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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Yup and because of where we are technically, the kind of sell-off moves we have seen recently AND options expiry, panic kinda set in. Two options(choices). One scalp as you probably get the same reward as you would normally, or two really bide your time, wait for good areas and make sure you close out positions quick if they aren't going the way you expected (including how not just direction).
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Er Philly Fed? All I have to say is OMG! -30.7 exp 2.0
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Right, interesting day today. Lots of data out. Yesterday, ES really didn't end up doing all that much in the end. Balance range was extended but nothing really changed. Pre-open, we've been testing those levels I had mentioned as important... Breaking through post releases.
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Hi Jon, Not sure I quite get the question. Are you asking whether to day trade, or trade long term? Or have you been told not to day trade futures elsewhere?
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In all, not much was achieved today. A neutral day to follow a neutral day. Although the price action picked up, the objectives set out were defining in containing the ES. More action in this area does create tension for a stronger breakout of the balance. The tighter and longer the balance, the more likely it is to shoot off when balance is broken. Anyway, here's the after chart today.
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It can be difficult to use another market as a lead as relationships come and go. Dollar index is a decent gauge for ES at the moment although I wouldn't take a trade based off it. Anyway, for Tuesday I have had an initial look at the story and attached is a chart for you to look at. No rights or wrongs btw. Just showing you a part of what I am looking at at this moment. So one thing to bear in mind is that the overnight picture is not yet complete as the chart is 3.5hrs before RTH open and as always anything can/will often happen. So you have to have an idea of the other side of the story if the market starts to look strong. Yesterday opened pretty much on Friday's high, failed to enter the range, looked higher and then retested the low. After it failed to go much lower, ES basically trended up for the rest of the day. The point that interested me somewhat was that 1200 initially rejected and on further buying towards close, the VPOC for the day was put in at 1199.50 following by a not unusual close within the initial balance at 1196.50 on what was a neutral day. So the VPOC was put in below 1200 after having moved up into close. I think this shows that there were opposing sellers at this point on the first test. To have a better feel for the market today, I would want to see what the action is by open and on open. Just remember that given volatility, news items, eco releases speakers etc. have the potential to move the markets right now.
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It's looking strong, but overall the market has had a big shock. I think we may go up but I'm wary of finding sellers too. It doesn't matter too much which way it goes though, I plan for both.
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Come over to the http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/9773-day-trading-e-mini-futures.html thread and post your ideas. I know it's not a chatroom, but it's there to discuss opinions on the minis.
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Area between Friday's VPOC 1176.00 & close 1177.00 may be a good initial gauge of initial intentions if we test it. Overnight low is currently 1176.25 so that is a decent enough pointer that importance has been placed on it. To the up side, it's likely to be Friday's high. So currently the market is balanced between Friday's volume point of control and its high.
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So for this week, my initial focus will be on listening to the market to ascertain its intentions. Will there be a move higher and what will that show? Will it be reversal type behaviour or will it be further retracement before sellers step in? Or will the balance from last week be retested? The boundary between the two distributions from last week fall at 65 and 63 is also an important area. The next thing I'll be monitoring based on this is the relatively tight balance from Friday and the conviction of any breakout from its price range. Overnight action so far has been skewed to the up side, although it has been contained by Friday's high(by 3 ticks). If there is more action upwards, I'd want to see development above 1193 and 1200 area.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
TheNegotiator replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Welcome to TL Spectrade! Thanks for sharing a little about your story with us. You're of course very right about discipline being particularly hard in trading. The key for me is to be confident in my strategy and pinch myself when I am down to remind me that this one loser will only matter if I make it by not sticking to my downside risk plan! Anyway, I hope you get involved in the forums as it's a great way to see what your peers think! -
Steve, I never really got on that well with Bollinger Bands personally, but I know people use them and they find them useful. What I think is key is how you are using them. That is in this case you are trying to see what the behaviour is of the market in relation to the BB, around the the zones you have identified as previous places where supply and demand were not in balance. The BB example you posted tells me that the market has pushed away from exponentially weighted moving average of price to the up side and has moved through the 2nd standard deviation and failed to move beyond the zone of interest. The point I was a little more interested in was actually the second attempt on the same level which actually showed a contraction in the BB at the high of the candle. I do seem to remember that BBs are used in this way sometimes, to identify potentially price reversal on an extreme test and band contraction. Question is, would you consider using this type of entry strategy to add more at the BB contraction point? In all though, identifying zones and trading them is imo not going to be enough. There must be other factors in your trade selection based on what the market is doing as the zones which have been identified are based on what the market has done.
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Considerations for a Wannabe Trader...
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Beginners Forum
Hi Jerry, First of all, welcome to TL. (welcome to Jim too!). You have definitely touched on an important point which transcends style and timeframe. Sticking to your plan. Doing what you know you must is something which is much easier said than done. People do suggest that a military background can help with that as you have to take orders. Well, your plan for trading, outside of the trading hours you work, are the orders you must take. You wouldn't go into a combat zone without a plan or randomly deviate from the plan. So the plan must be thorough and when you do trade, you must document it so you can account for your actions and debrief. If you do this, you are much better positioned to understand how the strategy worked or didn't without attaching hollow meaning to market action. MM added another really important point which is overlooked by many and this is money management. You must have plans on how to deploy your funds effectively and how to protect them when things inevitably don't follow your expectations. Also, if you have a strategy which you have thoroughly researched and you trust, you can in most cases use money management to increase your stake gradually and safely. I think the important thing here is to see the money that you have in your account as trading resources and not money which you have in your pocket. They aren't the same. So to increase your position size enough to consistently be making enough money to pay yourself well, you'll have to not expect to draw any money out for a while. You are going in the right direction if you have a strategy that you are confident works. Just remember that most of trading is not about the trade itself, but all the preparatory work you do to give yourself the best possible chance of being profitable in the long run. -
1139.75? ............................
