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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Which One Trading Rule Has Saved You the Most Money?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Trading
Lol. No, merely a thought on the pros and cons of the rules! -
I think I'd like to agree with these sentiments. I do agree. But I got thinking about it(a dangerous thing!) and feel that there has to be an additional element. I remembered watching a programme years ago on the subject of feral children. For those who are unaware of what these are, they are children who have been raised in the wild pre-developmental stage with no human contact. Bear with me please!! Now I know the following case is about speech centres of the brain but could it have bearing on any areas? The show had a girl who had been feral and could not speak. With intensive speech therapy, the girl did learn to talk but could never string together more than a few words to form a short sentence. It turned out that the speech centre was so underdeveloped that they concluded she would never be likely to speak as fully and fluidly as most of us take for granted. So my thought was, you describe the set of skills that would be invaluable to a trader. Being quick with numbers; making fast assessments of social situations and making risk based decisions which result in gain or loss; strong emotional discipline and determination to succeed etc., etc.. Then, you designed various levels of tests and exercises to promote these facets and assign them to a child from possibly even birth. Would these children develop far more than an adult who decided to become a trader then practise these skills? Is the role developmental phase a valid additional component to be a great trader?
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Which One Trading Rule Has Saved You the Most Money?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Trading
Taking small stop outs is a good one although somewhat subjective. If you lose focus on your system and start changing your targets, you can trick yourself into thinking it's a small risk at the time. I can definitely relate to you on being wide awake for trading Mystic! When I first started I had a bit of a trek to get into work, which was actually a good thing. After that I got a place right near the office and really just rolling out of bed into trading is not good for me! -
I would say that is a pretty sweet deal!!!
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I forgot to mention, I think a big part of it is your ability to learn from your experiences and adapt accordingly. "Men are wise in proportion, not to their experience, but to their capacity for experience." James Boswell (this could be wrong so please correct me if it is. poss Samuel Johnson)
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Trading can be a very profitable profession. Where there is a lot of money there tends to be a lot of competition. So what does it take to come out on top? Really? In something like professional sports, I think many more people would be quick to hold up their hands and say they couldn't compete at that top level. But is that true? Are these people naturally gifted to such an extent that nobody else can get near them? Or is it that they have had an unimaginable amount of hard work and experience? Or is it that they've been taught by the best?
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I think what is going to be far more relevant for an individual trader is spreading two closely correlated instruments. Any arbitrage opportunities that once existed I would hazard a guess have been strangled to death by algos.
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Expected that anyway. The economy is inflating so if M&A shows support, we could be in for a move significantly higher. BBB will have to be careful though if he's to take the proverbial punchbowl away...
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Which One Trading Rule Has Saved You the Most Money?
TheNegotiator posted a topic in General Trading
So we all have rules to adhere to when we trade whether we realise it or not. If not, I think we can all agree the likelihood of remaining in the black is low to zero. But is there one particular rule which for you personally, has made a BIG difference to your account size(%-wise)? For me personally, it's not trading NFP. I always traded news very actively in the past and did extremely well from it as I had a newswire and a fast connection to the exchange, but more importantly I have a good feel for how the market might react in particular big economic releases. "Great!" you might say. But come non-farm payrolls, I seemingly turn into a rabbit in headlights. I can never really work out the flow or the reasoning. I reckon it's probably because so many people trade it aggressively that actually that 'flow' tends to not show itself to a high degree in the initial trading post release. I know that there are traders who love NFP day. But hey, one thing I'm sure of is that when I stopped trading NFP I saved myself time, stress and most importantly, MONEY!! What's your golden rule? -
It's intentional. It's being re-evaluated.
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I am not less sceptical. I deleted a url in the post. It's still a useful whatever the motive.
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Thanks for sharing this metalsguru. I'm sure it will be very useful for anyone who is new to market profile.
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I think to some degree I agree with Rande here. It's a continuum of self-deception, but also and only slightly different, self-denial. Some guy taking money by corrupt or criminal methods knowingly might think that if they have that money, they can do good with it. What's the use in these rich guys having it anyway? Some dictator may think that by violently suppressing opposition, they are protecting their people and creating stability for the country. A trader is probably more in denial than anything though. You don't know what you are doing or you are not very good at self control or anything else, is not what you want to hear as a trader. Trading kills you or makes you grow up.
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[es] Stop Losses: Help or Hindrance?
TheNegotiator replied to AuctionMarket_Trader's topic in E-mini Futures
Then it makes very little difference to me. If you have a plan and an exit point then trade it manually or with a stop market/limit order. You are at your most objective before you enter a trade so changing the defined losing exit mid trade isn't something that should be done lightly. Probes and rotations should be taken account of pre-trade surely? Is this more of what you were discussing or are you talking about the mechanics of stops such as slippage? (surely not in ES) -
Indeed. Hence the not being entirely honest comment. "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"
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Well said Matt. I have to say that the ES does tend to separate the wheat from the chaff though. You have to prepare properly and work hard. But if you want to succeed, is that different from anything else in life?
