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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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What sort of issues? Without telling us your size, how many scales would you take on a winning trade?
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What would you say is your 'normal' stop size at the moment in ES Josh?
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Midpoint comes in at 4275 if we get there. Low vol and 2 swing extremities(9:51, 10:52/:55 EST). Also 1242.75 was the overnight high.
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Okay so it was at 1239.50! But there was plenty of stuff around there to take a long. Edit: sry forgot to say. Initial Balance is first 60mins of RTH. Open range is variable and based on the first buying then counter selling action(and vice versa). Need to look at a tick or a volume chart for it. I had 1235.00-1238.75(actually it's visible on the 1min chart above).
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If you look on the chart I posted earlier, 1250 is the base of a buying tail from the last balance area we saw here. Btw, last point is have you notice the grinding higher? No really counter moves of any size before now(even now really). So if that activity stops, it could be an selling sign for the moment. I'm waiting to see.
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I probably wouldn't be going long right now, these things being true. Also 1246.25 is the IB high. Quite a bit of volume accumulated near 1250 there so we may need to auction down to allow some rebalancing before we decide to push futher or not.
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I actually went long 1239.25(Low Vol/Mid/Open range high all clustered). The market is behaving a little oddly. Coming up against volume often sees a test in the opposite direction, but not right now. The size of the counter auctions have been small. We had an open-test-drive open type. But, we also stopped at 1250 area which I had as important.
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Just take a look where we opened - right on Friday's high.
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Above the high of Friday 1235.75 I would say we are out of balance and exploring price to find value. However, there's also a chance it's a range extension and so the first decent move down will be important as a test of this. Here's a chart for you to look over.
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First of all it depends on how you are trading as to what you might look for. As I see it, longer term players or otf trade on a much longer timeframe. As the volume profile itself is time independent, the only way of incorporating information which otf may be interested in is to look at a profile which includes data from a while ago. The information is useful to me in two respects. From an auction perspective and to see if the level may still act as s/r. The auction's strength can be better gauged imo using long term profiles. Long term profile levels which are clearly important which then hold based on present activity, are likely to be places of interest for otf. OTF moves the market. I think short term activity is important. For certain circumstances and for certain types of trade. In the example of the 1222's I may have taken the trade based on activity, but not on the profile you drew. There was a pause there on the way up, true. But it was really low volume and at a price which I wasn't interested in. Selling simply dried up rather than getting a 'kick' off a level of importance. Activity based trades I feel you need to be very good with your position sizing too. I've had many a trade where I've entered on activity, then it moves to a profile level before turning or breaking. If you don't adjust your size based on structure, you can end up feeling an awful lot of pain. Question. Was the short you mentioned in one of the pics, a gap close type trade? (also, we're really meant to use the TL servers to upload pics etc. please )
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Bob, I understand the reasoning why they joined. But if it came to a point where the Euro was absolutely tanking, they might stand a better chance on their own. Given those circumstances the outlook would be pretty bleak not just in Europe but on a global scale. I don't think for one minute that they'd leave unless things got so dire. But I also believe they'd be the first to jump IF things spiralled out of control. Greece will not be the proverbially straw to break the er, Euro's back. Italy and Spain however are a different kettle of fish. Question is as Steve suggested, can they put their houses in order before things go too far? -
Bob I've been thinking about the idea that the German economy would collapse if they left the Euro. The thing is, unless everything really starts going downhill, I doubt they will. But if it does, the Euro will likely collapse first anyway. After this they may end up collapsing anyway, but surely they have a better chance of survival on their own in these circumstances?
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I don't have my charts right now either. Maybe later. But from what I remember from my 7 day profile(and of course you don't have to agree), 1222 wasn't a well defined area. I don't think it was great on the balance profile either. It looks as though it may have been something to do with that bit of balance in the 2 hrs before open. Not sure though. However, what was interesting was that it was just under the IB low which there was a gap underneath and yet it didn't break. So on a basis of that, a look back up was on the cards. Incidentally I missed the high being the 'new' balance high which I used with the additional 3 days at the start. 1235.25 I believe and the high was 35.75. The question is what are you trying to achieve with the volume profile? What type of trades are you willing to take using long, medium and short term information? What type of trades are you willing to take off intraday generated information? I wouldn't say outright the trades I take because they depend a good deal on the type of day I think we have and the structure. Then it depends on activity at the point of attack. But if you listen carefully you will notice I am giving you good hints as to the sorts of trades I am taking at any given point in the overall auction. A question I'd like to ask you is are you trading live and what size are you trading?(live or sim). It's just that although if your account size is decent, trading live and learning/recalibrating isn't bad necessarily, I'd still suggest paring your size down to the minimum you need to be able to trade in the way you feel happy with. So if you take 10 scales, maybe trade 10 or even slightly less, but if you only take 3 scales, trade a 3 lot. Just a thought. I'm sure you're well aware of this, but if others see it, they may benefit.