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I've known about Mumford & Sons for a while now. They were quality at Glastonbury this year! Perhaps even better than the headline act Beyonce! :puke: Redlight King seem pretty decent too.
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Thought I'd share a chart for anyone who is still out there! Who would have thought a couple of weeks or so ago that a 19.25 point day would be dull?!? In fairness, there have been a few very nice opportunities, such as selling the initial balance high back to vwap/50%/day low volume(and something else which I can't think of right now!), reversing the same trade and buying at double test and fail of yesterday's vpoc/close early on. Anyway, seeing as how we are pretty well balanced up to now, I was looking at my chart to see what we would have to take out if there were to be a late break of any substance in either direction, barring any game changing news. Here it is. Any thoughts?
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Staying in an objective state of mind is one of the most difficult things in trading, especially when you have a trade going against you.
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Update today, although the ES was skewed to the upside today, nothing has changed from what I said in the last post. Development continued for the most part in the 3-day balance. Although we probed higher and showed strength, reversal on close was strong enough to suggest that there is more development left. So it's still possible to move strongly either way tomorrow. Don't second guess the market. Let it tell you what it wants to do.
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Ninjatrader have a decent sim. You can take a month trial with a broker or put down a small amount of capital.
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Ain't that the way though sometimes? I agree about the outflow from the indices. I saw how day traders flowed strongly out of bonds into the indices. Clearly, when it's tough to make money in any given market, money moves. But I think that the retrace in silver was a bit of a slap to remind us all quite how easy reversals happen and with the recent capitulation in stocks, it's really anyone's guess as to how the economy will truly be in 5-10yrs. Anyway, if you'd like to post charts in this thread (with no links ) it'd be interesting to see your views on silver etc.
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Hey Lil Miss! Two questions. One, is your avatar really you? Two, is the we you are speaking of 'the royal we'? Lol. In all seriousness. (please don't post your links ) I believe silver is potentially consolidating before moving onwards and upwards. I think that there is potentially a quiet before the storm going on here. Gold kinda did the same thing if you look at my post on the http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/9653-forget-gold-you-silver-bullet-train.html thread. I do think there's opportunity in silver, but like most things right now, timing is everything. It's easy to be sucked into a market that could look very different the next day or even hours from when you enter.
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US Dollar Becoming Toilet Paper
TheNegotiator replied to NeoTrader's topic in Risk & Money Management
I think it's more than just the $. Paper money is just a fabrication and can be printed like monopoly money. Gold for example is giving a fairly clear indication of what people think about this. It has intrinsic value and as far as I know, alchemists haven't been able to turn lead into gold so far! I think the important thing to try to maintain when it comes to paper money is relative stability. We don't want any major currency out of control and value needs to be changing steadily. That way, economies adapt over time. Also, it forces you to look to real assets which move in proportion to currencies(and perceptions). -
Here's a thought on what ES is trying to do. Attached is a long term volume profile similar to the one I posted before. 1163 area is still the 'line in the sand' for me and with that as a point of reference, the last three days worth of action have suggested a couple of things so far(and tentatively). Value is building below the prior accepted 1163 area and although it is broad and it is only 3 days so far, volume is substantial elevated compared to what is 'usual'. Any further development below this 1163 area could possibly suggest intention to attempt to test the lower and bigger boundary at 1058. However, being that the market is sensitive to news at the moment, any reasonable development above 1163 could mean shorts will scramble to exit and create a short covering rally of decent or strong magnitude. The next few days will be important to decipher whether value continues to develop as it is or if this is a pause or if even we are ready to test the recent weakness with a rally. Manage your risk and wait for the right moments.
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Peter, Thanks for sharing your experiences of esignal. I had a different experience and generally I prefer other platforms over it. Value clearly has more to do with what is offered to you and whether it facilitates trading profits when compared to the competition. Trading/charting platforms are a business expense indeed and therefore must be evaluated in terms of value. So a $100p/m platform might be expensive and a $1,000p/m platform might be cheap. Regardless of profitability. Of course if you are a rookie trader who is learning the ropes, paying $1000+ per year is pretty pointless unless it offers you something you can't get for less somewhere else.
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There are various news squawks if you do a search on the net for them. I would say use one but know their limits. Make sure that you can 'see' that what they have said is being confirmed by reaction in the market you are trading. Note also that often market participants react to news prior to absolute confirmation and that when it turns out they are wrong, the market reverses hard the opposite way and squeezes them out. The real news source you need to trade news quickly if you are so inclined, is say a Reuters or Bloomberg terminal, which link in to their respective newswires- which most stories originate from. These are very expensive though (in the order of thousands of pounds a month).