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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Pretty similar to yesterday early on here where move up was followed by selling. It's important though not to lose perspective as to where we are and the magnitude of recent moves. Bernanke's speech tomorrow is important and given the swing to higher prices, the selling here could be more to do with taking some risk off the table. But who knows. We'll have to see as always what the market DOES.
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At this point we are in short term vertical distribution and searching out previous areas. Lots of news coming out. Berkshire to invest 5bil in BAC looks to have just caused a pop. The big G is apparently surrounded by rebels. Tomorrow is clearly an important speech by the big B. Could be some movement. If we really start to motor I'll post another chart.
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Here's the chart today.
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Correct. @ES# for DTN IQFeed.
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Sorry again for the rubbish annotations!! So the chart below is what we've done so far. 1) Pushed on yesterday's high, pulled back then blasted through. I'd say as we were pretty close to the 1163 area it wasn't unexpected that we'd show some strength on a break here. 2) Failed to break through 1174.50 high volume and get to low of prior balance area at 1177.50. Considering the manner in which the move was happening, this was a little surprising and longs clearly won't be too happy about it. It was pretty clear at the time that supply was coming in when watching the action though. 3) A test of the 1163 area initially showed promise. 4) Failure to push on after the 1163 test saw a further flush push lower. 5) Currently, ES is holding above yesterday's closing price and developing more in the high volume zone. This may give longs some hope if it can hold and build later on. Edit: We just broke through yesterday's close, so the current low of the day is next up and then the prices marked up on the last chart.
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I think we can safely say we have come out of that 4-day balance!! It did react to the 1163 area but really not much. Pretty strong at the moment. 1177.25 then 1189.50/1190.50 up next.
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So here's a chart looking at yesterday and the current balance which now spans 4 days. (I think I need to get one of those graphics drawing tablets to annotate these charts!) So yesterday tested the whole range give or take. A note on the charts is that any discrepancy between the profiles right and left is down to the fact the right hand chart is 0.5 points per volume bar. Mechanically I felt it worked nicely yesterday and responded well to points of interest. The VPOC for the 3-day profile was 1140 but had changed to 1138 before that double test you see on the chart(this was also the IB high). For today, I'll be watching those points marked on the right hand chart with particular interest. At this point, we are still in balance until activity and price says otherwise. Lots of news and uncertainty and some eco releases of note fri.
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What is the Best Multi-monitor PC for Day Trading?
TheNegotiator replied to hirsi1's topic in Tools of the Trade
Do you need 3-4 monitors? You could just go for one big led tv and use that. I think this question is way too open ended. What is the best multi-monitor pc? Go for any high end pc with a dual xeon mobo setup, masses of ram, raid array of ssd's and quad sli nvidia gtx 590 gpu's. Then you could run 8-12 monitors and act as a server at the same time. What do you need and how much would you be prepared to spend? -
I think that's got to be the prerequisite for any application of any method used. It has to be researched and researched thoroughly. Otherwise, it's easy to trick yourself into negative or positive belief about the usefulness of the item in question.
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Hi IWS, I don't use it myself. I'm not saying you should or shouldn't do so. The question is though, if you want to use it, how would you use it? As a specific trade parameter or would you use it as background information?
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Okay, so what's happened over the last 3 days? Basically balance has been found between two areas of longer term importance. 1163 and 1118 (ish). The picture attached shows the 3 day balance along with a long term profile which excludes specifically said 3day balance volume data. So quite clearly the volume is trading around the two previous areas and forming a double distribution. So what then? Well, I'll be viewing ES and noting whether it can develop further in these areas and the 3-day balance as a whole. Important areas are fairly clear. As always, must see what happens when it gets to them.
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I meant the band which I highlighted previously was fully tested in the first move. The band corresponded more than anything to a visual inspection of the long term volume profile(green) and it was denoted in the chart by the two thin red lines at 1147.50 and 1132.75.