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How well planned was the entry at 22? I know that sometimes if you just see a nice place to enter but haven't planned the trade, or at least don't have specific rules given entry criteria, you'll end up either running your losses and snatching your winners, or getting stopped out on most trades which are good for a small loss. You basically are just paying your broker. Plus the market can take two ticks before you've even seen it happen(on most retail feeds and/or internet connections). So you can't react. A tight stop like that virtually requires you to take only 2 ticks profit. Think about where you'd be wrong, then think about how much you could make and if you think there's a good chance of it coming off and the RR is good, go for it. I'm sure you know the good entries, but sometimes we all shoot ourselves in the foot. Trick is to not do it too often lol.
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Lol. Don't worry I have limited focus too! It's too much to trade multiple uncorrelated instruments effectively and at the same time. Unless of course they're all in step with say the dollar. How's the ES been treating you?
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By the way Josh, I meant to ask you if you were trading oil at all when the Gaddafi news broke?
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Bob, I phrased the additional option as such because I didn't think you could mean that the German economy would "colapse" if they left the Euro. It's my opinion that real "intellectuals" draw from all sources good or bad. Debate drives intrigue which in turn brings new ideas to the table, intentionally or not. Us blokes don't really drink white wine in Britain, Bob. Maybe the quality we get isn't very good. :shrug: I'm sure it's much better in South Africa. Steve a point I'd make about Italy in particular is that they have been running on such high debt to gdp ratios for years that the measures which they can bring in just may not be enough if the yields are heavily squeezed. It just seems a little bit too systematic in the way it's one country after the other. Call me cynical.
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Fair enough. Added that in as a fourth option for you Bob!
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The whole idea being touted about as the Euro becoming the world's new reserve currency seems a distant memory now. Ireland seemed to have fixed it's problems, Portugal again wasn't great but overall Greece has so far been the major problem. However, it's Italy and Spain that are the major concern. If the spread between their debt and the German benchmark widens, they'll just not be able to afford to pay for much. That ain't exactly a positive scenario for the Euro in my mind. Now I’m no economist, but I think that the Germans would probably be relatively happy with a slightly weaker currency based on their strong manufacturing industry. Cheaper goods for foreigners = more exports right? But a currency which is potentially going to take a nosedive? An unstable and dropping currency is certainly not going to be that beneficial for a country like Germany. For example, higher resource prices coming from outside the Eurozone are a big factor. The Swiss Franc is now many investors’ benchmark, although with them pegging the currency to the Euro, which could also prove a problematic stance down the line. So what of the rumour which was about suggesting there were discussions and even a plan to reinstate the Deutschemark if the Euro turns sour? Well you’ve gotta believe the Germans aren’t happy with the current situation. But what would they stand to gain? Well they would hope to gain stability and I’m guessing the flexibility to allow Greece to default. But would it matter if the Euro without Germany was in turmoil anyway? Whatever the official line is currently I think it has been at the very least thoroughly discussed. So what do you guys reckon? Any economists and/or fx traders can wade in.
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Wow, Friday already! I hope everyone did well this week. I think the key was to spot early that we were balancing. EU fun over the weekend and options expiry could make today interesting, which is why I've added some higher targets if there is a break. Of course it could just end up that the trading is much the same as the rest of the week. Good luck!
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Well I hope people did well yesterday. Following on from the charts I'd posted already, trading was fairly simple on this occasion. The red balance profile is 10/12-10/19 inclusive.
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A nice little chart to demonstrate what has happened so far today.
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Yeah I agree. But I'm trying to focus on the actual balance here. If you look, that 1190 area is on the profile anyway, but quite clear on the balance profile as it's the balance vpoc(1190.75)
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Well I just did a chart in reference to the current balance again, which may in auction terms proove to have significance.
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The Importance of Structural Reference.
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
There's another point in there steve. The counter-move although relatively weak compared to the move up, was trending down. If a move like that is to continue, any move back should be consolidation or a pause, not a downtrend. The windfall analogy is definitely right especially on a release which personally I didn't think was mind-blowing(esp given the primary concerns were elsewhere at the time). Failure to follow through and failure to entice buyers back in with lower prices meant these ultra short term players (and maybe those who felt like it was a good opportunity to adjust their positions) needed to exit. I've tried to show on the chart that how I was viewing it at the time.