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[es] Stop Losses: Help or Hindrance?
TheNegotiator replied to AuctionMarket_Trader's topic in E-mini Futures
I agree with el here. So many times I've seen traders put stops in silly places and inevitably get stopped out on what turns out to be a great trade. Not infrequently, you get stopped out to the tick. I don't think this is coincidence either as if you think about it, if it turns out to be a good trade, it's just the traders who are in the red on the trade who are exiting and not new trades being placed. So being stopped to the tick or close to that is not surprising imo. The most important thing about stops though and why they can be a real hinderance is poor entry position. Not waiting for the optimal entry position for your technique due to lack of market awareness in general or lack of focus on the market, or just inexperience has the potential to stop you out before you even enter the trade. I know people have written that actually entries don't necessarily matter in the long run, but if you find yourself being stopped out a lot(so long as you're not trading with a single tick stop or something silly) before the market turns and goes in the direction you'd hoped, take a look at those entries. Think about it. Most traders risk a maximum percentage of their account on each trade. If you enter in the wrong place or on the wrong swing, you end up messing up your r:r by changing the size of your trade so that you can afford to get stopped out where you are wrong as well as within your account parameters or you get stopped out before you are wrong. -
Yoga - Relax, Refocus and Make More Money!
TheNegotiator replied to tradergurl's topic in Trading Psychology
What do you mean by doing yoga though? Like exercise in general, I am pretty sure there are lots of different exercises which are designed to achieve certain desired effects. Some of these have got to be more useful for trading. Or do you think it's more about balancing the individual? -
Okay, so this is what I have so far:- Pattern- The study of specific market swings. Price- Considers specific prices that recur with "vibrations", Gann angles and retracement targets. Time- Seasonal, numerical and social cycles. Astrological cycles. Nothing so far is particularly unusual other than the astrological analysis. At this point I am not too sure about the relevance of this and I am not especially comfortable with it. Plus it's something that I have never looked at before so I will ignore it at least for now and try to further understand the techniques outlined above. Anything I have missed(and I am sure I have) please post it so I can update the list.
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Anyone else Share This Problem?
TheNegotiator replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Trading Psychology
To me, intraday trade 1-3 products. Swing/position trade anything given the product and it's current condition meet certain predefined criteria. There's nothing wrong with wanting to catch markets which are trading really well so long as you don't load up so your intraday trading really doesn't matter. Unless of course that's your primary style. -
[candlesticks] The Classic 'head and Shoulders' Pattern
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
That's an interesting study clmacdougall, however I would seriously question the reliability of such a claim. What were the parameters? Which timeframes were used? How were trades managed? In any form of statistical analysis, inaccurate conclusions can be drawn either by intention or by using flawed methods. Not to say this is the case in the study you mention, but I would certainly have to analyse it myself to some degree to have an idea of how good the study is. Just because it is in a book doesn't make it right. -
Hahaha! Excuse me I apologise. If anyone tells you that they are placing trades and they are 80% profitable they are probably not being entirely honest. They may omit certain trades. They may include trades they didn't take. 2 major, major points for you to consider though. Even if someone IS 80% profitable, could you actually follow them? I think it's pretty unlikely but you could try. If you do go into these rooms or go to seminars etc., without any prior knowledge of trading, how do you know whether what you're being told is any good at all???? Consider your options extremely carefully. Imo don't go near the website you mention or any other trading rooms, certainly not as a noob anyway.
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First off I use the term as 'scaling' in or out. But also I would say that it is used to increase a position like tw said as it moves favourably in your direction or at predefined entry levels. The premise of buying or selling around a price is not necessarily what I would call scaling a trade. I can see why you would want to do it to get your trade on though. Make sure that it doesn't skew you risk on the total position and that the commissions are not going to be prohibitive. I think in stocks you get charged by the number of trades you do and not by the number of shares you buy and sell total right? I thought it might be useful to mention this as you're probably still sim trading at this point and might not realise. Bad habits are hard to break and in trading, they can cost you big time!!
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[candlesticks] The Classic 'head and Shoulders' Pattern
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
A nice example of a potential H&S pattern today in the ES and how jumping the gun is not advisable! -
I have no particular experience of Gann and his teachings whatsoever but I would like to start this thread to learn and share anything on the subject. Whether the arguments are that certain aspects are pure lunacy(pun intended!) or if there is actually more merit in any of the methods that arguably the greatest ever trader/investor that ever lived employed. So I'll be trying to find info and learn about this topic from scratch and any additions to get me going would be much appreciated!!