Snow Dog

GU W Pivot, divergence, failed to follow bias up On the morning of 31 Jan I had an up bias for all currencies due to the 4hr flow. The 4hr candle that was open at the time I posted subsequently closed below the W R1 pivot, see arrow up. Now the question must be asked if you consider the 3 day move up a rally in downtrend that you want to sell or the start of a significant move up. So a sell is either counter trend or resumption of D trend down. Either way you are going against the immediate flow up. As posted previously on my blog, if we are considering counter trend trades we want over whelming additional information to consider, such as: - Proven support/resistance levels. - W pivots. - Divergence on higher time frames. - Price action proving it does not want to progress for hours, double tops/bottoms , higher lows/lower highs, evening/morning star patterns, engulfing closes. - Psych levels eg round numbers In addition to the right kind of price action on 15 min, double tops/bottoms , higher lows/lower highs, evening/morning star patterns, engulfing closes. In this case we have - W R1 at 1.5877 - 4hr and 1hr divergence - Price action stalled for some 16 hours failing to break higher - On the 15 min chart the multiple tops are evident, we have divergence, then a lower high following divergence with evening star pattern. The right kind of price action to follow on 15 min with the higher time frame set up.

4hr chart W pivots EUR GU Just putting up to show yet again how the W pivots seem to attract price. In addition to support and resistance levels i consider W pivots important.

The final chart for the last ej trade with entry/exit, +200.

Charts for this trade.

Mrs V up and making tea. Stop now just below the RN for +136. The 20 Pips Bank Hall of Fame, after years of faithful service, have requested Mrs V return her Membership Card. They site recent 50-70 pip trades and now a trade left overnight. Anyway Mrs V now must manage her trade and decide if ultimate target is the Mar/Apr '10 highs, if yes then when to move stop and when to re-enter will be interesting. This is by far her biggest single trade.

Had a couple of BE buys ej and gu earlier when there was no follow through. EJ 4 hr lower wicks the whole day yesterday certainly suggesting that we were going up sometime. D up, 4hr lower wicks, 1hr engulfing close, 15 min engulfing close back into trend. Mrs V insisted we leave this one as we have missed out on too many pips in moves up on EJ in Asian session. Stop at the moment just below 124.50 for +90.

Recap 31 Jan EUR - Bias was up, London open was choppy didn't move up until US session. 15 min buys with stops below the last swing lows would have been safe. GU - No bias either way D close positive. EJ - Bias was up, as per EUR 15 min buys with stops below the last swing low would have been safe. 1 Feb EUR, GU, EJ 4hr flows clearly up. Bias up.

Recap 30 Jan EUR - Sitting on the resistance level. An early move up at Frankfurt open, then a perfect 15 min higher low at 1.5700 in line with trend. GU - No bias for either direction, it went up. EJ - Frankfurt move up, then 2 further chances to enter in line with trend. 31 Jan EUR - D positive close, 4hr flow higher high higher low. Bias up. GU - No bias either way, can move up with positive D close or react lower to the approaching resistance level 15 Nov lows 1.5825. EJ - 4hr hinting at scalp sells but I wouldn't like to bet against any resumptions of uptrend.

Recap 29 Jan EUR - Had no specific bias yesterday. There was a 15 min sell after London open will little follow through lower. The buys in US session after price formed a low, then an engulfing 1hr positive close. 15 min higher low that took 3 hours to form to revert to trend. GU - Bias was down, got it wrong. EJ - I said "No bias can go either way but view is sells scalps and looking for return to trend." Price fell in the morning with a 1hr hammer rejecting the lows, pushed up on 15 min higher low to resume trend. 30 Jan EUR - D closed positive, 4hr higher high higher low flow in tact. We are right on the highs from Feb '12. Bias up but we can react lower to the resistance level. GU - D positive close RSI has crossed its signal line but below our lwma. We are at the resistance level from June/July '12. This can be start of move up or retrace in downtrend. A positive D close would be expected to follow through but the resistance level could hold. No bias can go either way. EJ - We are approaching the April '11 highs. D positive close but we did not break last weeks high. Divergence on D and 4hr, price action yet to confirm. Would like entries to give sufficient scope to move stop or take partial profits before 122.80 and then the major April high. Bias up but can react to the levels mentioned.

2 trades. Gu this morning 1hr doji, 15 min 2b we thought rejecting move up through the pivot 1.5716 and getting back into downtrend. It didn't -18. EJ 1hr chopping with a hammer then shooting star. After a 120 pip CT run down 2 x 15 min dojis at 121.50. Waited for high of 1hr shooting star to get taken out. Mrs V waited to long to exit missing 2 opp's at the high, with her neck giving some stick she asked me to watch. Gave it a couple more chances to go higher and happy to exit +50.

