Snow Dog

1. Setting goals. They must be realistic, attainable and measurable. Visualise yourself reaching these goals. 2. Always use stops, appropriate to your system. 3. Time has no bearing on money. You could earn 5% in an hour more than you get from a bank account in a year. That has no bearing on whether the market is going to carry on in the same direction. 4. Nobody went broke banking profits. 5. Review each session, what did the market give, what could you reasonably get. 6. If you are consistently falling considerably short on whats reasonably available review your entry and exit strategy. 7. Demo trade successfully before you trade with real money. The market will be there tomorrow. 8. Go for experience before you go for the money, in trading and in life in general. 9. Don't stay married to a trade if everything suggests get out. Review losses, what, why, where and when are always good questions to ask. Did you trade your plan. 10. Plan your trade, stick to your system.

1. A none system trade than wins is probably the worst thing you can have happen to you. You'll either dilute your system or trade everything in sight thinking you can. Act in your own best interests. 2. Trading rules, get them, follow them. Trading rules should cover entry, stops and exit strategy. Its your trade take 100% responsibility. Rules can also cover hours you trade, stopping after so many losses, whatever is right for you. 3. Trading because you are afraid of missing a move is not acting in your own best interest. 4. If its going up buy, if its going down sell. 5. Flawless execution. You don't need to buy the absolute low or sell the absolute high to make money. Flawless execution means acting on an opportunity in terms of your rules the moment that you see it. Act without hesitation. Follow your rules flawlessly. 6. Use stops always. 7. Lock in profits, trail stops in a manner appropriate to your system. 8. In this business protecting yourself and acting in your own best interests is so much more important than taking a chance. Its not even close. Remember you are trading, not gambling. 9. Keep yourself out of bad losing trades, the quality winning trades per your system will come. 10. Bank profits, what's the market offering and what are your goals? Let winners run.

1. Trade what you see not what you think. Don't get locked into an opinion about direction. You could be wrong just as easily as right. 2. Build a strong self image. 3. Review your trades and your goals. 4. Mistakes are valuable lessons, perhaps more important than winning trades. Make sure you learn from and don't repeat mistakes. 5. Have you looked at how your system stacks up in a trending (up and down) as well as a ranging market? 6. Learn to relax. Feel good about yourself. 7. Think clearly, got major problems in your life? If you do it's probably not a good time to trade. 8. Picture yourself as a successful trader. 9. You do not have to have trades generating hundreds of pips to make a great income. 10. Don't carry on making the same mistakes, if your system is not working stop trading real money and go back to the drawing board. Making the same mistakes is going to give you the same results and it isn't pretty.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishments. If you can get this simple concept right you'll probably have a great trading career. The only trick is it's a massive all embracing concept. Discipline to: 1)Take the time and effort to check your trading plan works (in up/down/ranging markets). 2)Execute flawlessly. This doesn't mean every trade is a winner (they won't be) but it means to trade when you see your rules play out. 3)Not chase a move simply because you are scared you'll miss out, there are more trades coming. 4)Know the difference between a price move and a trade. A trade is something that complies with your rules. A price move is a random jump in the market that you couldn't have anticipated. So plan your trades, trade your plan and avoid the wrong trades.

Key levels, will they hold or fail There are numerous key levels on any chart. For example previous support and resistance levels, pivots, round numbers, fib's. The more important the level the bigger the reaction should be. There are some very good traders out there that can identify and trade these key levels. I look to exit trades at key levels and then look for a reaction. As an example if a certain price caused a 200 pip move previously and comes back hits and moves 40, hits again and moves 20 (hopefully you've been in all the trades in direction of trend). Those smaller bounces away from the key level are usually pretty good indications that the key level will fail. Nothing works 100% (as previously mentioned and price will do what it wants) but apart from the hope that we will have been in the moves (trading higher lows and lower highs) to the key levels, we look at the size of bounces. If the bounces are getting smaller we'll look for the right candles to see if that key level will fail. Higher lows/lower highs from these levels provide opportunities to enter the market at extremes.

You can expand your own rules to include more specific/technical requirements of your preferred set up e.g. size of 15 min candles on entry such as leaving eur, gu 15 min candles larger than 30 pips. For me I have a requirement of little/no wick in direction of trade on set up candle.

