Buk

to be honest torero, once you get into the habit of looking at info (whatever it might be), you begin to instinctively plan/prepare for certain events unfolding as price threatens a key level?........ the data (C.O.T or whatever), merely confirms whats panning out...... it's the price bars & formations they display on the main working templates which over-ride everything, in my view.....but as an example, in a strong upkick, as price approaches a big Round Number for instance, we'll have a damned good idea that the smart money will be looking to cover (pare off % stakes) sit back & wait for the reaction............the dumb money will try either continuation attempts (getting tangled up in the pullback) and/or plough in & attempt to sell it hard, again getting caught in traps assuming a 'hard sell-off' is nigh.......... the C.O.T will offer clues as to how much paring off (open interest etc) is being done, & the $ indx will confirm whether the price bias is "across the board" or instrument specific............ nothing is nailed on or guaranteed, but these differing observation tools sometimes help to decide whether to pare off/exit or sit tight & wait...... I don't look at them in any particular order, simply as a collective information guage.............

Jack....... yeah, we keep tabs on the $ indx most day's & like to see what's happening with regards the C.O.T in relation to open interest & long/short bias........ it/they're only a guide (like any other form of analysis), given the C.O.T data is derived from the futures contracts....but it offers a heads up to extreme positioning on & around key levels coming into focus......... no, the examples aren't a Tradestation exclusive, the guys observe them via the CME site.......... try this link............. Free COT Charts I look at both the weekly & daily info, including the detailed report for the specific number breakdown to keep an eye on the % differences......... example below.......... the data is compiled each Tuesday & printed on a Friday...............

yeah, it's been a moody critter all morning really......the "scalping queen" is having another pop at it after this data print, clipping it via the 1/5m thru 9505....it's having a scuffle with the R1 up here, so I doubt she'll give it too much rope....... just one of those 'pick at it days' by the looks........... well done on your trade today, you got another very good r/r run!!

no different in the forex either torero..........Fridays recorded the smallest trading range on Cable, Euro & Swiss last year & during 2005 (excl the 1st Fridays NFP print)...... Tuesday & Wednesday recorded the highest range, with Monday & Thursday running almost equal, approx 20% tighter than Tues/Wed........

something which might assist you in preparing for potential (larger) swing opportunities torero (& others), are the C.O.T reports……… we use them as a complimentary price aid assistor when spotting extended or overbought/oversold levels………for the majors, I observe 2 charts…..the $ index & the specific pair I’m interested in, as prices shift to, & begin stalling around key levels (round numbers/prev highs-lows or lower top/higher bottom extensions)…… there are 3 colored lines on these charts & for those not familiar with this information: the blue line represents the large commercials – I’m not particularly concerned with their positioning, as much of their activity in the currency environment revolves primarily around hedging…..they’re always at opposite extremes to the larger non-commercial & retail community….. the red line highlights the smaller retail community, who are generally always out of kilter & sat to the wrong side of the larger based swing moves, due in part to their historically under capitalized account holdings and/or their preference for trading smaller (intraday) positions……… the line of interest which I pay close att’n to is the green line…..this sector of the currency market consists of mid to large CTA’s, mid sized hedge funds & well capitalized firms……… essentially, the main points of focus are similar to the common themes when studying the individual FX pairs technical landscape…..I’m seeking bar formations, over-extension, topping/bottoming, higher lows/lower highs etc…… the $ index is representative of the major trading nations within the FX community, therefore to guage a sentiment indication, I want to see that the index is playing ball with it's respective partners...... I can then drill into either the Euro (which is it’s major liquidity contributor), the Swiss Franc or Cable (my favored candidates from the majors) to spot potential set-ups via our swing strat………. It’s then merely a case of waiting for our normal triggers around value area’s which marry up with the associated risk, to execute………… used in harmony with the generic fundamentals, they can help quantify possible positioning & assist with planning an effective entry & sensible risk zone……….. I’ll use a recent example of this structure in relation to the Swiss……at both long & short zones of interest from last quarter…………. leading into 4th quarter we can see the $ indx was nudging a key double top zone & the larger non-comms were positioned strongly to the short side of francs on the franc COT chart (2nd example)…… If we look at the specific daily chart on the franc around early Oct, we see price was beginning to print neutral clusters around the key 1.27 round number (better evidenced via the 240/60m frames at that period)……price also printed a 1-2-3 reversal closing with a spinning top neutral print……. again, as the franc began displaying signs of exhaustion during early Dec (both on the COT & it’s specific daily charts), at it’s yearly resistance level, the $ indx broke a run of negative bar prints & started to even out……….. the franc COT chart also printed a pin-bar at it’s highs – a very powerful reversal signal…….looking at the daily chart, confirmed the hesitancy & collection of strong neutral-reversal bars again at a key Round Number (1.19) by drilling down to your 4hr-1hr combo’s you could witness similar behaviour…….

you're the man!!!!!!........excellent spot (excuse the pun)...... you watchin sister girl?????

yeah, Anna certainly keeps her trigger finger loose on a week to week basis.....obviously it depends on the current conditions etc, but there are usually a good selection of opportunities across a small selection of pairs during a typical weeks activity........ to be honest torero, I'm not the best rapid, micro-timeframe trader out there, in fact I'm pretty crap if truth be told......which is why I leave most of that activity to Anna and a couple of the other guys.........but for those who are capable & efficient, there's some good wages to be earned on these instruments just cruising back & forth thru the sub hourly wiggles!

