TheNegotiator

Whether you like them or not, sometimes they are just there.

So yesterday's reaction at 1218.75 got me thinking. I tend to leave lines of importance marked on my chart even when I change the length of the long term profile. We hit a pretty important level from before which had been virtually ignored on the way down. I've added the two different profiles next to each other

More or less they are part of what I look at, but clearly I need a more detailed look into the action. Short timeframe and volume charts, plus DOM help with this. Market statistics and other products are other things I'll look at. I do look at the overnight profiles too but give the volume less weighting and I do leave it out of the long term profile. I will look at what happens though and particular price areas which we have been affected by.

Yesterday wasn't as active as recently and if you look at the range and the upward 'grind' you'll see this. At the close there was relatively high volume put in right at the top. This isn't necessarily prohibitive but also not great either. Currently we're sitting around the mentioned 1200 area. It will be important to note the way in which we open and if we break yesterday's low, can the profile and close gaps be closed.

H Xiao Si, Welcome to TL and good luck on your journey. If you have managed to do well with swing trading so far, are you planning to at least initially use this as the core of your trading methodology? I would say really all the things you mention like being patient and planning your trades well are really just the same in day trading. Maybe you just need to be more alert and flexible enough to move to plan B quickly in shorter timeframes. It really depends on how you trade though I guess.

Hi Josh, So I attached a crude chart. Bear in mind I don't trade crude, but this is what I would construct it off. I used RTH only. I do see your point about delineating a whole day or week etc. and I know people use it and like to do so. The reason I use a single day session is that it is the smallest "delineated" block which can define activity so to speak. What I am looking for is balance areas within trading activity. So actually you could just use all the data from exactly where balance begins to exactly where it ends. This is an example of a heuristic I suppose. When I am talking about balance and price closing on a day timeframe outside of a balance, I am generally looking for this as a confirmation to a change in behaviour of the market. It may have in fact already become imbalanced before it closes outside of the range and often this is the case. Responsive activity is less likely to appear in the face of strong and direct movement of the market. So the closing outside the balance range is more about confirming that opposing trade hasn't entered than anything else. As for closing prices only being relevant when discussing time, yes I'd agree totally. So it depends on the timeframe you trade as to what is relevant to you. I feel any 'natural' timeframe such as day/week/month/quarter/year is potentially relevant to anyone. Your example about the two profiles being merged misses out the how of the profile formation. In context, one profile being bottom heavy then continuing into a new profile which is top heavy is just showing imbalance-balance-imbalance(-balance) and by combining them it actually 'increases' the importance of the accepted area. Whatever you are looking at, you still need to view the distribution in context with how the auction has occurred. As for VWAP as a reference of value, I do also monitor it. The thing about the POC/VPOC is that it shows very clearly where most trade occurred at a given point in time. The significance clearly varies depending on the level of balance exhibited. So when a POC/VPOC of identified prior significance is approached, it can either still be viewed as significant and rejected, ignored as value is perceived to have changed much more, or it can again be accepted as current value. Either way it can be a useful point of reference to see how the auction is progressing. In all I would say that there are various ways in which people use profiling to help them understand the current market conditions. There are always going to be different things and ways one person looks at the same thing from another person. This is what I hope to achieve in this thread. Collective understanding of sorts.

Hi josh, I mean really just drawing a profile around short term ranges more than anything. Like I have been in my charts so far. I'll take a look later at drawing a chart up in IRT for you. Really though it's about looking for where profiles are nicely developing and when price closes outside of that balance.

Yeah of course it's difficult say for sure based on a day like today. Interesting that you look at weekly profiles. Do you think that you prefer this to looking at overlapping areas of balance?

No harm in posting a chart on oil if you think it's relevant.

Lol(seriously though, sorry). I know how frustrating these types are. My advice is always aim low with your expectations for any company etc you need to phone up- unless of course you're interested in buying something(which they don't have a monopoly on). Oh well, at least the markets aren't mind-numbingly dull today!!:crap:

I understand that members here at TL are primarily concerned with vendor transparency. However, the site is run based on sponsors/advertisers. This is precisely why some vendors don't want to directly identify themselves as such, because maybe they feel that they would be asked to become an official sponsor. To find a solution you must first identify the cause.

Come on. I don't think this is the place to have a heated debate about the underlying causes of what has happened. Remember we are talking about day trading the E-mini futures. It is interesting though. Maybe we could start a thread on "Current reasons for major swings in global markets".

