TheNegotiator

You have to work out what the initial balance is trying to identify. The reason it is the first hour is that this is supposedly the amount of time most paper does its business in after open. But it is an approximation as Market Profile uses(generally) 30min periods. My contention is that otf activity can't always be characterised so simply nowadays. At the moment for example, I think with the uncertainty about, these guys often sit back for a while before showing their hand. Sometimes I think that much of the business is completed before the standard IB time has elapsed. So yes I think that there is scope for the 'initial balance' to be time independent. I think the NFP release btw, if you look at a eth chart, there was a high put in and selling seemed to be coming in. Then, considering the initial reaction, the fact that there just wasn't follow through was a good indication.

Guys, let's just keep it friendly please

So far it's yesterday's afternoon swing low at 1215.75 which has held us up.

Yesterday's rally didn't manage to test the 1232.00 upside target. It didn't even manage to penetrate Monday's Electronic high at 1230.75 with the high coming in at 1229.75. It even closed below the swing high of 1224.00 from 8/31. So it's my contention that there's a decent chance they'll be some more development in what would be currently a 5-day balance if we get below say 1217/18. In the chart I have drawn in both a 4 day 'confirmed' balance and the extended 5-day balance. You can see they are very similar. I drew in the red lines for comparison of the two. This might happen and it might not. Either way it is information about the market.

Okay well I'll comment on the post at the bottom. Tape reading by Linda Bradford Raschke. I added it in not so much because I think it was a highly detailed in-depth argument of a particular strategy(although if you read it carefully it is pretty useful) but because there are aspects of tape reading which some use which have changed. I actually think it's still more than possible to tape read as Linda describes it. It's just that you should be looking always for activity in respect to certain references. So if your references are wrong, you'll possibly find tape reading much harder. The one big thing at the cme that has changed, is the unbundling of big orders. Now in fairness, there were plenty of algorithms to break your big order down into small size prior to this change. Traders however who used to lean on the big prints coming through, struggle to do that. There is software out there to rebundle orders, but these are still going to only be guesses. The other point I'd like to make is about retail data feeds. These have improved drastically in some cases and not much in others. Say if you want to watch the action at a certain price in order to make a decision on whether or not to trade, you'd want a data feed which is fast and doesn't lag and is unfiltered so you do actually see all the orders. Some poor quality retail feeds just don't cut it if you want to get a sense of activity for tape reading.

I can now report back that after installing the latest non-.net version of Sierra with the latest version of Wine on Ubuntu 11.10 with no problems at all, it looks like it's going to run really well. I haven't subscribed at all yet so I'll either have to ask them nicely for another free trial () or take out a subscription to test in realtime. I'll report back again when I can as I've been looking for a package I can run on linux for a while now and Sierra looks like it fits the bill!

I think the IB still has a lot to offer. I couldn't recommend any mp room for you but take a look at this thread:- market profile trading room thread

Short but sweet today. Having switched the balance start to include the prior 3 days, an additional bit of info became obvious. On the 13th Oct, the balance VPOC flipped from 1137.25 to 1191.25.

Hi C4Warrior! Welcome to TL. Okay so let me give you a few of my thoughts on what you have said. 1 - Why Just try to ensure that when you are trading the focus is on trading well. Money follows trading well not those who are trying to make money. 2 - Commitment Great. Make sure you give yourself ample time to relax and recouperate. Trading can take an awful lot out of you, especially early on in your career. 3 - Timeframe/method I slightly disagree with tradewinds here. Price moves down are often fast and furious. I think you can do well by being good at trading bear markets. But maybe you have to start thinking whether you should have a broader product base for this. I'd agree with TW about not wanting to be just a bear market trader personally though. 5 - Money Management I was referring to the money management of your trade and your account. Essentially, risk. 6 - Product Doesn't sound like you're a fool. From the amount of time you spend reading by the sounds of it, trading stocks could be the way you succeed. However, an idea about what a particular stock might do is nothing without a thorough trading plan. 10 - Computer Overkill perhaps? Lol. Either way, if you are completely inept or just can't be bothered, you have to have a backup and a way to quickly get someone else to fix it. Make sure you can easily get hold of your broker by phone. 11 - Internet No idea really. If you have fibre you should be fine though. Check speedtest.net Overall be under no illusions I'd say. You'll likely go through ups and downs like most do, before you really get anywhere. So don't be too dishearted if the cash doesn't just roll in straight away. Be humble or the market will force you to be. Don't fight the market. Use TradersLab every day! Lol. Good luck.

Okay so I've compiled a short list of some of the big ones and a few smaller ones. Please, if I've missed anyone out let me know and don't take any offence! I'll add them on as we go. But take a look at some of the threads and badger the thread starters to see how they're doing and what's changed. Here's the list in no particular order:- Waveslider - Wolfe http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/2229-wolfe.html dbphoenix - Dbs Burrow Traders Laboratory Forums - Dbs Burrow hunter1 - way-trade-emini http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/4650-way-trade-emini.html Soultrader - how-i-use-pivot-point-clusters http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/55-how-i-use-pivot-point-clusters.html walterw - chimp-s-new-futures-scalps, walter-s-forex-trend-trades, chimp-s-forex-trades http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/2788-chimp-s-new-futures-scalps.html http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/2364-walter-s-forex-trend-trades.html http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/2698-chimp-s-forex-trades.html Dogpile - taylor-trading-technique http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/swing-trading-position-trading/2623-taylor-trading-technique.html Tams - proflogics-method http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/swing-trading-position-trading/5419-proflogics-method.html jperl - trading-market-statistics-i-volume-histogram http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-profile/1962-trading-market-statistics-i-volume-histogram.html (see http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-profile/4803-trading-market-statistics-links.html for all links) Tingull - volume-spread-analysis http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/volume-spread-analysis/1369-volume-spread-analysis-volume-spread-analysis.html Spydertrader - price-volume-relationship http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/6320-price-volume-relationship.html ant - market-profile-strategies http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-articles/373-market-profile-strategies.html Soultrader - advanced-pivot-point-trading http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-articles/351-advanced-pivot-point-trading.html Nial Fuller - forex-price-action-strategies http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-articles/4594-forex-price-action-strategies.html Soultrader - nyse-ticks-tick-strategies http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-articles/1075-nyse-ticks-tick-strategies.html Linda Bradford Raschke - tape-reading http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-articles/1026-tape-reading.html