I wouldn't say that........you planned your trades according to your own personal preferences & tolerance? the market did it's work & you got paid for doing yours!.......... you can only plan, execute & manage a trade with the resources & information available to you.......it's a long haul endeavor - sometimes that planning will really amplify a move & you'll catch it.....other times circumstances dictate you'll get unseated prior to the "big" move...... it all balances out over time in my view torero...........

so........they digested their donuts, emptied their extra strong caffiene mugs, waited for price to show it's intent, then calmly stepped in......... top-down approach (on our charts anyway, your may be different) saw price nudging a weekly Fib from the larger levels........... the 30min printed an inside bar doji above the R3, with a resulting bearish bar bias............ the 15m confirmed the higher frame doji with lower top exhaustive-neutral bar prints........... and the 5m focused the (likely) trigger a pip or two below the breakout of the contracting pattern........secondary confirmation available a pip or two below the pivot if preferred (with confirmatory behaviour via the 1m candles)........ so, how do you trade it & where do you plan for exits??..... well......again, that would depend upon your own personal price aid kit-bag & your objectives for the trade.........the entry offered low risk with decent profit returns given price has already travelled twice it's normal daily range on an over-extended data shunt.......waiting until price "showed it's hand" before commiting still allowed low risk stop placement in case it turned tail & snatched you out? 1st (scale out-profit book zone) target could be the R2 pivot zone below @ 9460?.........then a case of moving stops down to your entry for a b/e risk? if you're only intending playing it as an intraday shuffle, then as it continues down, merely trail it to next pivot zone, any Fibs on the smaller frames (from recent low to current high) or any small frame consolidation stalls on it's way South? doesn't matter really, only that you allow price to tell you when it's done & dusted according to your rules/strat guidelines.

much obliged!.......always interesting to see how traders from different camps assess & process information....... appears you guys have your fingers glued well & truly to that market pulse! good to see........ good trading to you.........

some nice, strightforward analysis there Tingull, even a ftrs index numpty like me could make some sense of your lowdown on the scenario!! could I ask a question please regards your chart post?........ what's the relevance of the 'extreme' indicator at the bottom there?...... I'm guessing it affords you some degree of strength/weakness bias based on your tick reading?.......do you work this indicator in alongside the profile meter also? go easy on this brain Tingull, it's an overcooked mass of fragile currency goo........ :rolleyes:

we've travelled +2c from the Tokyo low print to current highs, with NY just about to stretch it's arms & decide what it wants to do with the mornings events.......... it's currently sniffing around at the R3 pivot & wondering how much gas it's got left in the tank............ hmmmm, time to let it sweat a while maybe!! see what occurs after the NY kids have slurped their donuts & coffee........

aaah well, back to the drawing board LOL......... and back to the 240min for some guidance............ same process when starting out again from scratch.......what is price doing now & what are the options based on the current scenario?! re-assess the conditions, pick the strat & try get a leg onto the next potential move away!

firstly, let me try illustrate in as near a 'real time' scenario as possible, to give you a flavor of what I'm currently looking at??.......... what I'm seeking is confirmation I want the chart to tell me I'm wrong & should be staring in the opposite direction! so, sticking to my strat guide & observations from my template frame, I have the mid-term view of current positioning.......we've broken a strung out range & are attempting an each-way battle to either re-engage the range for another attempt to gain lost ground...........or a continued bearish decline toward the next major technical zone.........straightforward from this timeframe perspective? then drilling down into the 60m frame, I clearly see my markers from the recent H-L activity & I'm again looking for weakness in line with current momentum...........OR signals to the contrary that I ought to looking for a reverse & strength back into the range.........my chosen price aids (Fibs-Pivots) are the tools, alongside the price bars, which will prove me right or wrong........I'm still seeking confirmation that we're changing course from bear to bull?? I then drill further down to my smaller frame buddies to see what's occuring at that level...........are there any common themes there which we like to trigger??..........are we butting any major s&r or attacking a prev top line from the higher timeframes??............is price pulling back in an attempt to strike North thru the next technical level of resistance..........or is it weakening further as the demand dies & supply kicks in??....what shape are the price bars taking on at this juncture?? is it worth "shorting here" (in line with the prev flow) & absorbing small risk to test the intent.........or should we wait a while & see if the $ bulls can hold this line...........a break up here negates the short-term bearish flow....and renders my "selling the rallies" stance impotent........... therefore, we then require to slip back to a shorter model, intraday stance to again negotiate the "range trading conditions"........... time & patience..........we've already gotten a bloody nose from trying to short it farther back.....so, I want to ensure this recent price activity isn't a sustained move on the part of the $ Bears to kick this North again.......... my hunch (& Anna's trigger button) is for the "short" at a better value area, in line with the higher timeframe flow to give it another test of intent.......... I'm not particularly bothered whether I'm right or wrong to be honest (coz they'll be ample opportunity to grab the losses back later), only that I obtain decent risk in exchange for fair value................ the stops will reside at the TIMEFRAME OF ENTRY.......& once/if the move gets underway, the scenario will be adjudged accordingly & altered as required.............

