Snow Dog

London close trade. Set up and triggered on Eur. I am relatively new to this method taking profits early, 16 pips today, again though a winning trade with virtually no draw down. I am quite amazed as to how successfully these trades play out and the 90% winning trades claim is certainly true in my experience so far.

This higher low just above 4300 was a 100% system trade. 1hr up, 15 min positive close higher low little/no upper wick but I couldn't take it. At that stage price had already exceeded the 5 day ATR. If we had a bigger portion of the move fine then I would continue to take system trades, however we only had a fraction of move from Mrs V's trade and I was not prepared to risk that. 100 pips up I'll risk 15 on a system trade when ATR exceeded, less than 30 up then I won't. That's a rule we work to.

I was tempted to take this one for an 85/15 trade but with US news in about 30 minutes I left it. The news took it up but you can never be sure which way it will go if you are relying on news.

In some ways a let down today. I was not attentive enough and missed the system higher low at 4145. Good support level, 15 minute positive close and perfect 5 min higher low little/no upper wick. I was out and Mrs V got the higher low at 4175 after the 1hr positive close. She didn't enter again.

I missed out on the earlier gu, eur trades as we were just too late getting set up, the 2b evening star pattern at the 6375 high. Then had lots of internet (not platform) problems so would not even had chance to consider the move up from 6325. News pushed price lower with a small retrace to 25 level S became R. Set up classic lh, wait 20 mins try again, 15/85 trade. 5 min lh little/no lower wick, exit just above 85 level. Mrs V happy, so am I.

A friend of mine sent this to me, free webinar http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=M9jAa&m=JDQbVuNTlBL8RL&b=B7K.Mh99Uygbuz1yvM3gpg I've no idea how good it is just downloading it now. 124MB.

This higher low pattern in Asian session when I was asleep. Pretty much three perfect wait 20 minutes and try again higher lows. The middle arrow up was also an 85/15 trade.

I forgot to add the above chart is a classic 85/15 trade. Perfect higher low as discussed. Often when gu (also eur) is moving up through 85 level it will push through RN + - 15. The opposite is also true when falling through 15 will push to 85. Whether it is big boys taking out some stops I don't know. I trade them with entries from hl/lh's as usual, sometimes I'll exit a portion at the RN just in case it stops and doesn't go through.

I was out at the shops just showing these set ups. I am sure I would have been happy to buy, despite the neg 1hr, to follow the 15 min up. Morning star on 15 min (down candle, doji, pos candle) would have had me tempted, left arrow up. If we missed that there was another 100% system trade pos 1hr above its 8 lwma, pos 15 min, 5 min hl little/no upper wick but I like I said I was out. Red lines show where 1hr closed. Ma's confirming nicely. Perfect set up though.

Ralph Shell has submitted a new article on COT, you can see it at link on previous page.

2 possibilities this am. Higher low buy 5 min little/no upper wick. 1hr positive close above 8 lwma, 15 min positive close. 100% system trade. The sell didn't get that one. 1hr closed with an upper wick, 15 min upper wick, doji then shooting star. 5 min lower high little/no lower wick, we passed on it.

Cheers mslk I'll keep posting and show the 85/15 trade idea soon.

I have posted numerous times over the last couple of pages specifically ideas on wait 20 mins and try again and key levels will they hold or fail. These are just general trading ideas that I have picked up and the entries are always based on higher lows and lower highs. If they are of value I'll keep on adding little trading ideas that I have from time to time. One that immediately springs to mind is the 85/15 trade. If there is some feedback on this that'll be great.

Key levels will they hold or fail 2. There are numerous key levels on any chart. For example previous support and resistance levels, pivots, round numbers, fib's. The more important the level the bigger the reaction should be. There are some very good traders out there that can identify and trade these key levels. I look to exit trades at key levels and then look for a reaction. As an example if a certain price caused a 200 pip move previously and comes back hits and moves 40, hits again and moves 20 (hopefully you've been in all the trades in direction of trend). Those smaller bounces away from the key level are usually pretty good indications that the key level will fail. Nothing works 100% (as previously mentioned and price will do what it wants) but apart from the hope that we will have been in the moves (trading higher lows and lower highs) to the key levels, we look at the size of bounces. If the bounces are getting smaller we'll look for the right candles to see if that key level will fail.

Key levels will they hold or fail. I wasn't in front of computer for this one. EJ almost gets to 106, and bounces some 70 pips. Then it falls to 25 level and the bounces get smaller and smaller. Smaller bounces from a level is a high prob signal that the level will fail. When the right set up occurs, 1hr down, 15 min down, 5 min lh with little/low lower wick on set up candle there's a good chance its going to break through. If you got in earlier bounces and got out keep going if bounces are smaller.

Chart for above post.

1hr shooting star, 15 min upper wick doji. 5 min lower high shooting star little/no lower wick. Target is 6250 but we are struggling here 6260 area and with the previous chop around 6250 banked for +28.

I tried including an indi that shows other time frames on the 5 min chart. What looked correct on my charts came out squashed up on the saved screenshot. Anyway the chart confirming entry and a chart showing an arrow that you can actually make out the candles.

If you look at above post its another wait 20 mins (well OK 25 mins) and try again move.

Fairly straight forward trade. 1hr headed up we are above its 8 lwma, 15 min had a small inside bar but this 5 min hl had taken that out to upside. 15 min had good angle up on ma's. 5 min higher low, little/no upper wick after price pulls back to ma's. Move up from daily pivot/25 psych level, high volume point of control area.

Wait 20 mins and try again 2. There are exceptions of course. When price moves aggressively away from a moving average (chart has 8 lwma and 20 ema) due to news etc a longer period of consolidation may be required. The gu 15 min chart shows that idea clearly. When price consolidates back to the ma's and gives a good candle (solid engulfing close little/no lower wick or shooting stars) the moves down continue. The x's show the areas where quick moves away from the 8 lwma needs consolidation far exceeding 20 mins before continuing.

Just one of those things I have picked up. Wait 20 minutes and try again (please don't be literal and if its not exactly 20 mins pass the trade). When price is moving in an orderly manner its amazing how often there is another hl/lh trade 20 mins or so later. The x's show the peaks and the arrows the hl trade + - 20 mins later.

An interesting article here by Ralph Shell Euro Bulls suffer set back is there more to come http://www.cashbackforex.com/?aid=112 then go to articles.

Our 2nd trade of the day. 15 min did have a hammer after a positive close but no follow through. We then had an evening star pattern at the 4 hr SR area at 6280. With a trade in the bank and 5 day ATR exceeded Mrs V requested we bank +30, done.

Is it so long since I last posted. Nice lower high, out portion +22 and bal +26 when low from 19 May held.