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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Wow, this market is trading really well! Not. My advice is this- if ever you start telling yourself that the market is just being stupid, take a step back.:crap:
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Okay so Slovakia is due to agree ESFS today and we are to get the Sept FOMC minutes later on in the session(really this time!!). Yesterday we moved nicely from high volum on Monday to test 1195(1194.75 was high) then it was just flat. Relatively tight range after a swing higher has me thinking whichever way this breaks could set the mood for the next few days. This could be dependent on what happens later though, even taking into account ES has moved higher in the European session. Some nice areas have been defined if you draw a profile around the 2 days so far this week. However, if the market starts breaking because of news, I wouldn't necessarily just buy at them.
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95% of Traders Lose: Is this Stat Misleading?
TheNegotiator replied to GCB's topic in Trading Psychology
The psychological battle with yourself is for the most part what it refers to. -
So what is the 10+ points based on then? VIX, ATR or some other volatility based reading? Yeah. Some I'm sure will still prefer tick. But it filters out some of the less relevant tick movement. Anyway, it's an option to be aware of going forward.
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It depends. It depends on the open type, profile shape, part of overall auction, how much of a move we've already had. Lots of things. Then of course what happens when it gets there. I'd certainly be cautious today for two reasons. 4 minor distrubutions isn't exactly a 'safe' structure and we've already hit a pretty decent target at 1194.75 and shown selling there. (Btw, just checking but you did know there is an S&P net tick for dtn if you're interested. JT6T.Z.)
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95% of Traders Lose: Is this Stat Misleading?
TheNegotiator replied to GCB's topic in Trading Psychology
zdo, I think what Tim was saying, unless I'm very much mistaken, is that because trading is supposedly 90% psychology, only 10% of people will make it past year 1. I am saying that I don't agree that the percentage of people making it past year 1 directly correlates to how pscychological trading is. It's like saying that 90% of becoming a pro athlete is psychological, so 10% of people who try will still be trying or have made it after year 1. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe I misinterpreted the point. -
Er, it looks as though there may be a mistake in a few places. Some have today some have tomorrow. Hmm. I think it's going to be Wednesday looking at it. (well spotted)
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Good morning everyone! I hope you had a great long weekend if you skived off for Columbus day! The day itself was good in some parts and mind numbing in others. As you can see we had a gap up and we closed at 1191.50, which is above the last swing high of 1190.00. Next up I am thinking is 95, mandatory 1200 then I can see us testing top 1224 and extending to test 1232. If we stay above 1180.50 (also 1174.75 on balance profile). There are no guarantees right now. We're waiting for FOMC minutes and news from Europe. I expect a move on or close to open, followed by some consolidation/value building, followed by a move after minutes and into close. That's my order of the day anyway.
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95% of Traders Lose: Is this Stat Misleading?
TheNegotiator replied to GCB's topic in Trading Psychology
Why should the estimate that trading is 90% psychological correlate in any way to the estimate that 10% of new traders make it past a year? Surely it's possible that less than 10% of people have the pyschological ability to make it past year 1, year 2, year 3 or whatever. -
I don't know cunparis. I have seen applications which do this in the past, but changes may now make this very difficult. I think it has just got to be an educated guess based on micro timestamp readings right? So if you have a really good data feed, the guess is more likely to be correct or closer to being correct.
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Flipping a coin can also be affective in trade selection Tim. I think that employing an idea like this needs work in creating some more detailed rules and testing of efficacy. Do you do this on a large gap open only? Does it have to involve a range gap too? What are the chances a gap will be closed? What if the first 5min bar drives 10 points? Do you take the trade but severly cut the position size or do you pass as you only expect a 20 point range in total? In short, what I am trying to illustrate as I am sure you well know, if you have an idea for a strategy, that doesn't make a plan. Anyone who has an idea but no plan is welcome to discuss it in this thread.
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Blowfish, If you could get a trade intensity indicator and a rebundling indicator programmed for Ninja, I think you would be wildly popular (if they were any good of course )! Maybe some members with a c# knowhow could get together to help you out on the project...
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True. Given Europe news flow recently though and the fact many won't be in, sometimes you'll get a few good chances on a day like today. (btw, like the new picture josh!)
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I don't know about anyone else, but I really don't like this kind of movement.
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Just a quick note on the chart. The lower line shown just above 1137.75 should be at 1137.25 only.