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So what next today? Note:While I was doing the picture, we did just push a little lower.
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Nothing really changed so far. One way auction but remains in balance.
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Just one more thing... Here's a chart identifying near term support references IF things start to reverse. (if things really don't go well, then 1097/95 will need to be watched(just in case ))
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Well looking at the current 2-day profile there is plenty of reason to suspect balance. However, the market is news driven and so could potentially push up quickly if there is sufficient strength. The volume high for the 2-day balance is around 1140. Key initial reference points will be last Mon-Weds balance low 1177.50 and Wednesday close 1189.50. Closer by is the 1163.25 high volume and 1161.00 Thursday high. Stay alert and be open minded about how price can move. Imho.
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Here's a quick chart for this morning.
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Here's a little chart for anyone who's around. Looks like value is still roughly where I had posted before(red lines on 2nd chart today). Interestingly though,on a RTH session profile, volume seems to be somewhat reflecting what is on the long term profile. I feel maybe we're underdeveloped so far a work is still to be done.
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No problem JD! So long as they are helping people, that's the main thing. Hopefully more people will come in and contribute work of real substance. Steve & sdoma have been good when they've posted too.
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It's excitable again, that's for sure!
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So what about today? Well, news flow is high, data is low and options boys will probably be going crazy! Overnight at this point, ES has tested 1117.50 which is significant as it's the high of the highlighted lower acceptance area in the previous chart, it's a low volume point on long term profile and it's a highish volume price on last week's profile. If we were to consolidate over the next few days and contract, building up for a new move, it's also pretty much the value area low from last week. So there's some significance potentially. I'm not suggesting btw, you just blindly trade at the points I am mentioning here, in past posts or in future posts. You really have to see what is happening in those areas and work your plan into it. Yesterday I noted that perhaps some value was being found around 1140-44 area. A further foray lower followed by a retracement back to this area into close strengthened this view. However, it's always possible that perception of value could change. Overnight did push lower and ES stopped at an important point imo. The move way away from this perceived value wasn't actually that unpredictable. Volatility and news are moving the markets right now, so it'll be interesting to see how trade develops throughout RTH. Options expiry will muddy things somewhat. Currently ES is hovering around yesterday's low and although there is 30mins to go before open, it may want to test around the 1128.25 before deciding where to push initially. We'll have to see where we open...
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Did you mean to post a chart at all Steve? Anyway, in an attempt to decipher possible intentions of the ES, I have a longer term chart with a profile including all data to the 2009 low (yes there is a difference as it is a continuation contract). Given that this is what is more relevant, the green composite will be from this date going forward(for now). So, very simply I have highlighted the 2 major zones of price acceptance. There is also a smaller zone shown at 1163 ish. Now volume-wise there is some under-development between these 2 zones. So long as the market doesn't spiral out of control, there is a chance that we will see some 'filling in' of this area. Although the market may seem really crazy right now, it's important to keep things in perspective, plan for alternative scenarios and monitor for changes in baseline view. So with that said, take a look at my chart and see what you think. Edit: I forgot to mention why I had pointed out the minor balance at 1163. That was the first point on the way down which we saw a significant reversal attempt from.
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It's happened like that a few times recently where we've had a deciding move at the death.
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Considerations for a Wannabe Trader...
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Beginners Forum
Simplicity is very important for most people. To have a fairly straight forward strategy makes it easier to stick to a plan, which is crucial. But I don't believe complexity on it's own is the real issue. Not having good underlying reasons for adding rules to your strategy and curve fitting your strategy are two of the other important considerations as to whether your strategy is too complex. -
:shrug: Straight over my head on the Marv Albert comment I'm afraid! I did just youtube it though! Lol. At the risk of sounding silly later, there are a few signs that we're starting to find and build value here. The VPOC from last week at 1142, today's VPOC currently 1140 and VWAP closing down at 1144.50. We'll have to watch it closely, but I think it's worthy of noting. What do you guys reckon?