going bid on Draghi...
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Initial jobless due exp 370k from 359k Also ECB press conference :- ECB: Webcasts: ECB monetary policy decisions
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Key things for me was the good rejection low at 35.50 and the VPOC above the low volume zone (from the cyan balance profile) ~ 1443.50-45.00. Overnight push higher is also useful to note with the high being exactly at the upper development high volume price 1453.00. What does this tell me? It suggests that we want to go higher but aren't ready to quite yet. Not surprising really when you consider that FOMC minutes are due out today and we have Sept NFPs due tomorrow.
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From yesterday:-
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Tested higher again overnight:-