Buk

hey Cary! price has worked off the longer frame pivots (monthly-weekly) pretty much all year on these bullish ascents & have signalled decent buy alerts in line with the common candle prints.......no real deviation from that during May either, having bounced again off a monthly S1 @ circa 9680 thru an inside 4h bar........ if you sling up a 100ma on the daily, your 'prime trend line' guage printed on your graphs won't be too far from that marker either! in fact it's been a keen buy guage marker for approx 15mths now........... first signs (for me) of a change of tack from buying dips will be price failing to gain a shoulder back thru that 100 avg marker........but then your 4hr will have offered one or two clues by then I shouldn't wonder! nice charts, & good to hear you're taking positive advantage of your analysis

ok, that's cool........looks like he adopts a long(er) range take on events, which sure sits with my preferred angle........ appreciate you taking the time to re-jig the thread options........

the hourly amplifies the potential headwind up beyond the weeks highs for Yen as it continues to tentatively build off the weekly S1 pivot 115 holding zone…….. a 38% level (117.65) from the recent lower top @ 121.60 is sandwiched by todays resistance pivots & that general area back to c117.10 will house each-way stops, further influencing Yens near term activity………… The Nikkei is certainly offering a lift to Yen Bulls this week, & no doubt speculators are keeping a close watch on stocks for some degree of risk guage before stepping up the size on currency bets……until today’s European rates statement & tomorrows jobs data out of the States is digested, I guess we can expect nervy each-way sparring……… All eyes on Trichet then today to see how hawkish those guy’s are going forward – that will offer a clue or two near term……….

sure, no problem James.........

"USD/JPY is firmer as traders continue to debate the recent need for unwinding of Yen carry trades. analysts remind suggesting that the past several days of JPY carry unwinds is being used by aggressive and professional traders to re-set their carry trades. Regardless of near-term liquidation pressures analysts remind that the fact is interest rate differentials between the JPY and other high-yielding currencies still make the carry attractive and the Japanese economy has a long way to go before the argument for a sustained rally in the JPY can be made. Analysts agree that a modest correction after a six-handle sell-off is a reasonable assumption but caution that close-in stops may not be enough to spark a serious rally. Traders remind that two-way action will likely be the case through the end of the week until US data is released on Friday morning". James?.....I guess The Lions threads don't accept reply/comments posts?! (closed thread)........anyway, some pretty good dialogue on there...... yeah, this correction from 2 yr Yen lows still has a way to go to begin unsettling the real carry beneficiaries for sure……it’s still 200 odd pips shy of 4th Q yen highs/3yr trendline, & that 38.2 Fib marks out a developed s&r zone too…….I guess we could yet witness a run to that line if we don’t see the months highs (118.80) first…………. That zone under 119, which houses the 100ma is likely to attract good 2 way activity on it’s next visit……… & wouldn’t be surprised to witness some range trading once this excitement dies down, at least until the rate diff numbers get re-calc’d on the next round of Cent Bank rate meetings ……certainly plenty of opportunities of late for all trading styles!! Buyers @ 115.50 sure got some value on any near term run back to that 118.80 line anyway! & are well placed to obtain a decent average in, should price re-threaten the weeks lows.......would be good to see the weekly bar close up around current levels to add a little zip to events.........

there's still a lot in the mix for this week Steve, but Euro hasn't really altered it's near term course as yet........ we'll get a better handle on events on this weeks closing bar....the only remaining (noteworthy) Eurozone data prints tomorrow/Friday with German PMI & Retail Sales......... the bullish top tier channel lines are shouldering it for now, but there are clear levels underneath to climb on if you're seeking pullback opp's...... Cable is merely thrashing around inside this month long clack, horrible price action unless you're happy to get your hands dirty.....again, it's cocking it's head towards Stateside data direction for a lead in.....

tokyo, early Lndn action worth keeping tabs on off this (larger) 62% rejection.......the intraday lines (in bold) likely pullback targets if it doesn't catch a pop lower first........ if it smells like short covering & it tastes like short covering...........

:o this just ticked across the screen......you couldn't make it up LOL........ BRUSSELS (AFX) - European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said euro zone finance ministers should exercise greater discipline in their comments on exchange rates. "Although the current arrangements on the exchange rate policy of the euro area are well designed, they probably need to be better implemented, in particular to achieve more stringent verbal discipline," he said in a speech. "When euro area finance ministers express themselves on exchange rate issues in terms that differ from each other and from the agreed euro area and G7 positions, the most likely outcome on financial markets is the opposite of that intended," he said. Bini Smaghi said market participants interpret any differences in statements on currencies as indications of potential disagreements between policymakers and then tend to push exchange rates in the opposite direction to that desired by the person making the statement. He said public communication on exchange rate issues should be conducted mainly by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet and euro group president Jean-Claude Juncker. "The members of the euro group should thus align their communication to the message agreed between the ECB and the euro group presidency," he said.

it's certainly a neutral to weak $ stance Steve for sure.....Euro is pressuring the top end of it's channel & looks good to go for a run up to check the bullish momentum.....wouldn't be surprised to witness a shake out of weak longs on a confirmed shunt to the 3250 area, with a pullback buy opp....same on Cable at current highs....... obviously it will be 'data dependant' but any mopping up of Euro & Cable longs transacted on Friday & again today, especially on Euro's trip back to todays pivot @ 3150, are sitting to the right side of the value-risk bias......

p**s of early......haha I like it!!! looks like you need another log on the fire Mr Saques.....starting to spit a little up there!........absorb this step & you might just get to the Fib/highs yet........