With the above rules in mind go back and look at the D analysis I post, then the trades taken and look for the view in trend or not. If CT look for the reasons, I'd usually mention SR level/W pivot, several hours refusing to continue in trend and good 1hr set up candle.

Trade Rules These rules are very close to ours. I have been asked by someone to help with their trades rules which is not possible. All I can do is say what mine are. These are our bread and butter trades, those that do not comply with this will be very few and far between. They should either have solid logic that we can live with or be part of a trading strategy that we previously used but is not the main focus now. General I will trade according to what I identify as the flow of the market. I will analyse EUR, GU, EJ prior to the trading day. I will look to trade the currencies that comply with my analysis. I accept that between the time of my initial analysis and London open circumstances may change and I will take that into consideration. I will research the methods, currencies and time of day that I choose to trade (20 days each in uptrend/downtrend/sideways markets). This will assist with the background to be comfortable in my method. Rules I will: - do analysis from D, 4hr and 1hr and enter from 15 min and if necessary 1hr candles. - look for flow from my 3 higher time frames. Are we above or below 8lwma, has RSI crossed its signal line (8 RSI, 8sma), above or below the RSI 50 level. Do we have engulfing closes or completed candle patterns (higher low/lower high, double top/double bottom, morning/evening star). Big picture trend in line with D, short term counter trend from 4hr/1hr. - identify support and resistance levels that can influence the trade - look for divergences - enter trades from 15 min chart, candles that open and close opposite side of 8lwma or test the 8lwma - always use stops, a few pips beyond the last swing high/low. Typically 15-25 pips on EUR and GU, 25-35 for EJ. - assess exits depending on range of the day, typically at support/resistance levels, psych levels and pivots. - look to trade at three main times around London open, pre/early US and post US news - trade at other times only if past analysis supports this e.g EJ during late Asian session/pre Frankfurt open - trade with the trend as identified by higher time frame analysis and buy above/sell below 200 ema on 15 min. This ema is a guide and price action must support each decision. Above/below any ema will never make it a trade, proper analysis does. - trade counter trend from proven support and resistance levels and W pivots. Only when price has proven over a period of several hours that it does not want to continue in trend (specifically not 1 x 1hr candle). I will look to assess divergences and candle engulfing closes for patterns (higher low/lower high, double top/double bottom, morning/evening star) on 1hr that by their very definition require several hours to complete. - accept system compliant losses as the risk of doing business. I will critically assess each loss for mistakes in execution or for possible improvements to methods. I will not accept none system losses (or none system wins) and will strive to avoid repeating errors. I fully believe Discipline is the Bridge Between Goals and Accomplishments. None system trades will not get me to my goals. These are the general trade rules I follow, amend them to fit your trading circumstances.

Recap 8 Feb EUR - View was "Bias is down move up would need solid price action first". Price had a small move up at London open, hesitated for approx 4 hours before falling on a 15 min engulfing lower high negative close (the close lower than prior 2 candle closes). I have highlighted the 1 particular candle. GU - Bias up played out. EJ - Same as EUR, bias down but if the post news comments do not follow through will need solid candle patterns to resume uptrend. Bias down played out. The engulfing close indi shows where the candle immediately before the arrow closes above/below the prior 2 candle closes.

This finishes one of our best weeks ever. 9 wins 2 losses, one of the losses was a completely stupid trade taken by Mrs V. :doh::doh: Wasn't system or close to it so not posting.

15 min lower high little/no lower wick in direction of trade. Exit when W M2 held after bounce up 2hrs earlier. +46.

Just thought I'd chuck up D charts to show the previously identified SR levels.

Recap 7 Feb Interest rate day UK and EUR. EUR - Price moved up to the W pivot where it stalled for 4 hours, bias down then played out. GU - Bias up played out. EJ - View was short term bias down but should flow confirm move up on 1hr with positive close crossing RSI/8lwma would be looking for uptrend to resume. We did move up at London open, same 4hr stall and fall as EUR. 8 Feb EUR - D engulfing negative close stopped at the 11-24 Jan resistance level/W M1. 4hr and 1hr lower high lower low flow. Below RSI 50 level on 3 time frames. The only doubt is if the market having absorbed Draghi's comments decides to resume the uptrend. Bias is down move up would need solid price action first. GU - D has upper wick and RSI crossed up. 4hr and 1hr above 50 level. Bias up. EJ - Same as EUR, bias down but if the post news comments do not follow through will need solid candle patterns to resume uptrend. Friday morning so care needed.

