Snow Dog

EUR GU EJ 2 Apr EUR - D closed positive and we have crossed the 8lwma and RSI its signal line. 4hr made a higher low yesterday and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. We have stopped at the Dec lows/W pivot potential resistance level, the Asian session struggled to break Fri's high which is not uncommon. 1hr is showing negative divergence. Can go either way today, at the moment our 4hr and 1hr suggest flow up. This can be a rally in downtrend but as flow is up at the moment we need our counter trend rules to kick in. We are at a resistance level/W pivot, have 1hr divergence and looks like we have a 5hr stall so the potential is there for a sell. GU - Very similar picture to EUR D closed positive, 4hr and 1hr flow up, 1hr negative divergence. Stopped at the Jun low resistance level. can go either way today. EJ - D neg close below RSI 50 level. 4hr 1hr flow down. Bias down.

Recap 28 Mar EUR - D negative close, 4hr flow lower high lower low, no divergence, bias down. Result: Move down in line with bias around London open. Previous days low held, decent bounce higher. GU - Small D negative close back below our 8lwma and RSI crossed lower, hardly a strong close though. 4hr lower high lower low in play, no divergence, bias down. Result: Did move down but no real follow through lower from the previous weak D close. EJ - D negative close, 4hr lower high lower low with a bounce from the weeks low. Bias down. Result: A nice move down around London open in line with bias. A big doji on 1hr with divergence at the recent lows signaled a move up.

EJ popped up to 120.75 a clear SR level if you look at 1hr from 26 Mar to now. Sold the 15 min lh little/no lower wick to get back into down bias, entry 120.48. Exit near recent lows/W pivot +60.

EUR GU EJ 28 Mar Not sure if the big boys will have today as their effective quarter end with the holidays coming up. A performance bonus based on profits could be improved if positions are stretched at the close. Would have to think for EUR and GU that would be more downside. EUR - D negative close, 4hr flow lower high lower low, no divergence, bias down. GU - Small negative close back below our 8lwma and RSI crossed lower, hardly a strong close though. 4hr lower high lower low in play, no divergence, bias down. EJ - D negative close, 4hr lower high lower low with a bounce from the weeks low. Bias down.

Recap 27 Mar, EUR bounce from key level EUR - D doji after the Cyprus mess the market calmed down. 4hr on lower high approaching W M1 1.2831 that provided support. The reaction higher this week was nowhere near as big a reaction as last week, so whilst we have potential to bounce bias down. Result: The idea of the weaker bounce from a key level, bounce up in this case, played out. W M1 failed down bias played out nicely. GU - D closed a doji. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Support potentially at 1.5130. Bias down. Result: Down bias played out. EJ - Inside bar positive D close, upper trend line not yet tested. Approaching W M2 122.00 level that provided support recently. The 4hr has had a higher low but still on lower high lower low. Bias down from the key level. Result: The upper resistance levels held, down bias played out.

EUR GU EJ 27 Mar EUR - D doji after the Cyprus mess the market calmed down. 4hr on lower high approaching W M1 1.2831 that provided support. The reaction higher this week was nowhere near as big a reaction as last week, so whilst we have potential to bounce bias down. GU - D closed a doji. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Support potentially at 1.5130. Bias down. EJ - Inside bar positive D close, upper trend line not yet tested. Approaching W M2 122.00 level that provided support recently. The 4hr has had a higher low but still on lower high lower low. Bias down from the key level.

EUR GU EJ 26 Mar We will have to see what the further reaction is to the decision to have private investors in Cyprus having bank deposits over 100,000 Euro's take a massive hit to save the banks? Surely a further flight to safety if you have money in a country with a risky economy i.e. southern Europe. EUR - D engulfing close that couldn't break below the March lows (after a 170 pip run down no problem there). Trend resumed, bias down. GU - D negative close that could not get a cross of RSI's signal line or the 8 lwma. A negative close on 1hr would be another low high. Whilst the D candle is not convincing 1hr bias down for now. EJ - D engulfing negative close. 4hr on lower high lower low, 1hr had a higher low in Asian session overnight. That seems to be failing on the candle currently open. A D candle as good as that should follow through lower even if not at the pace of yesterday. Bias down.

