Snow Dog

Recap 20 Feb 20 Feb EUR - View was: We stopped at the W M3 pivot 1.3439. Cannot explain why I have doubts about this move up but charts say bias up. Price stalled at the Asian highs/W M3 for 4hrs with divergence on 1hr. The main part of the fall happened after we stopped trading. GU - View was: We are in the area of July '12 lows 1.5400/25. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Bias down. Strong fall on the news. EJ - View was: 1hr flow down after the double top 125.90. A solid 1hr engulfing close would confirm move up. Bias up but a negative, engulfing close on 4hr could change that. We did get the engulfing negative close and move down.

Stop held by 2 pips. Exited +48.

This might be a blown trade. Had TP just below RN hoping that W pivot would get pushed through. It didn't, amended TP and just have to hope we push up to test the double top (see 4hr chart) for a 3rd time. I'm not holding my breath, Mrs V wants us to leave I think 40 pips here is still a decent trade.

20 Feb MPC minutes this morning one of the days I will either trade early or wait until after the news. EUR - Positive D close off the 1.33 support area, slight RSI divergence. 1hr flow now higher high higher low. We stopped at the W M3 pivot 1.3439. Cannot explain why I have doubts about this move up but charts say bias up. GU - D negative close, RSI not moving lower. We are in the area of July '12 lows 1.5400/25. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Bias down. EJ - D close did nothing, moving up over night in Asian session. 1hr flow down after the double top 125.90. A solid 1hr engulfing close would confirm move up. Bias up but a negative, engulfing close on 4hr could change that.

Recap 19 Feb EUR - View was bias down with potential move up from the support level. W M2 1.3332 held for 7 hours and gave buys after US open and then a little later in session. GU - Bias down with potential move up from the support level. We did move down after 3hours failing to go up and 2 decent upper wicks on 1hr.. EJ - Bias was up, it played out when support level held for approx 7 hours.

Mrs V is making those leave overnight noises, EJ due for a pop up. We have an open 4hr candle, if it closes strongly that should signal one of the 2 or 3 decent trades that happen a week from 4hr.

Reached M2 at 125.20, stop moved to BE.

The EJ 1hr lower high shooting star at Frankfurt open was a good sell, even if counter to the up bias. That was too early. We are in long at 124.85, pushed up to 125.20 and came back, will exit at BE if RN holds.

One of the things we did pick up on, in most recent losing trades over the last few months. When 1hr has back to back hammer/shooting star, even when following trend there were losing trades. Its only a very small sample but when something like 4 of 6 last losing (system) trades is this exact set up it should get your interest. We treat hammers/shooting stars back to back with a lot more respect. This chart is just an example not a trade taken. In this case after the hammer we'd be thinking buy perhaps, getting in and the low of the hammer was failing, in the 1hr candle immediately following the hammers close.

Not a lot happened yesterday with the US holiday. 19 Feb I'll retain the bias from 18th. EUR - Bias down with potential move up from the support level. GU - Bias down with potential move up from the support level. EJ - Bias up.

EUR GU EJ 18 Feb EUR - Weekly closed a doji, D closed a doji at the Dec '12 highs. Not decisive for buys or sells. Perhaps just treading water whilst the G20, G7 meetings were on. 4hr had a double bottom with divergence but remains on lower high. 1hr on lower high. Bias down with potential move up from the support level. GU - Weekly had a 3 bar reversal closing well below the previous 2 closes. D closed a doji. 4hr showed divergence for move up, still on lower high. We are very close to the lows. Bias down with potential move up from the support level. EJ - D closed a hammer RSI above 50 level. 1hr flow higher high higher low, bias up.

4hr charts - 2 or 3 trades a week Based on RSI crossing its signal line, as a general rule the 4hr chart will give 2 or 3 signals a week. Perhaps 4 if its particularly choppy. Based on this very simple observation could you use this information in your trading plan entering from 15 min chart? Don't use RSI cross? How about price opening one side and closing the other side of 8lwma? Together with some of the most basic trading concepts and you can add to your plan. Did the 4hr give a double top/bottom, higher low/lower high, stall at a certain level for some time (is there a support/resistance level or W pivot), revert to trend? If you are already in a trade and 4 hr then signals could you stay in longer?

