Buk

I'd be a happier bunny if it would pop it's head thru this irksome 9435 lid.........

ditto........that's a cool trade there torero!!.........think I might just switch trade camps & haul my ass across to the sunny shores of Spain!!!! couple of upside confluences to aim for should the flows be kind to the Cable Bulls today.....

I hear ya............ couple charts highlighting Anna's above comments..........we're at a bit of a fulcrum around this current level.......... $ Bulls looking to reinforce this lower top above the aforementioned fib-pivot resistance zone, which is bound to house trailing stops from the recent leg up on the buck.......Bears seeking some lift above the 61.8% support line & double daily bar rejection........... Tokyo is back in full flow tonite after their holiday nap, & we have to wait until Wednesday for the main Data focus of the week, starting with the Stateside Trade Balance numbers........... think I'll play this from the intraday slant until we get a confirmation of who holds the aces at this level.....see what Tokyo can do with it into the London Open intraday chart........... daily frame................

watched events earlier as London kicked in, but nothing setting up so got on with other tasks.....came back 30mins ago to find price had bounced off one of our favored triggers......... the early Tokyo activity ambled down to sniff Fridays low zone before kicking up & spent the best part of today bobbing around the main pivot.......to be honest, I expected price to merely shuffle around aimlessly today digesting (consolidating) the NFP data.......ah well, never mind....plent of juice left in the week ahead.......... hope everyone else's week has gotten off to a successful start! ps: Dr Who......any question or comments, please feel free to post away - if I or Anna (Texxas) can answer, we will............. 15m highlighting the pertinent markers.............. 5m focusing the usual entry/stop zone on these types of entry...........

I think maybe fatdog1 was referring more to the index ftrs regards those comments Anna??.....might be wrong but one or two of the issues affecting the FX markets will undoubtedly have a bearing on instruments across the board........ structural factors have definitely impacted FX prices over the past 2-3yrs, not surprising that ranges have contracted really....I guess the main culprits being interest yield spreads! certainly if the FX pairs/crosses suffer smaller carry trade margins, we'll experience heavier range bound markets & lower volatility....the graph below highlights that issue quite well......... marry that up with increased Central Bank exposure/jawboning every time their repective currencies skew outside acceptable boundaries, & include the uptick-popularity of FX via the retail sector on the back of aggressive marketing from the industry bods (shops etc), & you have yourself a heady cocktail......... any one of those major factors alone would be enough to slow the ship.....but all 3 on the crib sheet, little wonder the volatility has subsided..... you get a rush of fresh & constant inflow of $$'s into the mix & that will unviel a shoal of buyers & sellers at each important number on the charts.....in my book that equals less choppy markets & increased spike potential during below par liquidity periods.......... the only item which will keep these instruments bouyant over the medium term will be the focus of interest rate differentials.....or rather the shift in them as long as there's differing global economic positioning around inflation, growth expectations & internal deficit margins, then we ought to experience semi-decent periods of price wiggles........that will go some way to keeping the currency & bond kiddies on their toes!.....if that ever slows though, we're really in for some heavy snooze time!! I guess as more Central Banks look to diversify out of $$'s over the mid term, it might create a few more sparks across all the market candidates........ but I wouldn't hold your breath to a swift return to the heady heights of daily ranges extremes of a couple yrs back - not if the recent collection of figures below is anything to go by........ harks back to what we were saying in 4th quarter 05......'flexibility & reactive strategy implementation are the priorities'.......if not, your bottom line will reflect the unwillingness to accept that change in market behaviour!

careful James!!......I'll wave me "doji stick" atcha & render your next few trades impotent seriously though, folks will tend to develop & progress if they're fortunate enough to find one or two templates which fit not only their personal 'comfort zone' but also harmonize with the markets they intend trading......... there are many ways to skin the market cat, the hardest part is finding the implement in which to attempt to skin it........ the most important factor when getting to work on that implement (strategy combo), is to devise it around the safety net of RISK management........too often folks focus on "how much can they make or win" from their strategies or systems, instead of concentrating their priorities on protecting the capital/trade executions thru sound risk & money management....... you can engineer a fantastic win/loss ratio strategy & test it to the hilt etc........but if the basic risk structure is weak & the sizing/management is suspect, you're pissing against the wind..........