Recap 25 Mar, EUR GU lower high following divergence EUR - Approaching 1.3050 W R1 to close the gap. D positive close Friday. 1hr flow higher high higher low but we do have negative sell divergence. We can react lower once the gap is closed, if not then the next target will be W R2 1.3112- W R1 1.3164 the body/wick highs from Sep/Oct '12. Result: 1.3050/W R1 held, a double top going into London open. The 1hr lower high that followed after the divergence played out perfectly. GU - We are at a key resistance level going back to Jan and May (easier to see on W charts). 1hr negative sell divergence. We can react lower from here, failing that next target higher the high from 22 Feb W R1 at 1.5306. Result: The resistance level held. 1hr lower high going into London open that followed after the divergence played out perfectly. EJ - Fri closed a doji, on that candle we are below RSI 50 level and below the 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Bias up next target the Mar highs/W R1 124.28. Result: Bias up did not play out. The 1hr lower high before and after London open saw the flow change and EJ followed the EUR

EUR GU EJ 25 Mar EUR - Approaching 1.3050 W R1 to close the gap. D positive close Friday. 1hr flow higher high higher low but we do have negative sell divergence. We can react lower once the gap is closed, if not then the next target will be W R2 1.3112- W R1 1.3164 the body/wick highs from Sep/Oct '12. GU - We are at a key resistance level going back to Jan and May (easier to see on W charts). 1hr negative sell divergence. We can react lower from here, failing that next target higher the high from 22 Feb W R1 at 1.5306. EJ - Fri closed a doji, on that candle we are below RSI 50 level and below the 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Bias up next target the Mar highs/W R1 124.28.

Read the thread, you'll see that 99% of trades posted are live charts with the trade buy/sell line there for all to see. There are some basics around certain times of the day that happen regularly. 30 mins before to 30 mins after London open there is often a reversal. Breaking out of the immediate prior Asian range only to reverse and go the other way. Pre/early US session there is often a weak hesitation candle on 1hr that fails only for US to continue the direction set by London. Don't confuse this with strong engulfing closes or news reversals. London close reversals occur regularly. None of these happen 100% of the time but they are regular enough to build a trading plan around. You have to research the times of the day you trade and see for yourself. You should be doing that regardless of the trading method you will use.

Recap 22 Mar EUR - Bias down with potential to bounce up from support. Result: Bounce up from support/W M1 combination. GU - Bias up but watch for reaction lower at resistance levels mentioned. Result: Bias up played out. EJ - I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows. Result: Bounce up from the lows/W S3 combination.

4hr charts with W pivots Support and resistance levels and W pivots, their importance yet again very clear.

EUR GU EJ 22 Mar EUR - D negative close back into trend RSI below 50 level, daily lower high lower low flow intact, price stopped at support level. 4 hr strong rejection of the W S1 level 1.2954 with upper wicks. W M1 provided support during the day at 1.2894. Bias down with potential to bounce up from support. GU - D positive close at the top of the recent range also recent resistance level 1.5160, RSI above 50 level/ma, D higher low formed. 4 hr move up stalled at the resistance level from late Feb/early March 1.5180-1.5200 with large upper wicks. RSI flat but above 50 level. 1 hr higher flow intact but move up appears to be weakening. Bias up but watch for reaction lower at resistance levels mentioned. EJ - D negative close couldn’t push below yesterdays low. RSI down and below 8lwma. 4 hr showing wide range higher high higher low flow, today bouncing off the W M0 with decent lower wicks. There is lots of conflicting information but we cannot keep chopping up and down forever. I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows.

Recap 21 Mar EUR - View was: D closed positive but did not break the upper resistance level 1.2980/1.3000. 4hr lots of upper wicks so the upper resistance level W S1 proving an issue still, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 1hr negative divergence at yesterdays highs and we seem to be heading for a lower high following divergence. So much contradictory information that we can go either way. No bias for today. A lower fall on 1hr going into London open, after that chopped around in a small range. GU - View was: D closed a spinning top. 4hr negative divergence and clearly showing the range we are in contained by support/resistance and W pivots. No bias. A higher low on 1hr going into London open might have been difficult to trade with the upper wicks. EJ - View was: D 3 bar reversal positive close. 4hr now appears to be on a higher high. With the way things have been of late no bias and will be watching EUR and UJ for guidance and looking for trade rules to guide on either trend or counter trend moves. The 1 day up 1 day down continued. 4hr evening star pattern at W M2, 1hr lower high into London open signaled the fall.

EUR GU EJ 21 Mar EUR - D closed positive but did not break the upper resistance level 1.2980/1.3000. Ralph Shell has posted an article (see blog) and he is looking at the weekend gap to get closed with a move to 1.3050. Anyway D RSI has crossed but below 50 level, we could not break the D 8lwma. 4hr lots of upper wicks so the upper resistance level W S1 proving an issue still, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 1hr negative divergence at yesterdays highs and we seem to be heading for a lower high following divergence. So much contradictory information that we can go either way. No bias for today. GU - D closed a spinning top. 4hr negative divergence and clearly showing the range we are in contained by support/resistance and W pivots. No bias. EJ - D 3 bar reversal positive close. 4hr now appears to be on a higher high. With the way things have been of late no bias and will be watching EUR and UJ for guidance and looking for trade rules to guide on either trend or counter trend moves.