Recap 28 Jan EUR - London open was very scrappy as it often is on a Mon morning. There were a couple of buy opportunities in line with bias. The best one in the US session but there was little follow through. GU - There were 15 min sell opportunities in line with bias. EJ - Bias up and the best opportunity came in the US session. 29 Jan EUR - D closed a hammer that could not trade higher than yesterday. We are still above RSI 50 levels but failed to make any progress higher. No bias can go either way today. GU - D engulfing negative close.4hr lower high lower low in tact. Bias down. EJ - D chart very similar to EUR, hammer close no progress higher. D chart still showing divergence. We are above 50 RSI. We have seen on D chart that moves down can last for a few days. No bias can go either way but view is sells = scalps and looking for return to up trend.

Mrs V took 1 trade yesterday having left London open as its often a bit choppy. We had bad internet connection here and lost connection 3 times, exited just above BE when she had the chance. Price did not go lower for 4 hrs strongly suggesting the CT move lower ran out of steam. 15 min higher low, about a 6 pip upper wick about the limit for us on 15 min chart. Pity trade hit her target. Next trade please.

28 Jan EUR - After the positive D close Fri that stopped at the resistance level we have formed a base at 1.3450. We could get a push below this, still bias up. GU - Gap down this morning at Asian open which may see some pressure to close today. Support at 1.5741. D is hinting at divergence, 4hr showed divergence on 25th but we did have a move up after that. At this stage looking for any push up to give a lower high and sells in trend hoping for 1.5745 to fail. EJ - Consolidating above 122.20 after 2 strong days. Even if we retrace further bias up.

Recap 25 Jan EUR - Had no bias for the day. When I posted early in the morning we had an evening star pattern on 4hr. This failed and the next candle closed positive above W M3 for a 4hr higher low. This failure to go lower left us above 1hr 50 ema (nicely sloped up) and so in short term uptrend. There were 15 min entries before Frankfurt open and then continuation moves just after London open when price held above 1.3400, pre US open and after US news. The last 3 our preferred times for trades. EUR closed the week with an engulfing close on the Feb '12 highs. Bias up for next week but we can obviously react lower from this resistance level. GU - Bias was down but there were no nice set ups for us to consider. D closed a doji within the recent range. 4hr shows the move into the lows from 21-23 Jan rejected with a shooting star. The move lower is just about holding on. Nothing convincing though. EJ - Nothing seems to hold EJ down at the moment. 15 min trades available at approx the same times as EUR. D closed positive and whilst we should have some retracements bias remains up.

Mrs V has been sick all week. Just wanted to escape from the bedroom, trend is all too clear. Got in just after LO, got out switched computer off went back to bed. 15 min hl, little no upper wick in direction of trend +50. Nice one.

Recap 24 Jan EUR - There was movement yesterday either earlier than we trade or difficult to get into from either overly large candles or the upper wicks. GU - The down bias played out with 15 min lower high engulfing closes pre/early US session. EJ - The up bias played out with 15 min higher lows just after London open and pre/early US session. 25 Jan EUR - D engulfing positive close at the recent highs, we are still within the 1.3400 resistance level. D still showing divergence. 4hr has closed an evening star pattern and 1 hr on lower high lower low. No bias can go either way. GU - D engulfing negative close, 4hr and 1hr lower high lower low flow. Bias down. EJ - D positive engulfing close at the recent highs. 1hr chart is showing divergence. Bias up but can reject the highs.

24 Jan The sideways price action continues, in ranging markets its important to try and get in at the extremes. The first trade in the move is the best trade. EUR - Another D doji. Still waiting for a good D close to give some direction. GU - Similar to EUR. D, 4hr and 1hr all below RSI 50 level so bias down with possibility of bounce up from 1.5800 support area. EJ - Asian session broke above yesterdays range from the 117.50 support level running 130 pips already this morning. Hopefully we will see some consolidation and continue up.

Recap 22 Jan EUR - 1hr doji then a shooting star at W M3 set up sell opportunities at the extremes of the upper range. On any given day the extremes of the immediate range are the places to trade, even more important when there isn't a trend. The first trade is the best trade. GU - No bias yesterday could have gone either way. There was a London open sell from a 15 min shooting star, at the extreme of price action when W M2 1.5858 held for 4 hours. EJ - Bias was down and there were 15 min lower high shooting star sells at London open and US session. 23 Jan UK MPC minutes this morning, with the state of the UK economy would not expect surprises. Will most likely look for trades after the news. On many days likely set ups are clearly seen, today isn't one of them for me at least. EUR - D closed a doji that filled the recent range 1.3375 - 1.3265. RSI's ma's flat, no bias. Based on these charts there have to be better set ups elsewhere. The day might bring greater clarity. GU - D closed a doji with the lows holding. No bias either way. EJ - D closed lower with the lower support level, W S1 117.37 holding. Bias down.

Missed out badly with moves down this morning, it happens. After the big bounce from W S1/S3 117.30 area 1hr lower high shooting star. 15 min lh little/no lower wick. Happy to exit +51.

