Snow Dog

Yesterday only had a BE trade. Mrs V looked at JPY but missed/chickened out. After the choppy GU pa moved stop a little (actually a lot) quicker than normal and out at BE. No problem on such a day thats absolutely no big deal at all.

Recap 14 Jan The upper resistance levels held. Of the set ups for counter trend I preferred the 1hr engulfing close on GU. We missed it, no problem today is another opportunity. 15 Jan EUR - No real progress made higher and D closed a doji. 4hr shows signs of flipping over should the current candle closes negative. That may signal a double top, scalp sell (as not yet confirmed by the D). Only time will tell if this is a pause in uptrend or start of a turn. The Mar '12 highs are a major resistance level. We had support yesterday 1.3335. GU - D negative close with a decent lower wick. At present we are bouncing between W pivots and support/resistance levels. 4hr and 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. Support at 1.6000. EJ - D closed on the resistance level and dropped 50 pips in Asian session. It appears the 4hr divergence is now playing out. We moved aggressively away from our D lwma due to the jump on 10th, a pause up is expected. Viewing this as a dip in uptrend, bias up.

Even though the bias was up Y we did OK not to get sucked into a losing trade see arrows up, on Mon mornings (like Fri's) we are very careful. Unfortunately wasn't in front of the computer for the engulfing negative close, that broke below the immediate range, arrow down.

Recap 11 Jan EUR and EJ - Bias up played out. GU - Price did react lower to the 1.6175 resistance level. A lower high close after divergence on 1hr. Then became very volatile between 1.6090 and 1.6175. 14 Jan EUR - D positive close, 4hr and 1hr flow higher high higher low. We are in the area of 26 Mar-3 Apr highs. D is showing divergence, price not showing signs of stopping yet. Bias up next target the Feb highs 1.3450-90. GU - D double top high lower close. 4hr and 1hr charts not as clean as EUR. We are on or above RSI 50 levels, above the ma's and Asian session went up with EUR so bias up. EJ - We are at a resistance level but bias up. The next resistance level I see is the Apr '11 high 123.00.

Mrs V took this one but had stop at BE already before news came out. I was swimming in the pool its been about 95F here lately. Daily pivot held the CT move down for 3 hours. 15 min engulfing close co-incided with 1hr engulfing positive close. 15 min hammer little/no upper wick. Exit at the Y's high/todays open combo for +39.

Thought I'd expand a little on thought process for this morning. Left arrow up, 2b buy at Frankie open. Arrow up right is first possible trade after LO. Luckily it never followed through higher as this would have presented a problem, 1hr had closed with a decent upper wick. Arrow down. 1hr candle closed negative and 15 min has a genuine lower high (as shown by the x's) 1hr into London session. Add in the 6175 resistance level as mentioned above and a CT trade a decent option.

1.6175 was an identified potential resistance level (a turn point 17 Oct). A 1hr shooting star going into LO and then a neg close set up this 15 min lower high move through ema/50 level. 1hr lower high after divergence. Entry after 15 min shooting star little/no lower wick. Happy with pivot as a target and +31 for a CT trade.

Recap 10 Jan The down bias for EUR and GU did not happen as the mentioned support levels 1.30 and 1.60 held. EJ went up as per bias. 11 Jan EUR - Engulfing positive close in reaction to EUR rate discussions. Bias up but obviously can react lower to the highs 1.3250-1.3300. GU - Bias up but can react lower to the 1.6175 resistance level. EJ - Bias up.

Recap 9 Jan The EUR, GU down bias did play out after a failed attempt higher around LO. 10 Jan UK MPC statement, EUR interest rates and press conference. For me after NFP easily days when I am happy to leave trading and come back after the news is out to see if there are nice price waves (higher lows, lower highs) to trade. EUR - Negative D close below the ma, RSI below 50 level. 1hr lower high lower low in tact (barely). We have the proven support level 1.3000, W M2 at 1.3031 and the early Jan lows to contend with. We can obviously bounce higher from these areas but overall bias down. GU - Largely a similar picture, we are at the early Dec lows 1.6000.Bias down. EJ - Positive D close, 1hr flow higher high higher low. Bias up with potential to react to the highs around 115.50.