Recap 20 Mar, EUR higher low following divergence EUR - View was: D negative close below the previous low. 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. The down bias never played out. That means we are going counter to the D trend so we have to assess if those rules are in play. We had a D support level at 1.2878. It looked like that was broken lower but that move struggled. We had 4hr positive divergence. Then there were 1hr higher lows going into Frankfurt open and again after London open, higher lows following divergence normally a good set up. The 1hr did show the short term flow had flipped to buys. GU - View was: After the strong push up on 14th no follow through higher. Resistance at W M3 1.5143 and below at 1.5070. Bias down. Down bias did play out until the news provided some wild swings again. EJ - View was: Similar picture to EUR, bias down. Very similar picture to EUR.

Sold GU, partly on the strong conviction of how 4hr looked, at 1.5081 out +31. Evening star pattern, 3 bar reversal, reject of move above RN in line with bias.

EUR GU EJ 20 Mar EUR - D negative close below the previous low. 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. GU - After the strong push up on 14th no follow through higher. Resistance at W M3 1.5143 and below at 1.5070. Bias down. EJ - Similar picture to EUR, bias down.

Recap 19 Mar EUR - View was: Positive D close to close the gap to Fri's lows, still below RSI 50 level. 4hr is still on lower high after the gap closed price went sideways, 50% retrace, still below RSI 50 level. No bias can go either way today. 50% retrace held, negative close lower high 3 bar reversal on 4hr set up move down. GU - View was: D closed a small range doji. 4hr has now formed a lower high. A base has formed around 1.5070 and on the upside W M3 at 1.5143 and the recent high just above. No bias can go either way. It did with some wild swings on 1hr. EJ - View was: Positive D close to fill the gap. We are at W M2/last weeks lows/62% retrace. After a D close like yesterday view would normally be bias up but in view of the above we could easily react lower. The fib/W pivot/resistance level held, move lower set up by a 4hr shooting star.

EUR GU EJ 19 Mar EUR - Positive D close to close the gap to Fri's lows, still below RSI 50 level. 4hr is still on lower high after the gap closed price went sideways, 50% retrace, still below RSI 50 level. No bias can go either way today. GU - D closed a small range doji. 4hr has now formed a lower high. A base has formed around 1.5070 and on the upside W M3 at 1.5143 and the recent high just above. No bias can go either way. EJ - Positive D close to fill the gap. We are at W M2/last weeks lows/62% retrace. After a D close like yesterday view would normally be bias up but in view of the above we could easily react lower.

Recap 18 Mar EUR - View was: We will have to see how the market reacts to Cyprus bailout news. It would not be unusual for the gap to be closed before falling suggesting a move up to 1.3000. For now we stopped at the Dec '12 lows/W M1. There could well be further flight to the $ as a safe haven. No bias as we could close gap or just as easily fall. Gap was filled. GU - View was: D shooting star lower high. 4hr looks like it could have a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.5065. 1hr chart, Asian session could not break the lows. 4hr has signaled a sell short term bias down. If the current candle closes positive that will be a higher low to continue positive flow. Small range no follow through. EJ - View was: Same story with EUR. Close gap move higher or continue lower. We'll just have to see which way the market takes us. Gap was filled.

EUR GU EJ 18 Mar EUR - We will have to see how the market reacts to Cyprus bailout news. It would not be unusual for the gap to be closed before falling suggesting a move up to 1.3000. For now we stopped at the Dec '12 lows/W M1. There could well be further flight to the $ as a safe haven. No bias as we could close gap or just as easily fall. GU - D shooting star lower high. 4hr looks like it could have a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.5065. 1hr chart, Asian session could not break the lows. 4hr has signaled a sell short term bias down. If the current candle closes positive that will be a higher low to continue positive flow. EJ - Same story with EUR. Close gap move higher or continue lower. We'll just have to see which way the market takes us.

Charts for above post with the divergences!!:roll eyes:

4hr charts W pivots lower highs/higher lows following divergence As usual I am posting the 4hr charts to show how important the W pivots and support and resistance levels are. As is typical there were only 2 or 3 decent moves for the week. I have also added the divergences and when a higher low or lower high follows divergence price action is confirming and they are usually good set ups to trade.

Recap 15 Mar EUR - View was: Divergence showing on D, 4hr and 1hr saw a move up and positive D close. The W pivots have been strong containers of price this week. 4hr at the moment trying for a higher low on the current open candle. Bias up but there is the potential to reject an upper trend line and W pivot. Moved up in line with bias and had a pullback from R2/W R1. GU - View was: Strong D close, 4hr had higher lows after divergence that played out. 1hr on higher high higher low flow also. D upper trend line broken. We stopped at W R1 on an 85/15 trade. Bias up and would like to see yesterdays high break higher as there is always the chance of test of back of trend line or reversal back to down trend. Moved up in line with bias to R1 in London session and back down to the days open in US session. EJ - View was: D closed a small hammer. 4hr on higher low. Bias up. Moved up in line with bias until the highs over the last week were reached and fell strongly.