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TheNegotiator

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator

  1. TheNegotiator
    Hmm. My take on cumulative data is rather different josh. I use it as a decision support tool based on where the price is trading and market context - i.e. what mode the market is in. I would like to suggest that if you don't like or get an 'indicator' then just ditch it. It's important that you have a good feel for how you are charting the market. I do think before anyone even starts trading though, a basic understanding of how a market works is most important. Then, use your 'indicator' for a specific task. In the case of cumulative delta, here's a few ways I like to view it. 1-On a smallish tf or even a volume chart, watch the flow of the cumulative delta. A clear block upon block of delta is sometimes evident. This could be your otf if you like. In the same vein, if you witness a large price move up say, are there any sellers present? Pure price won't necessarily show this as traders obviously can and do pull their orders before they are filled. 2-Sometimes, it's also evident that there are 'waves' of buying or selling of similar magnitude with similar breaks in between them. These waves can give you an idea how a bigger player views the market say post a test of an important price area. 3-If the market is balanced short term and is at an important area, what is the delta doing as the market is testing? Say we are pushing up, if the delta is building up, there are two options. Firstly the market could break and probably hard as clearly 'passive' sellers will exit (caveat of this is that activity does not decrease after the break). Secondly, the market could fail to break. In which case the 'aggressive' buyers are kinda stuck there at the top and a strong reversal is possible (caveat that the market has to break the current balance or trend to the downside). Anyway, there are other ways to view these and other types of action, I just like watching the cd to see it.
  2. TheNegotiator
    I would say that confidence is not the precise goal. It helps. But only if it is confidence through understanding and knowledge of yourself. For example, if you are confident because you just had a good run of trades, I'd say that unless you have a good deal of experience, you'll give it all back then some.
  3. TheNegotiator
    I think it also depends on how you are using your charts and how you are trading. To get an idea of important areas, it might work okay if not well. I would always strongly prefer to chart the EXACT instrument I trade.
  4. TheNegotiator
    I think that you are right about 'professional gamblers' here. I do think though that it depends on your interpretation of the word and your perception of reality.
  5. TheNegotiator
    I think this is an interesting subject. Personally I won't place a trade based on what a perceived leader of the market I trade is doing. However, I do think that if there is something clearly going on, it's worthwhile scaling some off or possibly exiting a trade if the leader is showing a clear break. As for what leads what, to me this is a perpetual question. It all depends on what is currently important to the markets. Look at big news or markets which are moving a lot, then watch to see if the market you trade is reacting to the movements. Don't force it. Use the relationship only when it's obvious. Also, it's worth noting that a certain market may move in sync with another at one time of the day and later on, it will 'follow' a different market.
  6. TheNegotiator
    Ah, welcome finally Sierra! Glad to have you with us and I always personally like to see fellow E-mini traders here at TL. Just remember, although we have a great deal of info to read, the most useful thing you will take from the site is direct interaction with other traders. It's really great to gain perspective this way IMO. I hope you enjoy yourself and I look forward to seeing you in the forums!
  7. TheNegotiator
    I heard it said by 'Buzzy' in Pitbull.
  8. TheNegotiator
    Isn't it just that when you see people who trade or gamble, actually although they may feel they know the risks involved, they really don't understand them properly. So although they see opportunity and feel they have appropriately weighed the risks involved, actually they are just rolling the dice. That's why most people lose. All these 'games' are effectively run by people and institutions who have fully analysed the risks involved and have a much better understanding of how they work. They are the 'house' and they profitable traders and institutions. They do see opportunity.
  9. TheNegotiator
    I have to ask josh, do you ever look at cumulative delta?
  10. TheNegotiator
    With context, some of the best indications given from delta are when heavy buying or selling fails to take out a level. In this case, I would say the first clump of +ve delta shows that there is buying interest which is likely to take the market higher. The second single high delta candle showed some strength although in isolation it would have to be questioned. A pullback to the high volume candle in the first delta push and failure to retake it to the downside should've said that the market was not quite ready to give up on it's attempt higher. When the test came however, it was on slightly lower volume but considerably lower delta. Coupled with the fact that it couldn't close above the high of the prior high delta candle, that would've said that at least the move up was over for now. Hope that make's some sense!!
  11. TheNegotiator
    Yes that is correct.