EJ moved up to the area of the highs in 1 big 15 min candle this morning then spent 4 hrs going nowhere. 1hr engulfing negative close. 15 min lh little/no lower wick in direction of trade. Out at the prev days lows +79. One thing we need to work on is re-entries when its apparent that it isn't going to reverse.

Recap 6 Feb EUR - View was D positive close should follow through higher. Bias up. Failure for that kind of D candle not to go higher should sound some alarm bells. A scrappy day lots of lower wicks after London open then a small fall going into YS session. GU - Said the divergence is a concern, bias down and looking for solid set ups to continue trend. Scrappy day with the lower support level holding 1.5625. EJ - Bias was up until price action confirms otherwise, even then if we do have a pullback will be looking for signals to resume uptrend. Like EUR lots of lower wicks around London open then a bit of a fall. The sell divergences played out. 7 Feb Interest rate day UK and EUR. EUR - D lower high negative close, appears to show a 4 day reversal pattern. RSI crossed lower. 4hr made a lower high RSI below 50 level. Bias down. GU - D closed a doji, showing positive divergence RSI still below 50 level. 4hr showing positive divergence and a base forming. Bias up. EJ - D negative close doji at the resistance level 127.75. D has crossed RSI lower after the divergence. 4hr still on higher high higher low but thats looking like failing. Short term bias down but should flow confirm move up on 1hr with positive close crossing RSI/8lwma would be looking for uptrend to resume.

Yesterday 1st trade ej buy 127.08. 2 large lower wicks on 1hr, often in trending market I suppose this would be a good enough set up. With divergences on D, 4hr and 1hr perhaps not good enough for today. Not closing across the 1hr 8lwma is a bit of an issue. Would I have done differently, I have absolutely no idea, its easy to armchair quarterback. Like I said all you can do is file it away, try and remember to watch out in future, is it a tweak needed or just one of the 25% + or - that don't work out. 1st losing trade this week, she's up 6 trades to 1 so lets not over react hey!!. 2nd trade sell at 126.49 CT. OK she gave it a 2nd chance to go, but when it paused the 2nd time at the low/RN and failed to go lower I would hope to see the exit closer to the low/RN.

Recap 5 Feb EUR - Bias was down. We got a doji at W S1 1.3464 and the identified support level that sparked a return to trend. GU - I had 1hr can go either way its on a higher low and lower high. Bias up but if 1hr falls it will shift short term flow down again. London open took us up then a large upper wick rejecting move above W M3 and 1.5800 followed by a negative close took us lower. EJ - View was 1hr can easily flip to a higher low here to revert to trend. No bias can go either way, we'll see what London open brings. Reverted to uptrend. 6 Feb EUR - Positive D close, yesterdays high respected over night. The D positive close should follow through higher, 1hr flow higher high higher low. Is the W pivot 1.3587 at a possible head and shoulders level? Bias up. Failure for that kind of D candle not to go higher should sound some alarm bells. GU - D engulfing negative close should follow through lower. D and 4hr charts showing divergence, flow lower high lower low. The divergence is a concern, bias down and looking for solid set ups to continue trend. EJ - Positive D close just about getting to the previously mentioned resistance level 127.77 area. D, 4hr and 1hr showing divergence. Bias up until price action confirms otherwise, even then if we do have a pullback will be looking for signals to resume uptrend.

1hr upper wicks then engulfing negative closes. These candles are strong and would not count as what we call weak pre/early US CT candles that we avoid trading. 15 min lower high little/no lower wick sell at 1.5750, exit at bounce from S1 for +35.

Felt that GU could go either way today. 1hr morning star pattern, 15 min higher low little/no upper wick that co-incided with the close of 1hr candle. Out at RN for +43.