I think any trade candidate hauling decent liquidity behind it will react to, & offer good opportunities at the major round numbers James.....the consistant bar prints mirroring the activity which occurs around these levels render them worthy of special note.......I'm not at all surprised you index guy's find them attractive too! yes, I like to scale out wherever possible.....the prime objective for most of my initial (intraday) entries is to test the intent of price activity away from a key level....especially if that level offers the prospect of re-engaging a dominant trend after a possible? pullback shunt........ I like to reduce risk on a potential swing entry as quickly as possible to either give my stops breathing room (if I've had reason to tuck them farther away than normal), or cover costs.......it means I can then leave my stops where they are to properly test the genuine intent without being lulled into trailing too close on the first shunt away from a level.......... once/if price tells me it's looking to trot, I'll begin trailing to an appropriate hourly or 240m line. I certainly use the Fibs/pivots as guides for profit pares & compounding opportunities for sure........obviously, as with entries, they're merely guides.....it's the candle prints & where they form which carry the prime importance........I love doji's which form around hourly+ pivot-fib lines!!.....particularly if they print at a new high/low.....fantastic 'fade' opp's, if only for a quick 20-50 pips should price then further retreat to our favored 78.6 & show the slightest signs of weakness, we're all over it like a rash LOL......... regards your final question: hmmmm.......I can only speak for what I do, and I'm a big fan of STRUCTURE....especially if that structure is proven to work - for me, Fibs/pivots in conjunction with common bar formations work!....so yeah, I'm happy enough to enter/pare out/exit based on my entry criteria.........

and the 60m frames at same levels............

I'll try explaining by hauling up a few examples James....... I use timeframe blending (4hr-1hr-15m) as my core method of determining the current state of play......the 4hr is my base template which houses the relevant & pertinent info from the larger timeframe charts (main pivots/fibs etc)........ the 60 & 15m frames are my zoomed in observation references for triggering & managing the initial entry & eventual exit.......... I was reared on simple bar & pressure observation.....the ROUND NUMBERS are key (for me) in highlighting potential exhaustion-reversal behaviour in confluence with the BAR information they display at these levels........ rather archaic I know, given all the new age bells & whistles available nowadays - but I'm a firm believer in the old adage: "if it aint broke, don't meddle with it".......I might have to spend an hour or two more than other folks at the workstation, but there ya go....life's a bitch this methodology combined with my stake-sizing & trade management structure (scaling out-compounding back), fits well with the psychology & behaviour traits of the instruments I trade......... I suffer a bit when price flips from trend to consol/range behaviour (on these timeframes), mainly attempting to climb aboard the b/o etc.....but once it makes a run for it & I can get aboard at a fair value entry, it generally plays out ok........... i'll stick up the 4hr examples first (taken from back in Sept/Oct) to give you an idea.......& the 60m observations on the next post.......... hope they help shine some light on my train of thought

markets are traded via an assortment of differing agenda’s…..long, medium & short term players contribute to the daily flow & liquidity which ensures opportunities present themselves according to the structures & objectives of said participants……… it’s often daunting for newcomers to the markets to determine which style or timeframe best suits their execution mode…..however, the vast majority of non-commercial traders tend to veer towards a dominant technical bias……. whether one is looking to clip regular 20-50 pip raids from the ball park, or gun for the larger 200-300 pip moves, a basic awareness of the generic landscape is often helpful to best plan a suitable course of action – or to put it simply: construct their trade plan! I like to look at the trading map from a top-down approach…my main point of reference revolves around the use of Fibs, Pivots & perceived zones of longer range s&r levels…..I say perceived, because the market doesn’t really give a jot what I see…...these common area’s of reference are observed by a good majority of participants from each camp, therefore they’re the best I’ve got in order to lay down a base platform for the forthcoming session… whatever you use (providing it offers you an edge), it’s important to remain faithful to the plan-rules…that way, as conditions change & the market evolves from trend to range etc, you’re better prepared to alter course without too much stress or financial loss………. i’ve found thru experience, the larger range technical zones tend to react more favorably as price approaches..…Whether I’m observing a 5 or 30m frame for a particular entry or trigger, the journey & reaction of the larger monthly/weekly/daily bars have a greater affect on the impending direction than their smaller timeframe cousins………… therefore, I like to see where & when these longer range lines are coming into focus……we know that the big round numbers (00’s & to a lesser degree the 50’s) & the accompanying levels slightly beyond them (stop & profit zones) carry heavy psychological significance, for a multitude of reasons……..we also know that once a confluence of events surround these levels (be they Fib clusters/pivot lines/wave axis/channel boundaries etc) the emotive attraction is intensified……. these key levels form the backbone of my analysis & execution planning…….of course, nothing works all the time & I’m sure as hell not going to beat the market to the plate on every occasion – but my priority is to seek value & reduce risk as often as possible……… time has also taught me that whatever technical model you choose to adopt, the emphasis on simplicity & common sense will bear the ripest fruits……..complication leads to indecision…..or paralysis!! once the larger levels are constructed & mapped, they offer a guide to the smaller trigger frames…..and my favored patterns & price bar formations can then be observed as price gravitates to these key lines………. it’s by no means a guaranteed atm receipt, but it affords me a workable template from which to construct my core strategies, dependant upon the current price environment (trend/range/consolidation)……………. to that end, Fridays closing level has earmarked a couple of lower & higher zones of interest which I’ll certainly be alert to observing as price decides where it’s intentions lie………. apologies for the ‘war & peace’ commentary……..I promise, future posts will be infinitely more succinct!! the 60m focuses Cable upside resistance zones, which show the relevant markers from the bigger frames.......I'll attach the intraday pivots to the 60m & sub hourlies to guage price bar formations as they come into view around the important s&r levels...........