If it were mandatory for them to have a vendor badge, wouldn't it be free advertising for them? You'll always get people who are naive enough just to sign up anyway. There has to be a balance somewhere in this. Maybe all vendors once identified should have all their posts and pm's monitored. It's certainly not straight forward. Even a separate vendor forum is kind of like free advertising. The reason these guys tend not to identify themselves is because in doing so they know they are soliciting which we don't want! I think the important thing is people keep them in check. Maybe what we need is a new vendor code of conduct to be written. If they are out of line, they can be referred to it. These are the current forum guidelines for anyone who hasn't seen them:- Forum Guidelines

I think genuinely knowledgeable educators have to give something to the community and let them judge whether they are any good. Like the markets themselves. What many of these guys should realise is that although they will be giving stuff away for free, if they demonstrate a level of competency to people, people will respect them for it.

The only way is up? Doesn't feel like big players are really pushing this. Just too small a range so far. Not to say that couldn't change later on. Gotta keep an eye on whether or not this turns into a grind up type of day.

First off, I hope everyone is fine given the weather over in the US! Friday did show some good strength with volume migrating upwards. Although there wasn't the strength to move to test 1190, we did see a close above the 1174.50 high volume. Given that we are already at 1190 o/n and may be around here on open, I'd like to see what happens in this upper distribution(1184-1207) and if there is any selling early on, can ES hold above Friday high/vpoc? O/n session is very light volume compared to recent activity and given the weather this is not surprising. There are plenty of reasons the markets could move today though so if you are in and trading, as is the routine currently- be on your toes! Here's the chart for anyone who is about:-

I tried to get this chart off quickly but we've moved while I was doing it!! Here's the chart anyway. Basically that high was top of yesterday afternoon move up at around 2:20pm EST. If it takes it out, I'd suggest that we'll attempt 1168,1171 and then 1177.50 and see if er can hold in that previous range above. If not, can we hold above 2-day low 1153??

Basically yeah. If they're big they'll more likely bias the index they're in. Also though it does vary. If this is your approach you really should be noting sector strength and weakness too. You could even spread the two off against each other if say techs are outperforming industrials or vice versa.

Plan for euphoric jubilation, plan for a mediocre statement, plan for extreme disappointment. Either way, my advice is don't try to read what Bernanke says, read how the market reacts to what he says! (and remember if we move either way drastically, there could be significant retracement before continuation)

Take a look at Welcome to Nanex.net and maybe http://www.nanex.net/FlashCrash/CCircleDay.html It really depends on how and what you trade whether or not it affects you.

Michigan btw is also thrown into the mix just before Bernanke is due to speak!

Jackson Hole and GDP, rumours, news and fun fun fun! Well maybe. Just realise that there is so much going on that you have to be on your toes and adapt your size accordingly. If you can't do this, maybe sit back and watch the show! Anyway, my chart for the day has a wider view just in case we really move. If not, then short term references I have already mentioned are still valid. Happy trading!

Biggy here today Tams Thurs 26 August 2011 10am ET Jackson Hole, Wyoming Import speech to see whether there'll be a QE3 or otherwise. VOLATILITY EXPECTED!!

Thanks clmacdougall! I feel it's good to have at least a list here of the vendors. I know people do feel strongly about vendors soliciting for business. The way many do go about their soliciting is not dissimilar from the way the profession most associated with soliciting go about it too. They know they're not meant to do it, they hang about waiting for the right type of person and then when they spot them, they turn on the charm. They use carefully pre-constructed enticing language with certain keywords which excite those who don't know better. In the end, that person is happy to pay for their services. But it won't make them rich in all likelihood. Also, these people tend to not want to pay for any advertising. Which ultimately is bad for TL. If you are a paying advertiser and see that people are getting away with this kind of thing, how's it gonna make you feel? So in all it's not fair, it's not clever, it's not right and it's not wanted. However, two points are important here. Firstly, vendors are always going to try to do it. Secondly, some actually do add some great and actually useful content. So if you are a vendor, ask yourself this. "Have I actually contributed anything which is specifically applicable for people in their endeavours as a trader?". Really think hard about this one and don't try to kid yourself - otherwise maybe Rande can help you with self delusion! On a last note I'll just add a genuine thank you to all the vendors who do contribute REAL VALUE to our community and to those who don't, b****r off!

Lots of stuff going on today so far!! Given all of the information on offer, at the moment it looks like ES is still being controlled by value around 1163. Any thoughts guys?