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Basically, Friday the ES traversed the high volume around 1157.50 failing either side at low volume areas. The range was also not huge. If we are to move higher with possible tests of 1224/32, I'd want to see development above the 1180.75 low volume and last swing high 1190 and pretty soon. Failure below 1157.50, 44.75 and 38.75 and we could be in for a further push lower.
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There are many roads which lead to dead ends or wild goose chases when a new trader starts to look for a methodology or style which suits them. Finding something which suits you is certainly important and more important is you find something which works. One way many attempt on their journey is to look for experts and to see what it is they are doing. There are two big problems with this though. Firstly and perhaps most obviously, the industry is awash with so called experts, many of whom have no real advantage in their methodology. Most importantly however, is in the way markets move, immitation in the long run rarely leads to understanding. Markets have so many nuances and rarely look the same. So even if you understand the direct theory of a technique, the broader understanding of the markets and the nuances which often require you to be nimble and adaptable in the moment, are likely to evade you. My suggestion to anyone new to trading is this. Study first how the markets move and work in terms of auction before you attempt to work out any way in which to profit from the movement. Then even if you do attempt to mimic another trader, you'll be better placed to understand if they really are good or not and you'll fast learn why the method works and when it doesn't.
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[volume] Delta Volume in Intraday Trading
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
The thread on structural reference got me thinking about delta again and some of the ways in which I use it and others use it. At important structural reference points, imo delta readings have more significance, large or small. So does anyone use any particular tools or indicators to filter out or highlight delta around either automatic or user defined prices? It's certainly not an essential thing and simple price alerts can be set up. -
The Importance of Structural Reference.
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
Steve, I wasn't talking about context. Of course context is important and imo should be understood to some extent at the very least. I am talking about the actual structure of price given reactions to certain events or long term trading activity or like I mentioned in the post 1, the initial balance which for many lays the structural foundations for market movements each day. The context of the market relative to these references is important subsequently. Anyway, here's a chart example of the nfp move friday pre-open. -
The Importance of Structural Reference.
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
Hi mitsubishi, No there are no missing "boxes". In fact there are no boxes at all. The lines are the initial balance lines from the first 60mins of each session. Just the high and the low. They are stepped to link to each other which may have misled you slightly. -
The Importance of Structural Reference.
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
I don't use them to structure the market, I look for important moves or balances and reference in fibonacci levels to see if they lock in with my volume profiles. I also use the extensions as a reference of strength on breaking the initial balance. I'd just say that whilst fibonnaci levels can be great, I wouldn't use them on their own necessarily. -
Nothing has changed today. My upper target would be around the 1180.75 after ES closed right on the money at 1158 yesterday closing the gap from 9/29 in the process. The NFP release pushed the market away from the 1157.50 but it remains to be seen whether there'll be enough strength to break away from it's control.
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Yes, but you still need to release a version with a better and more customisable DOM window!!!
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Hi shooly, I wouldn't say it's impossible by any means on a $3k account. Very hard but not impossible. You have to have a strong work ethic and focus, superb discipline and realistic expectations of how well you might do and the time scale for building your account capital. Above all you need a bit of luck. Plenty of things can happen to screw you up and if your capital is low, it could wipe the account out. Don't start throwing on more size. That's frustration talking and if you are in that mode you will be bound to lose money. One point that you should take heart from though is that if you are treading water trading a 1 lot over the last few months, you've actually done exceptionally well. The conditions currently are pretty wild at times. I reckon you probably are doing okay before commissions are factored in right? If you really think you want to carry on trading live right now, which I am by no means suggesting or not, maybe consider your trade selection more carefully. What I mean by this is if something looks like it might give you an entry, don't just blindly trade it, look very carefully at what the market has done last and how your entry is looking on approach. If it doesn't look good, don't trade it. The best risk tool you have at your disposal is to choose not to trade.
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Good morning to everyone! Well the last couple of days have seen some interesting action haven't they?! But then again, we should really be getting used to this type of ridiculous behaviour by now. In my chart, you will see I have extended my blue balance profile. This is probably a little premature as there's no absolute certainty that the last three days will end up part of the balance but I wanted to illustrate stucture, so that is why I have changed it for now. I have put a micro view of the volume up from 9/22 more for today than anything else. I have also marked up some places for you to chew over pre-NFPs tomorrow, which I believe will be structurally important. Happy trading!!