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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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What Demographic is Most Likely to Lose in Trading?
TheNegotiator replied to emg's topic in Trading Psychology
Ahimsa, I understand why it might upset you somewhat if someone were to insinuate that women are somehow inferior traders, but don't you think it might be an important idea to explore? On a purely prejudiced level, I think the question has little relevance, but from an intellectual standpoint it's a good question. The way women are naturally and the way women develop based on environmental interactions is clearly very different to men. There must be some useful studies out there on this that actually could help us all to better understand ourselves as traders. -
What Demographic is Most Likely to Lose in Trading?
TheNegotiator replied to emg's topic in Trading Psychology
I don't think it matters. As much as any member of a particular demographic wishes to believe that there is another group more likely to lose money than theirs, it really doesn't matter. There may be a slight skew at any given time but really there are plenty of trading losers in all walks of life. I actually disagree about women. If they were more inclined to try trading, actually many may do pretty well. Take a look at females in school. Always work hard, prepare well and have little ego. Of course this is general but I would say it's more prevalent in women. -
"Cowards die many times before their deaths" "A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
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I wouldn't try to assign anything yet. I don't trade the Fed when people are taking more notice of the outcome/statement as you just don't know who is going to jump in/out. I let it do it's thing and then I look at what it's doing after it's had time to digest.
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Steve, thank you for your kind offer to show me the way. However, I am quite happy the way I trade and make money doing so. Not to say you are ineffective trading the methods you use. But what you are talking about is not the point I was making. I have seen noob traders with slow computers and appalling connections lose lots of money down to naive attempts at scalping the market. It isn't the main reason they lose. But it happens, period. I agree with you that algos also operate in most other markets, but I would add that the intensity is just not the same. But hey, you can agree or disagree with me! That's the beauty of debate. The key thing about it I would say is that at some point even if you have an awesome amount of knowledge, you learn something.
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So going back to the original topic of the thread, is there anything specific that anyone uses with delta or cumulative delta to make their decisions less subjective? I know I don't so much other than contextual awareness of the market and the price areas I highlight for closer monitoring.
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"The Ben Bernanke" is just a man. He may think otherwise but the facts remain the same. If things spiral out of control, it won't matter what plan the Fed has. I don't believe that financial crisis we just saw was planned for was it? Anyway enough apocalyptic talk!! For now I agree. Stocks are going up as the economy is inflating artificially. It's not all of a sudden become strong. So commodities are being used as hedges. After all they are finite resources. There are other factors, but I think gold and silver are still undervalued based on this. I always tend to think that while people are still trying to pick a top(or a bottom) the market will keep on pushing.
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A trend is a trend is a trend and they say that a trend is your friend. However, I am not a breakout trader and if it were me, I would look to see what the action is like on any pullback. (btw, I am also not a forex trader)
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Yeah, that is a good point. To add to it, not only do the noobs often have a totally unsuitable internet connection, but they are competing with algos which have the fastest connection right next to an exchange and they have near zero reaction time for their decision-execution time. It's just a big exciting fruit machine basically for these guys!
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Hmm. I'm not entirely sure it needs elaborating steve. If you have a profitable method, you can do it with more contracts in the ES. I am sure your strategy has worked superbly well for you for 10 years plus. However, I wasn't commenting on your strategy. Just that although the ES is a very difficult market for noobs, it is also a very good market once it's learned.
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Well, I hope I could say it is more than just guesswork in the traditional way we would use that term. However, everything we do is fundamentally best guess. It's whether we understand the variables which are likely to be more critical to our specific set of circumstances which separates intelligent guesswork from just plain rolling the dice.
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Okay steve, enough of plugging your own threads already!! Lol. The ES is difficult for noobs because they are told to go for a liquid market and the ES is just that. But when they see all the action and mistake it for trading opportunities, they inevitably get sucked in and many do lose again and again. However, it is a solid and liquid market, meaning if you have an effective strategy, then you can scale up in size very well. Also, it is quite a technical market.