1hr positive close, 15 min higher low, little/no upper wick. Failed to reach target W pivot out at BE.

EJ 1hr neg close from the W pivot, 15 min lower high little/no lower wick. Just missed pressing above RN, when W M2 held out +22.

A disappointing day for a couple of reasons. Firstly Mrs V was not in front of the computer for this one. Bias for GU was down as mentioned this morning. 1hr doji preceded this 15 min lower high, engulfing close, little/no lower wick. A 60+ pip run down followed. Oh well next trade please.

Recap 8 Jan Bias was up, with the potential for upper resistance levels to hold, they did on all pairs. The 1hr price action was poor in London morning session and we were able to sell a GU engulfing negative close, intra day lower high in US session. 9 Jan EUR - D closed negative, lower high currently on the high from 5 Oct 1.3070, below RSI 50 level and below our ma. 4hr flow still on higher high higher low but a negative close on the current candle would flip this over. Already below our ma's and RSI 50 level. 1hr has already flipped over. Bias down. GU - Essentially the same picture. Bias down, could be some bounces in the support area 1.6000-6030. EJ - The JPY authorities have done a brilliant job of managing their currency weaker to aid their exports. Whilst a negative close on D from the upper resistance level 115.50, after 5 days failing to go higher, should be sell bias today. 1hr lower high lower low flow has already been broken this morning after an Asian session 90 pip move up. Will watch carefully as I prefer to take fewer risks counter trend with JPY pairs.

Bias was up but got no clean signals. A genuine 1hr intra day lower high engulfing close. Target was Y's low 1.6019 but looks like W M2 holding so out +25 as I have to leave computer now.

Recap 7 Jan As mentioned Monday morning did not really do much. The key levels for EUR 1.3000 and GU 1.6000 held. Both pairs had 4 hr engulfing positive closes to signal move up. We traded EJ which did not move up as much. 8 Jan EUR - Support held, D positive close, 4hr flow now higher low, bias up. W M3 1.3180 and lows from 21-31 Dec looks a decent target area. GU - Same picture as EUR. We are at a potential resistance area lows 13 Dec and 24 Dec that we could react lower to, bias up though. Target 1.6175-1.6200. EJ - D close a doji at the resistance level. 4hr shows the reaction lower is getting smaller. Bias up but obviously can react to the proven resistance level.

4hr and 1hr positive closes to return to trend. 15 min hl little/no upper wick. Big thunderstorm coming here so exited at +22, pity would have liked to let this one run.

7 Jan EUR - D, a hammer bounce off the RN 1.3000/support level. Below 50 RSI and price below its ma. 4hr on lower high lower low but has signaled a counter trend buy. 1hr has broken the lower high lower low flow. Conflicting messages so no real bias, a solid 1hr close either way could set up a move. GU - D, a negative close hammer off the support level 1.6000. Below 50 RSI price below its ma. 4hr lower high lower low flow, 1hr appears to have reverted back to lower high lower low. Bias down. EJ - We are in the area (candle body lows from W chart) of the 2008/9 lows and the Jul-Nov 2010 highs. A major support/resistance level. D on higher low above ma but RSI did not cross its signal line. Asian session rejected the move up. 1hr flow up, bias up. Monday mornings are often indecisive, perhaps will wait for US session to see if there is greater clarity.

We finished trading Fri, so all the best over the holidays and normal service will resume 2 Jan (most likely).

Recap 14 Dec As often happens Fri morning was choppy and we were happy to sit on the sidelines. It was not until after the US news that the up bias played out. We were not in front of the computer at the time but patient trend traders were well rewarded. 17 Dec EUR - We are right on the Sep highs after a solid W engulfing close. 5 days move up with barely a retracement does suggest a pullback is likely. Bias up perhaps from the D pivot 1.3132 or M2 1.3112. GU - Similar story to EUR, strong W close right on a proven resistance level. Bias up but like EUR we can always react lower to the R level. EJ - Gapped up on reaction to their election. There may be pressure to move lower to close the gap but then bias up.