Recap 21 Jan The US holidays and poor EUR price action continued yesterday with no moves. GU did give a trade down in line with bias when 1hr engulfing closed negative and a little later 4hr lower high closed negative. EJ gave a couple of scalp sells in line with short term sell bias. 22 Jan EUR - D close gives no insight and a 50 pip bounce up late Asian session needs to hold. The 4hr is still in effect going sideways. Will be looking for clarity on flow for direction and if this is not clearer at London open perhaps US open. GU - Another D doji in the area of the Nov lows. In this run down doji's have been followed by a strong down day but we now have that support level. We are now in a late Asian session push up, 4hr still on lower high but showing positive divergence to price. No bias as there are arguments for buy or sell, good 1hr candles could take this either way. EJ - D negative divergence, RSI crossed below signal line, but still above 50 level. 4hr negative divergence and a lower high following divergence is normally a decent set up. Bias down but there is always the likelihood the BOJ will take some action.

Recap 18 Jan EUR bias was up with potential to go lower from the highs (1.3400 area). It fell with an evening star pattern on 15 min. GU was no bias could have gone either way. Again the move above the immediate range just before London open was rejected with a doji and also completed an evening star pattern. there was then a weak pre US open push up reverting to trend after US news. EJ did not follow bias up. 21 Jan EUR - A negative close day that did not challenge last weeks lows. 4hr going sideways within the 1.3400-1.3250 range. Direction at this time is unclear. GU - All time frames below RSI 50 level with some divergence on 1hr. Bias down but we have the Nov support area 1.5825 approaching. 4hr and 1hr flows down. EJ - D doji with divergence, 4hr divergence. 4hr and 1hr RSI crossed below their signal lines so short term sell bias, D has not as yet agreed.

Endlessly. The only things that have changed is that now entries mainly from 15 min chart. I have better rules for trend v counter trend. I have a greater awareness of trading with the 1hr flow. Basics per 1st post still apply.

Recap 17 Jan EUR - No bias for the day pending break of immediate range. It broke up. GU - Bias was down, had a push up at London open into the area of 4-15 Jan lows/W S1, and a fall from there. EJ - Bias was down but we had D hammer. In addition a 100 pip drop in Asian session is always a little troubling for the ability to drop further. There have been good 1hr/15 min turn trades at the extremes of recent ranges.That happened fairly early. After my post yesterday a 1hr morning star pattern unfolded and 4hr flow halted. 18 Jan EUR - Engulfing D close at the resistance level just below 1.3400. 1hr flow higher high higher low. This D higher low close is completely different to the reaction from this level at the beginning of April '12. Bias up with the potential to go lower from the highs. GU - D closed a doji perhaps showing divergence (price action yet to confirm) stopping at the previously identified support level 1.5950. If the 1hr does not fall we will have a higher low. No bias can go either way. EJ - D engulfing close (close higher than the previous 2 candle closes). Looks like BOJ not letting their hard work go to waste. Next target 123.00. Bias up.

Recap 16 Jan The down bias was more pronounced on GU. Whilst there were good selling trades on EUR (and EJ) the support above 1.3250 gave buy opportunites for counter trend trades from a proven support level. 17 Jan EUR - D close a hammer and we have not closed below our lwma or had RSI cross. No bias, until we break the immediate range it seems that scalp buys and sells from 1hr/15 min candles near the most recent price extremes may be effective. GU - D negative close, 4hr and 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. EJ - D close a hammer. 4hr flow on lower high lower low. A 100 pip drop in Asian session is always a little troubling for the ability to drop further. Bias down. As per EUR recently there have been good 1hr/15 min turn trades at the extremes of recent ranges. Targets 116.45 yesterdays low, then perhaps the 116.00 support level.

Recap 15 Jan EUR - Poor price action, the 4hr did flip over and the bias down did play out but the main move lower was late in US session. GU - Very choppy, small range with the lower resistance level holding. EJ - A major move down started with an engulfing close 4hr. In the bigger picture on D this can still be dip in uptrend. Several hours of 1hr candles up getting taken out with 1hr move down. That gives pause for thought. 16 Jan EUR - D negative close forming an evening star pattern in the area of the Dec highs, RSI not crossed lower, not below lwma as yet. D divergence has played out. 4hr and 1hr below RSI 50 level and 1hr flow on lower high lower low. In view of D evening star pattern and 1hr flow bias down but we can react to the support level 1.3250/90. GU - D doji, RSI flat below 50 level. 4hr and 1hr sideways moves but we are below/on the RSI 50 level and below ma's. That suggests bias down but would like to see solid lower closes for a trade. EJ - D solid negative engulfing close, the range of the previous 2 days. 4hr and 1hr below RSI 50 level. Perhaps the JPY authorities have taken their foot off the weak yen for the moment. I struggle to think we'll have a repeat of yesterday however bias now down until 1hr flow turns up. Can the next support level 115.50/116.00 be reached?