Snow Dog

EUR GU EJ 24 Apr EUR - D negative close lower high 3 bar reversal, below 8lwma and below 50 level. 4hr lower high lower low flow in tact. Obviously the buyers at 1.30 may not have finished yet so care with entry required as always. We have W S1 at 1.2967 and this is the general area from Feb/Mar where there was also support. Bias down. GU - D closed negative below 8 lwma and below RSI 50 level. The 1.52 level is still providing support but we did make a new low (with divergence on 4hr) and a lower high (1.5286 so regard divergence as having played out). There is the idea of what doesn't go down will go up but for now until price action confirms otherwise retaining down bias. EJ - D closed again with a big lower wick bouncing off the Feb high. I am having difficulty reading EJ again today and can only suggest the trading basics of trend and support/resistance levels (i.e. trading the reaction to those levels).

Recap 23 Apr EUR - D shooting star followed by a hammer, within the identified support/resistance levels.Overall bias down but with the support level 1.3000 holding would look elsewhere until the range breaks. Result: Moved up to the W pivot 1.3084 and fell quickly in line with the bias but with a 60 pip entry candle not a set up we would trade. GU - D positive close but again not very inspiring. 4hr positive divergence at the lows but that could have played out. 4hr evening star pattern suggests move lower. 4hr still on lower high lower low. Bias down until flow can switch positive. Result: Down bias played out until 1hr lower wick clearly rejecting the move below W M2 1.5222. EJ - D negative close with a lower wick. 4hr, 1hr flow on lower high lower low. Bias down until flow switches positive. Result: Down bias played out until the Feb highs were reached and after approx 5 hours moved up.

EUR GU EJ 22 Apr EUR - The support/resistance levels 1.3000-1.3120 are still containing price. 1hr 50 ema flat signaling a general sideways range. GU - Lower high lower low flow 1hr, bias down. EJ - Higher high higher low flow 1hr, bias up.

Out of time this morning, 4hr charts with pivots and weekly charts on the blog. Some interesting things brewing on those weekly charts.

Recap 19 Apr EUR - D closed a shooting star off the 1.3000 support level which is proving a tough nut to crack. The bounce up was not significant enough to change my down bias with obvious chance of buyers at the support level. Result: Up and down day with little follow through. GU - D closed positive but a weak close, still below 8lwma and RSI not crossed higher. 4hr just closed positive so strictly speaking not on lower higher lower low. We are above 50 RSI on all 3 time frames so bias up but a move lower would be no surprise. Result: Up and down day but much cleaner that EUR's 1hr chart. Move up in line with 4hr higher low 3 bar reversal. Move down from the W M3 pivot/general resistance area identified on D charts. EJ - D close still unconvincing. 4hr positive so would expect some move up. A reversal down again would be no surprise. Result: Move up as per bias but after London open no follow through.

Why recap previous days price action? I have been asked why do I do recaps of previous days trading. The answer is very simple. It absolutely tells me if my take on trading is working for me or if it needs tweaking. In a nutshell, trade with the trend until counter trend rules apply. Hopefully its showing that you actually can get a good idea of the market before it happens (daily view is done a couple of hours before London open) and that (news spikes excluded) trades can be expected or taken with more confidence. Helps with understanding the subtleties that different pairs have, size of candles to avoid, times to trade etc etc. Please see the GU recap below. I don't have know what GU is going to do. IF it is going to fall I know from my D charts that we have struggled to break above 1.5400 for 2 weeks. I have no clue if its turning where but the W pivot, W M3 or in this case R2 just below W M3 are good places. So when you get this kind of lower high over 4hrs a sell would not be a complete surprise.

EUR GU EJ 19 Apr EUR - D closed a shooting star off the 1.3000 support level which is proving a tough nut to crack. The bounce up was not significant enough to change my down bias with obvious chance of buyers at the support level. GU - D closed positive but a weak close, still below 8lwma and RSI not crossed higher. 4hr just closed positive so strictly speaking not on lower higher lower low. We are above 50 RSI on all 3 time frames so bias up but a move lower would be no surprise. EJ - D close still unconvincing. 4hr positive so would expect some move up. A reversal down again would be no surprise.