Recap 4 Feb EUR - D is inconclusive, no bias. Price fell, the evening star pattern played out. GU - Bias down but can bounce from last weeks lows/W M2 1.5670-5680. We bounced from lows. EJ - There is potential for counter trend move lower. Bias remains up. The counter trend move lower played out. 5 Feb EUR - Negative engulfing close, 1hr flow lower high lower low bias down. GU - Positive D close at the resistance level. 4hr is still on lower high, 1hr can go either way its on a higher low and lower high. Bias up but if 1hr falls it will shift short term flow down again. EUR - Negative D close, 4hr hammer, 1hr lower high flow. The 1hr can easily flip to a higher low here to revert to trend. No bias can go either way, we'll see what London open brings.

EJ CT trade. 4hr divergence at the Fri highs, this weeks W M3 at 126.75. 1hr lower high engulfing negative close. 15 min lh engulfing close little/no lower wick. CT so happy to exit at 50 psych level/M2 combo for just shy of +30. Looks like its going lower now but no problem happy with that as a CT trade.

Recap 1 Feb EUR bias was up, initial moves followed that. Post US news was very erratic. GU - Bias was up, GU stalled for 16 hours in total at the W pivot and previous weeks high. The 4hr higher low did not close higher. 4hr and 1hr divergence. The lower high following divergence gave a good trade opportunity. EJ - Bias was up and we went up. 4 Feb EUR - D is above our lwma and RSI 50 level, large upper wick. 4hr signaled sell with an evening star but now in the middle of a triangle. Triangles normally break in direction of trend which is up. D is inconclusive, no bias. GU - Oversize engulfing close, it remains to be seen if this is a blow out last push down from sellers. Asia had no real move up. Bias down but can bounce from last weeks lows/W M2 1.5670-5680. EJ - D positive close. 4hr double top with divergence but higher low flow in tact. 1hr divergence. There is potential for counter trend move lower. Bias remains up.

Counter trend - building a set of trade rules I view trend and support and resistance levels as the two most important concepts in trading. Trend is time frame dependent so what doesn't work on 4hr counter trend might give a scalp trade on 1 min. For the idea of developing a set of counter trend rules I'm going to discuss the 4hr chart. Trying to get a set of rules that assumes the D chart has not yet signaled a turn but will give trades in terms of 1hr set up and 15 min entry. Trades that should give some follow through on 4hr. The best advice I can give is stick with the trend, use support and resistance levels and especially for GU and EUR the W pivots. Stick with the trend until you have very good reasons not to i.e. support/resistance level or W pivot, higher time frame divergences, price action sticking for hours proving it wants to reverse, engulfing closes that break the immediate range. If in doubt leave the trade. Then don't worry if it goes in the direction that you thought it would. There is a good chance the trend will resume. As an exercise put up EUR or GU 4hr chart, put on RSI (I use 8 rsi 8 sma) with a 21 ema and a tight price following ma, I use 8 lwma. Have a look at how long the moves are when RSI is either above or below the 50 RSI level. Then have a good look at the moves against this that work or fail? So have a look at counter trend sells above RSI 50 level and buys below RSI 50. Possible counter trend factors: - A support/resistance level or W pivot - Angle of 21 ema - Time of day (London open, pre/early US open, London Close) - Change in candle colour - Close on the other side of 8 lwma - RSI crosses - Divergence - Lower high/higher low engulfing close, morning/evening star pattern i.e. a multi candles pattern, change in flow - RSI move through 50 level You might notice that candles that change colour are poor signals even if at a support/resistance area or W pivot. You might see a cross of RSI at a support/resistance area, with a lower high/higher low engulfing close that follows divergence has a high chance of success. I don't know what will jump out that you will see. What I do know is you should be able to put together a check list that will help avoid many failed counter trend trades. Always realising that until D has signaled a turn you are counter trend and need to change profit targets and always be looking for trend to resume.

I've always been of the view that you make your profit when you buy. In that (even in trend) a poor entry will inevitably end in tears. I saw this trade posted elsewhere so will use as an example. Entry (buying) was taken after the close of the candle marked x, so will be around 1.3670 or some 70 pips from the LO low. That has to be is a very high risk entry based on a 15 min chart and likely small-ish stop. So I'll stick with your profit is made on entry, but obviously MM and an exit that is appropriate to your winning % and size of stop is vital.

Lower high following divergence GU 1 Feb. A lower high or higher low following divergence is often a good trade and indication the flow has reversed. In this case its a lower high.