  12. TheNegotiator
    To me, gambling is just another badge society has to put on something so they can believe they understand it. More than anything, gambling and betting are just ways of describing the opportunistic nature we humans have. Double your money! Or many millennia ago - feed your family for months but maybe have to fight off scavengers to get your reward. The point is, I feel we are all risk takers at heart (semantics aside from whether you think gambling is thought out risk taking or not). That is potentially a reason we are attracted to trading.
  13. TheNegotiator
    True. But if trading were glamorised to the same extent as it is in casinos - and drinks were brought to you every few mins, might trading not be very similar in outcome? The games themselves and why we are attracted to playing them is perhaps far closer to trading than you think.
  14. TheNegotiator
    Surely you see punters and professional gamblers as different Qiman? I'd also like to ask you whether your strong feelings here stem more from the deeply engrained socially acceptable or otherwise...
  15. TheNegotiator
    I think it's all got to be viewed in context to current market activity and position of the market within the overall price structure. I am no big VSA expert although there are a few here on TL, but some of the principles are more widely used in trading. I think for delta though, I'd be using it as a confirmation. On a reversal such as the one you described, I would think a large negative delta to indicate an imbalance in trading would likely be useful in your decision making. You'd have to watch the delta though for these types of circumstances and see what you would believe to be a large delta imbalance in terms of the market and 'time'frame you trade is.
  16. TheNegotiator
    What I see is the breakdown of how this type of trading actually occurs. Usually it happens, after a period of decent gains, but not such good gains that one or two really bad and incorrectly risk managed trades couldn't wipe out. Good traders know when they are wrong quickly then they protect their accounts. Less experienced traders take longer to see they're wrong and then can't accept such a big loss and so it becomes bigger or additional trading on the same move or day adds to the losses. There is another point that leads up to these sorts of losses. Not applying strategies to appropriate market conditions. It seems obvious before and after the fact, but trying to fade the market when it has broken out of a consolidation range is likely to end in tears. So I would say that there is some technical, some psychological and some experience in stopping yourself from trading like this. Remember, probably one on the biggest tools for risk management a trader has is his arse - when it's used to sit on his hands.
  17. TheNegotiator
    I would say that for most people it is all about the money and the instant gratification from any successes we have. In fairness, from a psychological point of view, I am sure traders have many similarities to gambling addicts!
  18. TheNegotiator
    I'm not sure they're listening MM! :o Nice way of getting other traders to think about the implications of other traders' actions.
  19. TheNegotiator
    Yeah I would second that Mad! Unless you are sitting in an arcade with lots of other traders, the arcade owns a seat and you do some volume, I would think $1.18 is probably way too low for the total RT cost.
  20. TheNegotiator
    I am no expert on this but here is the contract specs for eur/usd micro future on the cme:- E-micro EUR/USD The minimum you can risk is the size of the contract. So in this case it is $1.25 per pip I believe.
  21. TheNegotiator
    I think we trade the markets but we hinder ourselves much of the time in various different ways including with our egos. The trouble is, self belief and conviction can easily be confused with what is actually ego. But self belief and conviction, once you have grasped a greater proportion of the day to day realities of the markets you trade, are of course what can make you a great trader. But also, self belief and conviction can also be mistakenly misplaced from a different profession or endeavour into trading, where the game can be quite different. You then see a new trader with potentially fantastic attributes to trade, shrivel up and shy away from the personality that may have made them one day, a highly successful trader. My belief is therefore to be a success in trading, either be a confident thinker about all these psychological aspects combined with market dynamics, or don't think about ego at all. Just do what works and look after your account. There have many very successful traders in the past who weren't necessarily the most academically gifted. Historically you'd see this in the pit. Ultimately for many of these guys it was about fight or flight.
  22. TheNegotiator
    At the moment the overnight action seems to be very much about probing. I could just as easily see us testing yesterday's high again as pushing on through the 1300 figure. We shall see of course.
  23. TheNegotiator
    Absolutely. Everyone is different in what works for them and their lifestyle and body. I really find lack of sleep a problem and have to stop trading by the afternoon. Otherwise, I get sloppy then angry!
  24. TheNegotiator
    Definitely. I am of course interested to see what you do next(although I'm an intraday trader only myself). Good luck!
  25. TheNegotiator
    Did you start this yet goldenbull?? It'd be very interesting to see a strategy like this as the account develops(or doesn't).
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