Why post these summaries? To show that firstly you don't always get things right. Secondly to show that you don't have to actually get trades every day to get good results. Third to show that even if you have a view you can go against that view with solid reasons. In fact due to time constraints and illness we only traded for 2 days this week but the results have been extremely good.

EJ The week in review. 15th Feb The view from the morning of 15 Feb was: EJ - These charts looking the cleanest of the 3. There are the Apr '11 highs that can act as support however bias down. There was no follow through lower and the previous support level 123 held. There was 1hr positive divergence.

EJ The week in review. 14th feb I was unable to post a view that morning. The EJ D had no follow through higher for the 2 days prior. The 1hr shooting star and lower high were straight forward sell opportunities.

The view from the morning of 13 Feb was: EJ - The positive close on D 11th could not follow through higher. We are still below D RSI 50 level and below 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr now on lower high flow. Bias down. London pushed price up from the W pivot 124.95 to W R1/previous resistance level 126.50. We had a 3 bar reversal (1hr close below previous 2 candle closes) to get back into days view.

The view from the morning of 12 Feb was: EJ - D positive close, bias up. There was a move up in line with bias that might have been tricky to get into based on the 1hr candles. Price moved up to the 1/4 Feb highs, W R1 combination and stalled for almost 3 hours with an evening star pattern and 1hr divergence. If bias is up resistance level, W pivot, divergence and 3 hour stall would be sufficient reason to go against the previous bias. If I recall the move down was a news reaction and therefore could have been difficult to get into. Perhaps one of those days.

EJ The week in review. 11 Feb 1hr higher low after divergence We have been heavily focused on EJ lately. With that in mind I'll go through the early morning days view and see if it played out or reasons to go against the view. The view from the morning of 11 Feb was: EJ - D neg close at the 123.30 support level. We have stalled here for 20 hours and there was buying during previous London and US sessions. Failure to go lower will set up buying opportunities. From London open there were no 1hr candles that set up a sell. There was positive divergence for a buy on 1h and a higher low after the divergence. The 20hrs of support at W M2 held.

The 4hr charts to once again highlight how price is attracted to the W pivots. The red lines are some of the historical SR levels. EJ.

The 4hr charts to once again highlight how price is attracted to the W pivots. The red lines are some of the historical SR levels. GU.

The 4hr charts to once again highlight how price is attracted to the W pivots. The red lines are some of the historical SR levels. EUR.

This is the 15 min chart. Just above 50 psych level is M4, then W S2 and Y's high all within a few pips of each other. We had view of scalp buys, bias down until D proves otherwise. 15 min double top at that cluster of resistance levels. See the arrow down in the box. Thats the pa 3 bar reversal i.e. it means the candle immediately before the arrow closed lower that the 2 previous candle closes. Exactly as its meant to, a good early signal back into the down bias. Did not get this just showing what we are looking for.

15 Feb EUR - D closed with a lower wick, we are below 50 on RSI but there is divergence. 4hr is on a lower high lower low at the moment, RSI below 50. Bias down. GU - Very little follow through down after the 13th close, below 50 RSI but showing divergence. 4hr flow lower high lower low and also showing RSI divergence. RSI crossed up giving chance for scalp buys. Having said that bias down until D signals otherwise i.e. the 4hr viewed at the moment as a counter trend scalp opportunity. EJ - These charts looking the cleanest of the 3. There are the Apr '11 highs that can act as support however bias down.

Recap 14 Feb EUR - A D lower high shooting star set up a move lower. Asian session moved down strongly and this continued into London morning session. GU - An engulfing negative close had very little follow through with the 1.55 support level/W M3 providing support. EJ - A D doji hinted at failure again to go higher after the positive close on 11th. A 1hr shooting star then a 3 bar reversal set up the move of the day.

3rd trade of the day. A little short on time so no major explanations. 1st trade was a dble top on 1hr to set up, 2 and 3 were just running with the days trend.