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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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If you are looking at the profile in context, it frequently reacts like this to high and low volume areas. Like any 'levels' though, which I'm sure you know from using vp on crude, they can hold or they can break. Either way they'll tell you something.
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We've not even traded a 10 point range so far today! There's a big gap below which will be looking pretty appealing the longer it goes without a push higher here. As in the chart, I have 1166 then 1157.50/58 and 1194.50/95 on the up side. For a move up I'd want to see it build above 81.50 and vice versa for a test down.
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Anyone sell the 4-day balance low at 1181.50? Worked pretty nicely by my reckoning...
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My references would broadly be yesterday's close/1157.50 and pre-Fed 4-day range 1181.50-1214.50 with points as in chart here from that 4-day balance:- http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/9773-day-trading-e-mini-futures-24.html#post128401
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Well my idea for yesterday worked pretty well. Test high vol from 2 days, then attempt to close gap. Here's the chart.
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Wow, Monday already! Hope everyone had a great weekend. Here's a quick chart before open. If the 1127 vol holds, we could be gunning to close the Thurs gap. Edit: the chart should read prominent 2-day vpoc.
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Well so far we're actually pretty balanced. You never know being Friday. Could be a late break, but at the moment we're not showing signs of an appetite for that.
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Okay so (right before open I know!!) here are some ideas for today. Could be quite volatile, so pick your trades, don't get sucked in, don't get married to the trade and manage your risk!
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Some ideas on crude.
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Can you post that definition?
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High volume areas are where previous value was being found with both buyers and sellers present. If the market say quickly approaches an area which is quite wide with many high volume prices, if it does stop, as there was less agreement before on value, there is no reason for me to think it will definitely stop on the price with slightly higher volume. There's good reason however for me to think it'll stop in that area. But I wouldn't be standing in the way of the price anyway. Gotta see what happens when it gets there.
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First chart I noticed it checked the lower distribution before it made new lows. Fading as it moved towards the 25s would've been a nice little trade but when it didn't sell off after failing on a 2nd attempt, I'd have been getting out. Interestingly though, the 25s vpoc wasn't produced by price acceptance as such. Looks to me like a battle which someone lost and probably had already covered when it sold off. The price acceptance was in the area you highlighted around 81.40 I'm guessing just looking at the chart and this is where it tested before moving down again. Just a note on entries around high volume, markets don't always turn on a dime from the peak price. Remember it's an area of acceptance. It also depends how it's approached and how fat(volume-wise)/narrow(range-wise) the area is.
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What a day yesterday! I hope everyone did okay. The astute will have noticed the 4 day balance was effectively a doji and this was not really that surprising given that the FOMC announcement was due. A break down from the balance was followed by an attempt to get back into it. However, when this failed the resulting move down was substantial although not surprising either. Anyway more overnight selling looks to me like we want to explore whether value is to be found at the lower high volume in the distribution. Any thoughts guys?
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New MarketDelta Trader Software
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Tools of the Trade
That's good that you're taking users' views into account. I didn't btw overlook the buy/sell market buttons. I just think having a buy and a sell column is a better solution to having a limit order column. In the heat of trade, having to move your mouse quickly and accurately is significantly harder considering the distance the buttons are away from market prices. Also, with the 2 columns, if you are just behind other orders coming in, it means you retain a limit order at that price rather than losing a tick extra with a market order. The current display at market is also very unclear as the colours are way too light to be distinctive. One other thing is that when you are cancelling an order, you have to hover over the order then move to the cancel button, rather than clicking once on the order itself. More time to order = slower execution. Anyway, thanks for the response and if I think of anymore issues or suggestions I'll post on your website feature requests page. -
Well yesterday fitted in pretty nicely with the scenario of further distribution within the 3 day range, with there being 2 distributions again. Both had the bulk of the volume done at the extremes(although the lower was at close) so business is being down at either end. This isn't unsur[rising given fomc is today imo. An interesting point is though that the 14.50 is now a double top. Of course, this could be blown out at any time given news etc so we'll have to see what plays out. Btw, when I say mirrored in the picture, I mean by the distribution boundaries not their shape.
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We can't always trade brilliantly, but we can strive to maintain control and a clear head no matter what the outcome of an individual trade.
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Yeah, it's sometimes the way that when you get annoyed with yourself after getting out of a good trade you end up trading pretty irrationally. A strong reaction after a turn in a well considered area is something I doubt you'd normally want to fade right? I think there's value sometimes in setting yourself a "lockdown" period after a trade doesn't go so well. If you do this kind of thing regularly, it's worth trying at least.
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Bad luck- just don't take it into your next trade. I wanted to show this example of how the middle low vol of a double distribution can be a good reference point- even if it did move back down subsequently, there was a 5/6 point move there.
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Looks to me if 86.15 holds, maybe a move towards y'day low could be in the offing?
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A few more thoughts with an updated font size/type! Anyone else have any views right now on any of the minis(or any other product for that matter)? Remember we're certainly not restricted to volume profiling on this thread if anyone else has some nice ideas.
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Lol yeah okay. I think I need to make it a little bigger too. Any parts which you didn't get that I can post again?
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Hi, I just received an email from MD and was quite pleased to see that they have launched a stand alone trading platform with integrated footprint! Excellent I thought to myself. The $.25 a side they are quoting seems a little steep, but I'm sure they're negotiable if you do enough volume right? The trial is in association with Daniels Trading who although I am aware of them, I have had zero experience of them. So I took a trial and just installed it. Honestly, it is just rubbish. Such a good idea but so poorly implemented. There are so few user preferences to change. You can't change the size of any text/DOM columns. There doesn't seem to be keyboard function trading! There is just one order column so you can't just hit out of a trade as it always wants to put limit orders(or stops) in. There is no volume profile option. It also looks to be that you can only currently use oec which is pointless for me. I think they may have just limited it to DT aswell to begin with so I'd have to switch broker. Nice. I truly hope that they fix some of these things and quick because as it stands this platform is useless. Not hard to fix these things but they are so important. My advice to MD and Trevor is to get a few hardcore scalpers to try it out and fix things based on what they ask for. Anyone else try it yet? Did I miss anything??
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Yesterday was a double distribution day. FOMC decision is tomorrow. Here are some early thoughts on the market.
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Although we really haven't seen movement yet of any real magnitude, these are a few thoughts so far this session.
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If a selloff gets going then you could see the market pulled toward high volume 1157.50 area with some potential for stop offs at areas I've marked on the chart. If we can move back up during this session, there is 1200 to take out then 12/13 area for me will be a key test. Greece chatter and FOMC Wednesday might make this a volatile session, but as always well have to see.