Here at Traders Lab, we've had some great threads over the time since Soultrader founded the site. There have been some amazingly generous people with some superb knowledge(and of course some with slightly less:) ). I know there have been some pretty good threads more recently, but I'd like to take a look back at a few threads where people have discussed methods they use and ask them how they are getting on with them now. Markets have been quite interesting to say the least over the last few years and I for one would love to see how these methods have held up for them.

Indeed! Not that I primarily look for value area highs/lows but if they're in line with something else I'm looking at, it is a nice additional reinforcement.

Incidentally, does anyone want to take a guess at what the thin green line is 1 tick below the low volume 1203.00?

Well that was a nice turn from 1203.00 and move back up so far. On the first chart I posted the balance profile have the low volume price at 1203.75. Actually, if you add in the 3 days prior to the start of the balance(4/5/8 Aug), which absolutely you can, the price is bang on 1203.00. The reason I hadn't included them before is I prefer to start the profile from where the balance begins. But the market is saying otherwise right now and we must always listen to the market!! Here's the alternative profile:-

Well keep us all updated if you fancy a crack at it some time!

Hope everyone had a great weekend. After having tested higher overnight, we've retraced back into Friday's range. Bernanke is chatting tomorrow -"The Effects of the Great Recession on Central Bank Doctrine and Practice". This may or may not be market moving so we'll have to see. Friday gapped up but couldn't close the gap and pushed higher. My focus is likely to be on the gap and the 2 ditributions I have highlighted. This market is still news driven so things can change quickly.

It's definitely an interesting approach to trading. I know there are those whose's entire trading is based on trading the figures. However, I'd caution anyone who is interested in holding a position into a release or trading after it, by saying you need a solid plan for trading it and a fast connection with multiple news sources (as sometimes one wire will release marginally before another).

I think for many people Steve, holding a position into a big figure isn't going to be a strategy they want to consider. Whether or not you take a position before a release and if you carry it into or close out before the event, the positioning prior to an important release can paint an important picture for the overall auction and the RTH session coming up. So it's definitely worth people looking at what has happened pre-RTH open for the 7:30am CT releases.

We gapped higher. It looked positive but then the action suggested otherwise. But then there was no real push lower either. Balanced up here? Seems like someone is waiting for either something to come out or a better price before piling in.

zdo, Thanks! I can't say I have read those guys, but then I'm no economist. I do however, try to get a feel for the way we might move based on broader economic scope. I'm also always open to opinions and to listen/learn from others. MM, Lol. Too true on all accounts! I believe the market can help cure but it needs a little motivation. I think that's the view of big ben too, but he's gone a little trigger happy!

Anyone else think something's fishy right now? Seems to me that we might have had some more interest one way or another at these prices.

Yesterday afterall didn't really see any head way made on either side. Not to worry though. I did test down although it wasn't until overnight we saw a further decent move higher. Still Michigan to come, but things at the moment are looking promising for a test of upper targets, with the 1232 target a real possibility given recent ranges. Anyway, as always we'll read what does happen and trade off that. Good luck!

Well yesterday afternoon showed a reversal late on which, imo isn't great reading if you're a bull. However, this market get's up to some interesting tricks nowadays, so if it isn't working don't fight it. There are some nice targets short term from prior 2-day balance and the broader profile, with a few targets on the up side from yesterday's profile too. Got to monitor what IS happening during the day. Good luck!

Hi Trotta, The 95% rule you mention probably refers to the number of times at least one side is broken. If you look back, there are very few examples which both the IB high and low end up the high and low of the day. The smaller the range of the IB usually the more likely it is to break. Hope this helps.

Will stimulus packages being implemented the world over ever work and are they in so deep that they have to make it work? Central banks keep pumping money into the system and really we keep going nowhere. If you were trading and you were buying and buying a stock but it wasn't budging, what would you think might play out next? Well my guess is there might be a good deal of downside risk. If others were buying too, that'd only serve to amplify any break. I suspect that we are too dependent on big corporations for economic recovery and this is at the heart of the problem. But back to the 'solution'. I think a nice metaphor for the way we are right now is we're in a kind of "economic biostasis" if you will. As we become more dependent on the drugs(economic stimulus and government intervention) we become more susceptable to infection(economic shocks/extremes) when they're taken away. So the question is how and when will we be weaned? The original plan was for the economy to have begun to have picked up by now and to start to withdraw stimulus slowly. But the ecomony still isn't great is it? So it didn't work that well before so why not give some more drugs? What happens to an addict when they go cold turkey? I don't know what they're going to do, but my feeling is if they don't change their approach, the result in the end won't be pretty.