Recap 13 Dec Counter trend falls early in London session did provide buying opportunities in line with bias. 14 Dec EUR - D closed a doji previous highs respected, 1.3100 proving to be a key level. The failure to go higher is clearly shown on 4hr chart which is showing divergence (price has not yet confirmed), 1hr looking choppy with divergence and its get tight between possible entry and the highs. We seem to have an inverse head and shoulders with 1.3100 the neckline. Bias up, getting an entry might be tricky. There obviously can be fall from 1.3100. GU - D closed negative, RSI crossed lower but we are still above 8 lwma. The negative close seems to have confirmed the divergence. 4hr has sell signal and a lower high, ranges contained by the W pivots. No bias. EJ - D closed positive on a narrow range, making new highs and RSi is not confirming. 4hr higher high higher low in tact and also showing divergence (price to yet confirm). Bias up. Friday mornings can be volatile so with the mixed signals will be careful on any trades, or just sit out a likely option.

Recap 12 Dec The up bias played out. 13 Dec EUR - D pos close and we are approaching the next resistance area 1.3120/40. Had a decent pull back on 4hr which bounced from D pivot (just happens to be 4hr 8 lwma). Higher high higher low flow in tact. Bias up. GU - D positive close, hit the resistance level. 4hr has signaled sell. Higher high higher low flow in tact but if 1hr fails here would give a lower high on that chart and scalp sell. Overall bias up. EJ - Looks clear bias up, biggest problem might be getting entry.

Recap 11 Dec The up bias did play out on all pairs. 12 Dec EUR - Positive D close that stopped on the Feb/Apr resistance level 1.3015. We also have W M3 just above at 1.3025. Bias is up but obviously we can go lower from this proven turn area. GU - D positive close close to previous high 1.6130. There is hidden divergence in play, price action must confirm (thanks Sunny fx). US session could not take us any higher which raises a little question mark. Asian session support at W R1 1.6108. Bias up but potential to turn 1.6130. There are resistance areas a little higher but reaching them would be good target in line with up bias. EJ - D positive close approaching previous high 107.90, potential divergence. Bias up obviously we can go lower from the turn area.

Recap 10 Dec Bias was down which did not play out. GU did signal a counter trend buy opportunity with a 4hr engulfing close, higher low at W M2. This halted the 4hr lower high lower low flow. A higher low on 4hr, by definition a multiple candle pattern, showing over many hours price does not want to go lower. EUR support level 1.2880/W M2 held, 1hr had a higher low following divergence, showing over a 12 hour period that it did not want to go lower. If you want to go counter trend you need multiple reasons to do so. For us its a confluence of support/resistance levels, W pivots, higher TF divergence, price showing over many hours that it does not want to carry on previous direction. 11 Dec EUR - Positive close on D but we are still below the 8 lwma and RSI has not crossed its signal line (but on 50 level). 4hr and 1hr flow now higher low. Bias up. GU - D higher low engulfing close, 4hr flow now up. Bias up. EJ - Another D hammer, not moving up with same enthusiasm as EUR. D below 8 lwma and RSI nowhere near to crossing up. Only time will tell if EUR and GU are going up or if these D moves are a test and we get lower highs going forward. For now the short term flow is up.

Recap 7 Dec Bias was down, currencies fell until a news bounce pushed all pairs up. 10 Dec The Fri push up did not follow through in Asian session. EUR - D chart closed with a lower wick, we are below RSI 50 level and below 8 lwma. 4hr on lower high lower low. Bias down. GU and EJ - Essentially the same charts as EUR, bias down.

Recap 6 Nov EUR - A small push up to W M4 1.3079 at London open. It took the interest rate decision and ECB conference for the bias down to play out as expected. GU and EJ charts were not as clear going into 6th. They did share the same theme, small pushes higher could not follow through for several hours, clear on 4hr charts. Key levels, divergences so enough reason to counter trend sell after the news. 7 Dec NFP day, like the UK/EUR interest rates days yesterday (and the UK MPC minutes release) are days when I am happy to sit on the sidelines until after the news release. EUR - We have now had the D engulfing close that we have been patiently waiting for to confirm the down bias from the analysis yesterday morning. Bias remains down. GU and EJ - Essentially the same charts. Interesting again to see the magnets that are the W pivots. Bias down.