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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Treat trading as a business and with a great deal of respect. It is a game, but it's not a game you want to lose. You must be accountable.
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It's interesting isn't it though that we are always searching for additional indicators. I think that there are two reasons for this. Firstly, we have a lack of acceptance of ambiguity and so require more 'certainty' for our trading/what the market IS going to do. Searching and monitoring multiple things follows this. Secondly, what MMS said made me think of this. Our attention span for a market which is doing or perhaps more accurately 'achieving' very little, is about as much as it is for watching paint dry(unless you have some kind of odd hobby!). So there is this intellectual 'concentration gradient' where an immensely active mind needs to be 'filled' with something to figure out or focus on when not much is going on in the market. I am sure Rande would have something to say on this...
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Personally, I don't use any indicators like oscillators etc. but will look much more at volume based charts such as delta in a few different ways. I used to look at many, many different markets to try to get a leading market but I often found myself putting too much emphasis on moves in instruments other than the one I was trading. So now I look at only my primary market and when I am trading others clearly those too. I monitor my quoteboard for any big moves and perhaps take a look if any markets require my attention. I also have been closely following $ as often this is the driving force at the moment. Listing the things I monitor actually makes me realise that I do monitor an awful lot of things to try to help my trade decisions. I actually am quite comfortable with keeping up with these right now and I never feel as though I am losing myself during busy periods. So I would say I monitor 7 or 8 different markets and metrics at any one time with varying emphasis on each. Anyone think that is too much or too little? Do a count of your own and compare it with other guys setups.
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This question is clearly aimed at discretionary intraday short to ultra short term traders. How many different markets/indicators/metrics do you feel a trader can effectively monitor in real time to support trade decisions? To me at least this is an interesting question as I have seen so many traders' screens lit up like an arcade with different indicators and others where there is so little that it barely seems worthwhile having the chart at all. They say that traders have to have the mental agility of a fighter pilot to keep up with everything, but are all the instruments we use really necessary and do complicated screens actually tend to distract us more than anything else?
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Yoga - Relax, Refocus and Make More Money!
TheNegotiator replied to tradergurl's topic in Trading Psychology
So what have you guys found more helpful/easier to keep up? Doing yoga on your own or in a group? -
If NLP is to work then, it sounds as if you need some sort of reference point. Unfortunately, the vast majority of us aren't in the position where we have first hand knowledge of the inner workings of great traders' minds. Maybe you could share one or two nuggets FJK?
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How Did You Find Your Style And/or Market?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Trading
I personally had some guidance in that I began trading at a prop firm. I was lucky enough to have found some success in the products I traded although they never felt quite right. I knew that I was always going to want to understand what was going on technically and why the market was trading in the way it did. I was able to experiment with small size in various different products until I found one which I felt more comfortable with. That happened to be the ES. Many traders I realise, get sucked into trading a big and liquid market with low margins and high hopes. That was not where I came from. I just got it(well not always!!). I'm not sure how I personally would have chosen a market if I'd started as a retail trader. -
So when we first start to trade we are told to find a market and a method which "suit" our personalities. First off, how do you do this with no prior experience of trading or guidance from someone who does? But if you have a sound methodology does it really matter anyway? Does the personality aspect of finding a method and market have more to do with the current market phase of an individual product rather than the product itself? Are you a great trend trader or do you prefer bracketing markets? My question is therefore, have you found your method/product? If you have, how did it happen? Through careful planning and understanding of your particular needs or by sheer chance? If you haven't, what are the dead ends you have been down searching for an answer? Or, do you disagree with the sentiment entirely and believe that you should be able to use any method in any market if you are good enough?
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Urma, please explain your indicator in more depth. This is not a thread for marketing and I am sure if people are interested they can read exactly the same material on your indicator website.
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pbylina, thanks for the info. I will take a look. Urma, I definitely see your point about using balance of trade in regards to harmonics. However, many people do still trade by price and price patterns. Maybe this isn't optimal but there are some who suggest that actually, entry isn't even the most critical part to making money trading. So does it even matter being that precise anyway? All you need is some sort of edge and strong money/trade management and you should come out on top right? As a discretionary trader anyway. I am interested with the idea presented though. However, I am not sure I understand the explanation in principle at all. Are you talking about acceleration of price movement or buying/selling displacement(or delta) or something else? Is this indicator based purely off executed market orders or is there an additional variable guiding the outcome?
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Here's a simple visual for you which explains that as you risk a smaller %, your number of losing trades in a row before account ruin increases exponentially.
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What is the betting that the ES will close this 30min candle between 1315.00-1315.75? Pretty high I reckon, but if it doesn't it could be a clue to what happens next.
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Unfortunately the $ is showing signs of reversal. To me, the minis are too dependent on the $ at the moment so I scratched. Could be wrong but I don't want to get chopped either!
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Not too comfortable but small short here. Not the ideal time of day so we'll see how this one goes.
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Thinking about selling on a break then retest of this trend line. fairly tight stop needed though.
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If it's likely to do one thing and it's not doing it, it'll usually do the opposite. I'm on the sidelines for now though until it gets a bit clearer what it is going to do.
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ES has some important tests to make depending on where it opens today. 1316.00 low from 17th May then down to the current overnight low at 1312.25 which is also an area for me. A failure to hold 1316 and I'll sell if the price action convinces me. Would then look to the overnight low. An open above the 1316 and failed test could see a push back towards the 1327 area which was also Friday's low. (whether you like gap closes or not;))
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[candlesticks] The Classic 'head and Shoulders' Pattern
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
For me, the key is not to LOOK for these patterns. But if you know them and they pop up clearly, they can work very well. -
Hmm. How far were you hoping YM sold off to? Didn't it get to the places where you said you would be closing your short?
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Looks like that would have been a great trade there sdoma. I did suspect that there was a decent chance that the european session test of that area might have been the one and only chance today to get short there. Still, one or two nice opportunities in these markets so far today. I know it's after the event now, but there was an especially nice little short in ES when it broke out of yesterday's range, then failed to get back into it on the first test. It was also the 38.2% session retracement. Same thing in YM by the looks of things.
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Sounds like a good plan if it gets there. Not a whole heap out today so it will be important to try to gauge activity early to see if it's going to be quiet or not. If it is, there could well be a late break in either direction.
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Emotion, yes I have an interest in this idea of time too and certainly it is something I wish to explore more. In the past I have also charted by taking time out of the picture using volume charts. But I find that although useful, they fail to illustrate the tempo of the session. Another point I have heard of but am yet to understand fully is that Gann looked at an additional dimension on a chart. Not just the x/y of price/time or even volume or a derivative, but a kind of depth to the chart itself. A spiralling motion which defines the oscillations of the market. Not sure how useful it could be but I'm certainly intrigued.
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Well clearly that particular trade didn't work. But hey, you can't win them all and the nature of the business is to look for trades which you believe have high risk:reward ratios. That particular trade had it worked, could've been very profitable. I hope more traders want to discuss their trading ideas here.
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Thanks. Will get it changed.
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Well substantiated sdoma. Pity about it being post the event! I actually made some decent money when it became clear the market was not accelerating lower and ran a trade from the ES opening price (1322) back into yesterday's range. Pity about the short later on but it really doesn't matter too much. I'm not really a multiday position trader but I wanted get the thread started as I think it could be a really beneficial one for many to see reasoning then how the market plays out. emg your posts are about as useful as a chocolate teapot.