Recap 18 Apr EUR - D closed negative at the 1.3000 support level (Feb-Apr '12). We have W S1 at 1.3000 also. The EUR can easily go sideways for a week before a good run. This range is bigger than EUR's typical sideways moves. 1hr did have a higher low after divergence move up during Asian session. We can go up further from 1.3000 but my bias down. The D candle should follow through lower and the move up through W M3 and the 1.3125 resistance level was strongly rejected yesterday. W pivot 1.3071 and resistance level/W M3 1.3123 could provide sell areas. Result: The 1.3000 support level held, the big engulfing 1hr close had no follow through higher. GU - D engulfing close, 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. Result: The move down stopped at the previous days low and had a decent bounce. EJ - Has me a little stumped at the moment. D closed a doji, its not clear if 4hr is on a higher low or a lower high. No bias. Result: Lots of 1hr lower wicks at London open saw move up, then became quite choppy.

EUR GU EJ 18 Apr EUR - D closed negative at the 1.3000 support level (Feb-Apr '12). We have W S1 at 1.3000 also. The EUR can easily go sideways for a week before a good run. This range is bigger than EUR's typical sideways moves. 1hr did have a higher low after divergence move up during Asian session. We can go up further from 1.3000 but my bias down. The D candle should follow through lower and the move up through W M3 and the 1.3125 resistance level was strongly rejected yesterday. W pivot 1.3071 and resistance level/W M3 1.3123 could provide sell areas. GU - D engulfing close, 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. EJ - Has me a little stumped at the moment. D closed a doji, its not clear if 4hr is on a higher low or a lower high. No bias.

EUR GU EJ 17 Apr EUR - The previously identified support level above 1.3000/W M2 1.3038 held. D higher low engulfing close should follow through higher. We have stopped at the Sept highs 1.3070 area and there are two W pivots to contend with. Also the over sized D candles sometimes don't follow through, should 4hr signal lower with an engulfing negative close after 3 upper wicks would flip bias lower. Bias up with potential to go lower. GU - The identified lower support level held. D positive close still constrained by the immediate resistance level and W M3 1.5374, higher high higher low flow still in tact. 4hr appears to close to completing 3 candles with upper wicks rejecting move up. Bias up, we can move lower from the upper resistance levels. EJ - The evening star pattern followed through lower reaching the 125.60 support level. D then closed positive, 4hr flow up. Bias up.

EUR GU EJ 15 Apr EUR - The 3 days last week where we could not move higher means we are in a range roughly between W M2 1.3038 and W M3 1.3123. 4hr has signaled lower so if the W pivot fails would expect a move down to W M2/the lows of the last few days. GU - Moved up to the identified resistance level (see yesterdays blog post), 1.5383 during Asian session and sold off strongly. We'll see if the move below the W pivot 1.5328 can hold. If the current 4hr closes above the W pivot with a long wick that would suggest a false break. If it does go lower targets will be W M2 and W S1 the general areas of the last 4hr higher lows from last week. EJ - Asian session had a strong move down and we reached the identified area 127.70-20 high from February (see yesterdays blog post). After such strong moves early in Asian session only time will tell if London open is sideways. The flow certainly switched lower but having reached the support level so quickly we can only watch and see the reaction.

EUR GU EJ 12 Apr EUR - D closed positive with an upper wick, above 8lwma. Still held by the Mar high resistance level. 4hr is still showing negative divergence whilst managing to stay on higher high higher low flow, seems to struggle above W R1. A 4hr negative close would flip that over giving a lower high and most likely crosses of 8lwma and RSI. Yesterday 1hr had a double top with divergence, then still made a higher low. No bias can go either way. GU - D closed positive but we are in the area of the July '12 lows. 4hr higher high higher low flow but showing negative divergence. We'll see how this 4hr closes, potential double top forming. EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr still making higher highs at W M4, negative divergence, moves higher seem to be running out of steam. RSI has crossed lower and we are moving below the 8lwma. Bias up until 4hr can give a sell signal.

