TheNegotiator

I got stopped out for a loss at 1321.00. I had hoped to ride it if there was some momentum but I guess not. We'll see what happens if we get a daily close below the 1319.25.

The IB low/38.2% session retracement look to have held for now so I'm shorting 1319.75 but will monitor closely for signs of strength. Needs to push on fairly quickly though.

Thanks guys for the input so far! I realise that to really get anything out of Gann will not be all that easy, but then what is? So I am going to continue looking into it more and see what comes of it. I think it'll be interesting whatever the outcome.

Rande, what about the positive aspects of a successful trader? Are these born or bred? I know you have experience with clients who will come to you so perhaps you don't have a pure sample to judge this on. A bit like curve fitting if you will! But still, with the number of traders you have come across there must be some aspects which you see as innate ability in the individual concerned. The question is whether these are genetic or not...

If you have no way of backing yourself up and nothing to add, you will be prevented from posting here. By all means disagree and back yourself up. However, this is a forum for ideas. I suggest to anyone who is interested, take a look at emg's thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/3/emini-s-p-500-day-trading-7705-86.html

This chart was some more structure backing up the idea of a minimum of a short term correction down. I remain open to ideas though and I'm trying to not talk myself into the trade! Any charts you can post to identify a more bullish skew on the ES would be welcome!

Simple but thorough is the way I would always suggest to go. I think you're right though Blowfish. Anyone COULD learn how to trade. An important thing to recognise though is although there are core principles(which in fact are just common sense really imo) the things each individual needs to learn to be a successful trader, may be need to be different depending on their personality. Square pegs don't fit in round holes. That's why people always talk about finding a market and style that suit you. Another important point is the way we are wired(nature, nurture and development) makes us perceive the markets and trading in a non-productive way from the moment we start to look at trading. Not all people but many experience this. Perception and attitude must change before a trader becomes successful.

Emg, if you want to post in this thread you'll have to at least attempt to explain your thinking more than you do in your thread "Emini S&P 500 Day Trading Journal".

Okay, so much like the "Reading Charts in Real Time" thread, this thread will be for sharing ideas about future price moves of all the e-mini index futures. Any styles or strategies are welcome, but please do your best to share the thinking behind them! So to get us rolling, I have an idea to put to you. Below is a chart of the ES. Take a look before reading on. My idea is a sell on a failure to hold 1320. Volatility has increased over the past few days and frequently this is seen at extremes of markets. It is also in a triangle formation with lower highs and higher lows. So far it has resisted attempts to close in the minor 3 day balance highlighted. A close in or below this balance could see at the very least, a liquidating selloff. My entry idea would be either to sell a retest of the minor balance high around 1334 if we test and fail to break the prior balance high(red line) at 1320. Or if we fail at the balance high at 1320, fade any move back towards it. Any thoughts?

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Not sure. I thought it wasn't working at all a while back. I'll keep you posted on the progress when I get something back.

Yeah, I see the same thing. I'll get it looked at. In the meantime, if you look for a thread with very few posts in the results, click it then find the user. Click the username and then click "Find All Posts By..." Sure you know this, but just in case

Futures are a good starting point but perhaps forex would be suitable for your trend following methods. Lots of competition with forex brokers which is good too.

GCB, the simple ones are always the best! But the simpler they are, the harder some people find they are to follow. You have to see and understand why they are important rules. Essential rules in fact. Siuya, I agree and you are pretty clear with your posts btw! I guess it just depends on what your style is as to how your profits relate to either each trade or your account.

Just watch the markets intraday when they are moving down to see if it's a correction or a trend reversal. To me, at the moment whenever there is a correction, big buyers are lurking still. Speculator shorts dry up and get caught. Then in the next couple of days, a big move back up happens as the shorts are forced to cover. Before going short for the trend or larger correction trade, I'd have to not see that demand stepping in and for a continuation through important levels for a couple of days at least. Missing out on perfect location when trend trading is not as bad as being wrong about the reversal.

How dare me? Well you definitely missed the point I'm afraid. As Stanton said, how does a beginner know what a high probability setup is? Otherwise why is there such a high failure rate and so many blown up accounts? Everyone who tries to trade should be a millionaire right? Maybe even a billionaire. J/k. But the likelihood is they will think they know how to trade. Trading is a highly competitive game and it's unlikely that you'll make money as a beginner by being more skillful and faster than seasoned pros. You probably were just lucky. But you won't know it. Losing the money by trading in a way you think is correct, will piss you off. You'll probably start pushing harder to make it back. Maybe start averaging in on losing trades. Before you know it you'll have an empty account and a damaged ego.

Maybe, but it's not always quite that simple. As far as the turtle discussion goes, I don't think it's an especially useful comparison, although it's of course fascinating nonetheless. Firstly, there were interviews and specific characteristics were looked for so the study was skewed. Secondly, one style was taught to the trainees and we all know there are many different styles people can trade successfully depending on their personality/aptitudes. Lastly, I would say that the nurture aspect is the way you are brought up and the values you have etc., not specifically what/how well you are being taught specific trading strategies.