well judging by the recent performance, you'd be better popping out to your local supermarket & engaing in conversation with the 1st old lady you come across.......... she'll have more of an idea than we do at present!!! but the tack we take regards running positions, always matures or morphs from an an intial intraday entry........ for that, I use the 4hr frame....that's my template!........I love bullish/bearish engulfing & doji-hammer formations....period! if we see a stall or consolidation occuring on or around a major Fib-pivot zone, & the 4hr-1hr is setting up at one of our favored candle formations, we'll drill into the 5/15m charts & look for a low risk entry.......... once we get positioned, we focus purely on the next stage tech levels in relation to the 4hr timeframe..........we'll scale out at our (yours will be different) usual reference points: next stage pivot/fib line, or a defined s&r zone on the hourly & keep remaining stops tucked back at entry to test whether the move is genuine or not......... 65% of the time, those remaining stakes/stops will get snatched somewhere between it's resting level & next days activity - that's simply the rub of the green with currencies............ once price continues in the original direction, we compound back (those stakes which we banked) on fresh intraday signals & trail remaining stakes to either an hourly or 4hrly bar of technical significance.......... on a decent move away from a technical turn, we'll achieve an avg 2.5 - 4c return from an approx .5c risk........... however, you have to get used to dropping a portion of your stake in return for testing the intent of price?!........it's a "trade-off" in seeking larger value.........

nailed that one (again) huh??......it's certainly favoring the shorter range signals for the time being.......... our mid-term outlook is getting trashed at the mo - time to skinny down to the smaller frames on this pair for the time being me thinks! appears Jan is showering you in a nice smelling scent of $$'s LOL........

yeah, they do their fair share of trending that's for sure!........don't get too loved up with Cable though there are a good few instruments out there which truck along handsomely!.....I know most of the examples hauled up on here carry a heavy Cable bias, & that's partly our fault - but it's not the be all & end all...... I don't think it would do any harm to expand the flavor of these weekly threads to incorporate "other" pairs??.......after all, technicals are technicals, whatever the picture......... sure, Cable/Euro & Swiss attract major participation, and account for a good lick of traffic during the London-New York crossover, but to neglect the other instruments isn't really doing justice to the currency canvas......... if you've got a workable & tight strategy template, you can very easily switch & swap between those displaying the more favorable set-up triggers

quite the contrary......in fact you look like you've got a handle on a good, solid method of playing these pairs by your chart & trade examples........ if it aint broke, don't fiddle with it!!!............ your style clearly suits your surroundings & you're obviously bringing skills from your index futures life onto the currency field?........

Lets just play this via the shorter intraday levels Anna.....it's not ready to step in on wider stops/step thru's as yet....way too jittery........ 30m - hourly reversals off the Fib-Pivot-bar signals.....wait till we get a better nod from the fundamental sway...........

you might want to "job" this back up??........that new stop level is the 23.6 of the larger swing (9750-9260)

yep.......fair play losses banked..... booted & suited for tomorra!!

it's remained inside the Tokyo range all day, printing approx 60% of it's avg daily range thus far.......as you say teroro, no real reason to do anything as yet - certainly no justifiable reason to sell it........yet! just a lazy, directionless session.......

I don't see any selling.....+ it hasn't closed below yesterdays low let alone the 23.6......... I'll meet you half-way.......a close below the 395 & it's re-assess time...... the p/b from the 445 confluence, albeit time consuming, is shallow....I'd rather not relinquish the weeny bit of value I've already got........ it still represents decent odds........

it's a higher risk option sure, but this still looks good for a ride to the next confluence zone @ 1.95 if it can hold this small floor support above the 23.6 (9375) just bloody annoying to have missed the optimum low risk entry down at that 78.6 thru 9305..........

good for you! wouldn't really want to see this nice little consolidation threaten much below y'days high (9403) to be honest......otherwise it could well accelerate & will offer support for the bearish lower high print potential.......... that 4hr neutral bar needs to be taken out to the topside leading into NY.....