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It depends what you want to do with your PC Tradewinds. If you want it just for trading and/or charting, look for a decent quad core CPU PC but like Tams suggested, save yourself the headache and just find a prebuilt one. I know it's getting easier and easier to do a build but for someone out there who's never done it before, there are a good number of things that could go wrong. I doubt(so long as you do your homework) you'd fry your equipment, but if a component is faulty, you need to know what to look for to diagnose it then RMA it. Tams is clearly an enthusiast and/or gamer looking at the board he has, but you don't have to spend that much. If you are set on your own build, I wouldn't discourage it though. I do it myself and enjoy it thoroughly! But which cpu did you go for? I'd say for modest overclocking and a good warranty(5yrs) you might take a look at the asus sabertooth tuf (p67). Then make sure you get a good sandybridge overclocking guide and read it thoroughly. Actually, do that before you buy anything else!!
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The boards that these PC assemblers tend to use aren't exactly the top spec models. If you know how to put one together you'll get much more for your money. It can be a headache though so you really do need to be determined.
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There are probably way more traders who are also successful trading the E-mini S&P500 too. There are just way more traders in it period. If you don't like it, that's fine too. Just find a product which you 'like' and trade it.
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Thanks John! Just to elaborate slightly on the last comment I made, when you interpret the data in front of you contextually, you must also take account for your own fallibility and external influences which can turn the market on a dime. I know it's obvious, but any way in which we study a market is based on our interpretation of history and how those conditions may be likely to influence the future, with all things being equal. Delta/CD are no different.
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Another idea which can be seen in the markets at certain times is when institutions have to do a lot of business. Because of the size going through, they would move markets if they did everything at market, so many choose to do their business over some time and at the bid or ask. On occasion, the market will trend in one direction in price and in the other in cumulative delta. When this happens, my interpretation could be that this is a BIG player in the market. So thinking about the implications of the data you have in front of you is key.
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Why not use 1335.75 as that was a double top on 6th & 8th April?
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Yep, it's going pretty crazy right now over in silver. There is talk of price manipulation by certain investment banks. If things go wrong here, the current movement of silver could well be dwarfed. I encourage people strongly to google silver manipulation.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
TheNegotiator replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Hi legepe, Welcome to TL! You have come to the right place. I think read our forums. There is so much there and it is all free. You must understand what your goals are before starting investing/trading. I don't mean make lots of money for doing nothing either!! How much money do you have? How much time and effort can you put in? Take a look at:- http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/considerations-wannabe-trader-9328.html -
Doesn't it depend which way round your success comes? If you are successful with your money then trade OPM the stress is definitely more. For many though it is the other way around.
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Absolutely. The key is to be able to find what helps you and discard the plethora of other information/tools. The key is to understand what you are hoping to get out of something. I definitely think people come into trading quite haphazardly and the minimum required to do really well long term is a better understanding of EXACTLY why you want to do something oir look at an indicator etc. and that takes hard work and sometimes a great deal of thought.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
TheNegotiator replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Hi goodmanfx, Welcome to TL! What are you hoping to get out of mentoring? -
Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
TheNegotiator replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Hi John, Welcome to TL! Interesting background there. I'm wondering how you muster the energy to trade after a hard day of M&A?! But then I also read you like skiing, rock climbing etc. and so it becomes clear! Lol. The amount of time is definitely something I would say you should plan around and probably you need to be looking at trading over days/weeks rather than daytrading. I'm not 100% on your level of understanding but from your profile it suggests to me you are still learning(as indeed should we all be!). So given the amount of time you have, it's also very important to quickly identify and reject useless trading material. Learning from a good source is key, so for anyone who doesn't have a structure for their trading, I'd say focus on finding out a bit about various techniques. Not the nuts and bolts of the technique but the basis for the technique and whether there are important peripheral concepts you need to understand in order to employ a certain technique. That's why TradersLab is such a useful FREE resource. You can read and interact with guys who are using these tools. Anyway, enough of the ramble! Welcome John!! -
London Traders Expo - April 8-9
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Announcements and Support
Hi iwshares, Thanks for the thumbs up! It was really good to meet you and I enjoyed our chat. I hope I gave you some important ideas to address! Good luck in your trading!!