Recap 11 Apr EUR - D closed a shooting star, above the 8lwma, a relatively small range day so whilst this can move lower not a major reaction. 4hr lower with the divergence but is still on a higher high higher low. 1hr chart had a move down on the lower high after divergence. No bias can go either way today 4hr/1hr flows conflicting. I suspect up though but either way good candles will lead the way. Result: Clean candles no upper wicks in early move before London open. Some upper wicks after London open, very smooth higher low wave on 15 min. GU - D closed at the upper end of range for the past few days. 4hr still making higher lows. Weaker bounces from a key level often sees that level fail. Bias up but obviously this key level can hold. Result: Bias up played out, if you missed this early move then there wasn't another entry on 15 min. EJ - Bias up. Result: Bias up did play out in a choppy manner.

Not sure what days trade this refers to?

EUR GU EJ11 Apr EUR - D closed a shooting star, above the 8lwma, a relatively small range day so whilst this can move lower not a major reaction. 4hr lower with the divergence but is still on a higher high higher low. 1hr chart had a move down on the lower high after divergence. No bias can go either way today 4hr/1hr flows conflicting. I suspect up though but either way good candles will lead the way. GU - D closed at the upper end of range for the past few days. 4hr still making higher lows. Weaker bounces from a key level often sees that level fail. Bias up but obviously this key level can hold. EJ - Bias up.

EUR GU EJ 10 Apr EUR - D positive close at/approaching the levels where rallies in downtrend sold off in March. This move up is much more significant. 4hr divergence continues, paused at W R1. 1hr higher high higher low is in tact, negative sell divergence. Bias up but we have key levels in play, divergences so there is potential for fall should 1hr close negative. GU - D closed positive but could not break the previous 2 day highs. 4hr higher high higher low, W M3 approaching. Bias up with potential to fall from the key levels. EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr clearly showing the struggle to go higher at the W pivot, negative divergence. 4hr hammer then positive close stopped the divergence playing out yesterday. Bias up until price action confirms any potential sell.

Recap 9 Apr EUR - Bias up, potential to fall with the 4hr divergence in particular if a move up on 1hr fails giving a double top /lower high to switch flow down. Result: 4hr hammer stopped the move down. The move up was difficult to trade with several 1hr upper wicks, a nice hammer with little/no upper wick after US news did allow a trade. GU - Bias up but we'll have to see the reaction higher from here, a failure to move up would give a lower high and reverse the flow. Result: Lots of lower wicks on 1hr before/after London open put stopped any move down and up bias played out. EJ - D positive close. 4hr showing divergence and has gone virtually straight up from 119-129. Would be looking for any retrace lower as dip in uptrend. Bias up. Result: 1hr hammer at London open set the stage for up bias to play out. We saw a shooting star immediately after the hammer on 1hr (one of our dreaded candle set ups) and then several hours of chop followed. Took several hours for a nice 1hr candle set up which had captured most of the move.

EUR GU EJ 9 Apr EUR - D closed positive but within the 1.3038 highs of 5 Apr. Asian session broke higher through this level. 4hr flow higher high higher low but showing sell divergence. We'll see if the break above this resistance levels holds. Bias up, potential to fall with the 4hr divergence in particular if a move up on 1hr fails giving a double top /lower high to switch flow down. GU - D closed negative inside bar, still above 8lwma. D is still on higher high higher low. On 5th we shot through the area of the 1.5268 resistance level on news. 4hr RSI did cross signal line lower yesterday to signal a scalp sell but we are still on higher high higher low. Bias up but we'll have to see the reaction higher from here, a failure to move up would give a lower high and reverse the flow. EJ - D positive close. 4hr showing divergence and has gone virtually straight up from 119-129. Would be looking for any retrace lower as dip in uptrend. Bias up.

Recap 8 Apr EUR - Back to the support/resistance level from Feb-Apr '12 and Jan '13. W candle closed positive close to the previous weeks high. D closed positive with an upper wick. 4hr flow higher high higher low, RSI has crossed lower. D suggest up, there is a resistance level that we can react lower to and the COT data shows the big boys are bearish on EUR. Can go either way today. Result: Large engulfing hammer off the Asian lows started move up. GU - W closed positive hammer and we seem to be through the Dec and May '12 low resistance levels. D positive close, 4hr flow higher. Bias up. Result: Up bias did not play out with W M3 1.5348 holding for about 16 hours. Fell to the W Pivot 1.5242 and the highs from 25 Mar and 2 Apr. EJ - W engulfing close. D positive close, 4hr flow one way up. Bias up. Result: Up bias played out.