Hi James, thanks for the welcome! there sure is a good mix of info on here.....nice to see such a varied & interesting selection of sensible technical templates!!...... quite often you visit a forum & very quickly it's apparent that most of the material is either snake-oil fodder or ridiculous & unworkable tat...... not so this place........looks like you have some very good material on here which I'm sure will prove extremely beneficial to a lot of folks!

I didn't set them up Jack.....the workstations were configered when we got back to UK after the holidays.........I'll ask Jimmy when he's back next week..... far as I know they're GMT....Kira's nodding her head confidently....... I prefer NetDania personally, but there ya go........

hey Jack...... yeah, they're MT charts.....good to see the year has kicked off on a positive footing for you! we haven't really gotten going as yet on the majors....Anna's nursed positions on a couple of the crosses from the 4th quarter overlap, but we prefer to allow the $ pairings to flail around a bit into the 1st week of the new year until the volumes begin to find their levels......... it's fairly light on key data next week, so I guess much of the early activity will be purely tech based......as you say, one or two each-way levels coming into focus as we kick into week 2......... the weeks action has stayed quite loyal to most of our tech based zones, which is good to see.....I'm looking forward to rolling the sleeves up!!

shame about the time of day & circumstances etc......but for that, there's the lower risk ace in the pack!

cheers Tingull

I don't play the NFP's at all torero....Anna-Maria and a couple of the others will occasionally take it on after the spikes have subsided......we certainly don't set orders up leading into the number....most of the wholesale suppliers simply wouldn't fill at the price, they're more concerned with protecting levels/staying out of trouble etc.......... I can't comment on the general retail fraternity, but I'd imagine skewed fills, gapping & freezes would eliminate most trade requests? the actual print is simply way too volatile to risk our money.....that silly game is best left to those with a 'punting mentality' in my view........ usually 10mins or so after the spikes & hoo haa have settled down they'll be an opportunity to engage if you so wish, but to be honest we rarely partake..... but sure, shorting thru 9300 on that huffing & puffing to take 9325 would have gotten you in ok........

yeah, the Bulls have the park for now.....approaching a confluence on the daily lower down the ladder....might be a better zone to stick a finger in the air, see how the land lies next week........

okey dokey.......good a place as any I guess.....you need 9310 at your back really, but long as your fingers primed on the exit, shouldn't do too much harm to test it here!

looks that way yeah..........see where it settles when the gunslingers run out of bullets! next batch @ 9220 then now!

hey there torero!!.......... yeah, she has "her moments" LOL......... thanks for the welcome, look forward to swapping a few posts on here! good luck with your journey

unless we (the U.S) perform way above expectations & the data begins to turn a hardy shade of green, I wouldn't bank on any rate hikes in the States any time soon Jack. In fact, I'd hedge my bets to the opposite camp in current conditions.... The UK economy is chugging along handsomely, and in some (Bank talking heads) quarters, warrants at least 2 more hikes to temper Browns inflation barometer for this year.......... Germany, the EU's main yardstick, is within a hairs breath of registering +2% inflation count with their introduction of a 3% internal price tax from Jan 2.......you can bet old Tricky Dicky (Trichet) will begin snorting & cussing & banging his rate gavel hard on the desk if their inflation numbers burn too brightly.......... talk of the Japs also murmering into the rates hike pot, will surely encourage their big dog (overseas) investors to begin buying back Yen etc etc etc....... doesn't really leave the Fed too much wiggle room huh?.........so, all that to-ing & fro-ing & we witness the buck on a trot of late?!!..........one or two savvy long term swingers will be looking at these current Cable/Euro levels & licking their rouge red lips I shouldn't wonder :p sure, the fundamentals often take a while to register, & emotive exuberance generally over-rides the "obvious".......but sooner or later, unless the picture begins to change clearly in favor of Stateside positives, those big wooly snarling $ Bears will begin to claw again!!.............

I'll tag my intro onto this fine thread if no-one else minds?!.........my sibling, Anna-Maria (Texxas) recommended I take a peep inside, so take a peep I shall.......... one or two familiar faces on the Forex threads (Cowpip, pipmonster) - how you doin fella's?.....and some pretty interesting topics across the board!! look forward to reading the threads & getting involved, time permitting!..... Nice forum James, good stuff.........

I'll have my workstation back now you've finished fiddling with it.....where have me wkly-mthly pivots disappeared to?!? that daily fibo @ 1.9340 has shouldered it this morning, but the Bulls won't require too much encouragement to gun for 61.8 @ 9220 if the payrolls put in a decent showing......... bout time they ran it up to blow off the dollar short build up......this current level, the mid daily fib, is quite a busy fulcrum zone.....we have some weekly s&r hiding @ 9270-90 & they'll try run it back up there if the wind blows South into early next week.......... otherwise, back thru todays pivot @ 9457 see's us inside the 4hr range again & it's back to 'who shoves hardest'...............