Haha. Maybe listen? If you are looking at a market profile, there is a difference as volume is approximated by TPOs. If you are looking at a volume profile, there should be NO difference. If you are really looking at a volume profile, I would suggest going and looking at your indicator settings. In some I have seen, you need to manually set the VA type to Volume as it defaults to TPO. The indicator you have if it is from the forum may not have the option even to change the VA calculation method. Imo Ninja is not great for MP/volume profile. Hope this helps.

If people are using standard market profile and they are referring to volume, they are not being strictly accurate in their description. A market profile TPO or print, is generated by any amount of trading at a price in a single time period. It does not depend of volume, but is used as an apporximation to volume given the likelihood that the longer the amount of time spent at a price the more volume that probably traded there. It doesn't matter though if within the time period you are looking at, a price trades 1 contract or 10,000 contracts, it will still only get a single TPO for that time period. When the next period comes around, a price can receive an additional TPO but again only once within the same time period. If for example you are trading a product and it trades in a 30 period from a price of 100 to 200 in the first 1 min, then remains between 180 and 200 for the remaining 29 mins of the period oscillating up and down, this is what you would see using different profiles. 30min profile:- A line of single TPO prints. 1min profile:- A single line of TPO prints up to 180 then many more prints between 180-200. This reflects the fact that prices from 100-180 only traded in a single period but prices between 180-200 traded in multiple different 1 min periods. The 30min profile covered only one single period so prices couldn't accumulate additional TPO prints. Did you take a look at the CBOT MP manual? http://www.cmegroup.com/education/interactive/marketprofile/handbook.pdf

:haha: I hear you say. But really. I think that this is perhaps the single biggest factor in the high failure rate of new traders. Perhaps it would be better put that you should not expect to make money. Let me put it in a different way. A beginner will come into trading and have had very little experience of anything similar. The market will however look familiar somehow and tease them into thinking small successes are down to skill. After all, humans like certainty and are quite happy to congratulate themselves when they think they are good at something. Would you expect to pick up a guitar and then a month or two later be playing at a rock concert? Would you expect to pick up a paintbrush and shortly after have an exhibition on display at the Louvre? Probably not. The difference is though that poor trading costs you your money. Coming into trading, you will be pitted against seasoned professionals, massive hedge funds, banks and computer systems to name but a few. Losses early on affect more than just your bank balance. They affect your emotions and your ability to learn and develop confidence in your understanding of markets and methods you use to trade. If you don't understand how to 'take a loss' this can be catastrophic. Do yourself a favour, when you start trading, trade to trade well, not to make money!

It is time based. With market profile, each price traded within a certain period gets allocated a TPO letter for that period once only no matter how much it trades during that period. The VA calculation is not simply 70% of the TPO (which btw in standard MP is just an approximation of volume). The most important thing to realise in understanding the difference in value area when then timeframe is switched is that on a 1 min TF for example the price may span 20 ticks in a half hour period which would have a single TPO for each price, but price may have moved in one direction and stayed at the extreme of this move. So on the 1min, more TPO's would be generated at the extreme within the 30min period.

Fair enough on point 2. I that for me though, breakthroughs of any significance must combine all factors. As far as the speech point goes, you said the ability to learn languages diminishes with age. This is my point. The implications were that the ability is present via a physical and chemical mechanism during the developmental stages of life which later on in life, disappears. Speech is a very clear manifestation of this as every 'normal' human being learns to talk and develops speech centres and so on. This is the 'hardwiring' phase. My idea is that if not only were humans equipped with the knowledge and understanding of the markets but also had these skills 'hardwired' in the developmental stage, would the results be far more positive than if the same exercises were applied to a group of intelligent adults post developmental phase?

Hmm, I see the benefits of what you are saying here Siuya. However, I also see an issue for at least for my way of thinking. If you keep the stops small and the market starts giving you smaller profits on winners and your loss percentage increases, you end up getting stuffed! So presumably you would want to have an overall profit target threshold for a particular strategy to be employed, which would likely be a combination of win:loss ratio and risk:reward ratio. So really, there is a minimum profit target as otherwise the method would fail. So the way I see it is coupled with a money management strategy, stops and profit targets must be related.

Mad, I think this is a very useful rule when applied to heavily trending markets. However, I would also add that when a market is not trending at all and this happens much of the time short term, reversion traders who fade the market are the ones who are cleaning up. So it really depends on your timeframe I think. Long term trading I think that the rule makes more sense.

Interesting and well thought out points zdo! I have to read some Gladwell. I have "The Tipping Point" sitting right in front of me along with a stack of books 2ft high!! I really need to learn to speed read!! Anyway, a quick question on the points of talent being under and overrated. I think I would reverse the two personally. I would say day to day consistent performance(to whatever extent) is more about determination and mindset. I think that can be taught. Breakthroughs generally occur with the extraordinary talents of this world. One more idea to throw into the mix that I believe I mentioned somewhere else in the forums. Luck. The few good traders I have known compared to the extremely successful traders are often only separated by a run (or single day in some cases) of excellent trading given exceptional circumstances. It allows them to move to the next level. Of course the truly exceptional traders tend to capitalise when their luck appears...