EUR EJ GU 8 Apr No point in doing a recap as the big move was NFP related. All 3 pairs did have retraces to some extent before the big news moves up. EUR - Back to the support/resistance level from Feb-Apr '12 and Jan '13. W candle closed positive close to the previous weeks high. D closed positive with an upper wick. 4hr flow higher high higher low, RSI has crossed lower. D suggest up, there is a resistance level that we can react lower to and the COT data shows the big boys are bearish on EUR. Can go either way today. GU - W closed positive hammer and we seem to be through the Dec and May '12 low resistance levels. D positive close, 4hr flow higher. Bias up. EJ - W engulfing close. D positive close, 4hr flow one way up. Bias up.

EUR GU EJ 5 April No point in doing a recap for yesterday as the moves up were all related to news, interest rates/central bank announcements. NFP today. Add to that D over sized candles that often do not follow through immediately, lots of reasons to be careful this morning. EUR - D engulfing close should follow through higher. If this is a change in the market the big boys will want to move the market lower to offload some of their short positions, so a D over sized candle could be followed by a one or two indecisive candles. Only time will tell if this is a true turn. Would not be surprised then to see a retrace lower. No bias. GU - Same as EUR. EJ - 550 pip D candle begging for a retrace. No bias.

EUR GU EJ 4 Apr Interest rate announcements today in UK and EUR, tomorrow NFP. EUR - D closed positive but we could not break above the W pivot/resistance level. 4hr RSI crosses have worked as trades even if the moves have not been significant. Asian session could not take us back up to yesterdays high. No bias we could move lower from the rejection of the W pivot (see 4hr upper wick) or continue up, will need to see good 1hr candles. GU - D closed a doji, 4hr and 1hr seem to be swinging back down. Below 50 RSI level on all time frames so appears to be swinging back lower. EJ - No bias D closed a small doji and there is a clear base at 119. Interest rate decision came out and we just spiked 50 pips, we'll need to see the follow through as to whether this move up fails or not.

Recap 3 Apr EUR - D negative close below 8 lwma and RSI 50 level but hardly a convincing move. 4hr below RSI 50, 1hr flow lower high lower low. We are on the low from Oct '12 bias still lower. Result: 1 Oct low held moved up after 2 x 1hr hammers. GU - D engulfing negative close, 4hr below RSI 50 level, 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. Result: Down bias did not play out, moved up. EJ - D closed a doji, 4hr flow still lower high lower low but lots of lower wicks, 1hr was on higher high higher low flow which seems to have stopped and looking to fail? Not really clear to me what it wants to do, looks like we are forming a triangle on 1hr, no bias. Wait for some clarity. Result: Some decent moves but range bound.

EUR GU EJ 3 Apr EUR - D negative close below 8 lwma and RSI 50 level but hardly a convincing move. 4hr below RSI 50, 1hr flow lower high lower low. We are on the low from Oct '12 bias still lower. GU - D engulfing negative close, 4hr below RSI 50 level, 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. EJ - D closed a doji, 4hr flow still lower high lower low but lots of lower wicks, 1hr was on higher high higher low flow which seems to have stopped and looking to fail? Not really clear to me what it wants to do, looks like we are forming a triangle on 1hr, no bias. Wait for some clarity.

Recap 2 Apr - GU lower high following divergence EUR - We have stopped at the Dec lows/W pivot potential resistance level, the Asian session struggled to break Fri's high which is not uncommon. 1hr is showing negative divergence. Can go either way today, at the moment our 4hr and 1hr suggest flow up. This can be a rally in downtrend but as flow is up at the moment we need our counter trend rules to kick in. We are at a resistance level/W pivot, have 1hr divergence and looks like we have a 5hr stall so the potential is there for a sell. Result: Lower high after divergence played out with a move lower. Lots of lower wicks made entry difficult. GU - Very similar picture to EUR D closed positive, 4hr and 1hr flow up, 1hr negative divergence. Stopped at the Jun low resistance level. can go either way today. Result: Lower high after divergence, move played out with clean candles (no lower wicks). EJ - D neg close below RSI 50 level. 4hr 1hr flow down. Bias down. Result: Down bias did not play out, there was lots of warnings with lower wicks on 4hr and 1hr