Tess heard he was back under the cosh at Std Chartered......he sure was an excitable individual........

you're thinking of Aaron (steves-shack).....this Steve's not as crazy as that wiry little jumping jack LOL............

yeah, we've focused on the carry of late Steve.....basically better value in it... those inside guages are just pressure lines.....Anna-Maria & a couple others use them as intraday guides for quick visits as & when they spot a decent risk set-up as prices get bounced inside the larger channel barriers..... I use them as a visual, that's all.......

nothing much in the way of added impetus to kick it this week tho Andre?.....if they blanket this top @ 9600, it'll merely get squared up into the w/end......... might be some late buying to test the resolve, but it's been a lame duck inside this top quartile & won't tempt any follow thru money till it breaks & holds imo............ there have been far more lucrative opp's outside the european majors past few weeks & will continue to be until they shake out.........

hahahaha......don't go prodding him while he's asleep!!.......I'm saying nothing & as an added precaution:- 'Buk hands Andre a bullet proof vest'..........

hey Steve! done nothing on the majors really this week.......just nursing the carry trade stuff which are offering easier opp's of late..... the Jap rates didn't rock the boat after all, much of that hoo haa was virtually priced in, so it's normal sevice again! nice pivot to pivot shunt on your cable trade this morning huh? good stuff

if you find the outlook a little busy or congested, switch across to another pair or cross Steve?.....all the chit chat & mongering around the BoJ's rate meeting this week has pumped the EUR/YEN & GBP/YEN away from their respective s&r zones yesterday........ spying the charts earlier this morning those 2 set up a couple decent opp's yesterday which pushed thru fib lines to help guide their moves a tad........ just a suggestion - might save you sitting thru the occasions when the Dollar pairs become mired in clack.........

yen is also worth keeping tabs on as this bearish M formation off it's 122.0 lows has eased into the 38.2 resistance zone above 119.0....... strong economic data has roused yen bulls & carry trade positions unwound apace last week........whispers are again surfacing of potential Japanese int rate talk & 'desk talk' puts that likelihood at 50/50........ as long as the BoJ hold that gavel, yen will try supress any attempt to get dragged back down thru the 23.6 zone at 120.50....... this psychological 119 level, coupled with the 38.2 long range Fib line throws this pair into a keen each-way axis zone, which will likely open up some decent intraday opportunities into the next couple weeks.........

presidents day eases us into a shortened week with this pair fishing the bottom of the recent range cut…….the % risk play leans toward the bounce off the lower line at the 78.6, which harbours Monday’s S1 pivot line, should the opening/early week prices continue this lower top channel behaviour……… reluctance to climb back above the top channel line & upper fib confluence, points to aggressive (intraday) shorts, sniffing the activity at the 78.6 & round number…….. as was indicated last week, 1.94 holds the aces for the (cable) bulls…..beneath that daily doji print from 3 weeks back, opens up 9260 & a very bearish outlook down to the early summer/fall 06 s&r zones of 1.9130-60... wednesday & friday are the Sterling ‘data days’ of any relevance, whilst wednesday’s dual CPI & FOMC releases will be eagerly eyed from the bucks standpoint……..in the absense of any clear sway from the data, this pair could well get hoofed around inside the range boundaries……….. worth keeping your ears primed for any snippets from Fed jawboners too....specially Janet Yellen, who is on the rostrom twice next week!

hehehehe.....couldn't resist it!! they even throw you decent pare outs/exit zones too

get that whip out & thrash it down to 9450 torero!!

looks like you got your low risk green light off the 15m bars/5min triggers away from the S2 line??

they're quite often handy to refer to as a cross reference exercise yes......although I think you'll find today's activity on the Yen pairs (across the board) is reflecting the knee-jerk jawboning yesterday on the part of "spokespersons" in relation to the upcoming G7 shindig.....

sure....if you get a trigger on any lacklustre pullback then the flows ought to tip you the nod! there is a bit of Daily support around this 1.95 figure, so might be helpful to keep an eye on that level.....the 30 & 15m frames have printed a hammer down yonder which might just slow this drop a tad??

the sight of those twin doji's on the 15m & the negative 5m band drop on the London open makes me wish I'd hauled my ass in to work earlier tho I think even my 'slow-hand' reactions would have managed to trigger those mothers!! LOL........ certainly the cleanest of the triggers amongst the other majors this morning huh?