GLE%

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I did already Kuky. Look for the charts directly after my original post.

An update. Found weakness in the HOD, easily seen on the hourly, with weak volume. Then, the 5min shows a cute upthrust, followed by increasing spreads and volume downwards. Bombs away! There was a small bounce from morning support on the 5min (posted previously), which then gave the lovely UT on multiple time frames as confirmation of the overall weakness. Nice trade location. All the best, GLE

5Min ES Support line, plus weakening volume on the pullback. Bullish? 1140am the 820 odd level was resistance - previous days highs.

Hey VJ! Thanks for posting. Absolutely - the ND's were sell signals (heads up), and the NS's were buy signals (heads up). I hope my writing didnt infer anything else. You were the first one (to me) to give the idea of selling the low breach of a ND if it occured in the right place, and I have followed that idea religiously since then. To clarify my chart - the programming above was precisely what it stated - all ND/NS/Squats as per definition without regard to anything else. Thats why I gave it a key The NR4 is a good idea for presentation sakes - however I find a lot of ND/NS's come in various shapes and ranges, and so I like to be alert to all of them. Thanks for the NR4 idea!

Two charts, 15min and 5min. Key to my charts - Red X is squat bar - by definition Yellow X is two bars on increasing volume in a row. B is a ND bar - buy - by definition S - is a NS bar - sell - by definition. Red dot on volume, is lowest volume in last 20periods.

hey Kuky, Thanks for sharing. I like your setup - heres why: On the 15min: a) you have a 2 bar Reversal - around 1330pm. - bearish sign. b) its made more bearish by the fact that the HighOfDay (HOD), pokes above the previous globex swing high (at 2am), and then immediately closes down below that swing high. c) market retreats. d) the background is that the rally was done on rather poor volume on the 15min - weak. 5Mins: a) market makes a WRB (wide range bar)14:10. b) we get an upthrust at 14:25 into the weak area displayed on the 15min. it also closes into the WRB - poking above it, and then back down again. c) market falls on increasing spread and volume - giving credence to the short. d) 1445pm, you get the ND, followed by the bar you call number 2. For me, this is a 2bar reversal. e) 1455pm, you get the WRB again, on high volume. market cannot close above that bar at all, rather, within 3 bars we get a close beneath the low of that bar, once again on higher volume. f) 1530pm, we get a high volume test. VSA teaches us that high volume tests will usually result in higher prices momentarily, but come back down to to test that area again. g) 1545pm, we get a WRB on high volume again closing down, next bar closes below the swing low at 1215pm - on fairly high volume for the afternoon session. Continuation sign. Beautiful music!

Thanks Eiger. However, there's one mistake on your annotations which I'd like to point out - its one which I also made. The ND was actually a NoSupply. Therefore, its a further signal of strength and definately something to take heed of - in light of the background.

Heres something on the 5min ES that I saw after the fact, wanted to share it. Sometimes the market sings a beautiful song.

A quick look at todays ES 15min - a) note that the globex session made new highs over friday - bullish hint. Also broke out of bearish channel with ease - another bullish hint. b) it found support nicely at 779 odd - made a 2bar reversal at 9:14am on a 2min chart - right in the area of the 9:08am WRB (wide range bar). On the 3min, at 951am there was a ND into this WRB and 954am a test into the same. c) at 10:03am, a heavy push through supply on heavy volume - and at 10:18am, another strong push up through supply, on heavy volume. Extraordinary day of bullishness - my chart was done just before 4pm, and I see its pushed even higher.

Hi Everyone, Thought it would be a good thing to put Eigers (and others) excellent contributions to practice – as well as start a VSA analysis for the ES – before the next days trading begins (day session). I have attached a 240min all sessions look at the ES – M contract. The anticipation is for the market to go down – but it has found support at a minor swing low. So therefore, we look for VSA signs that it will either bounce from here, or continue the selloff. The following would be key things to look out for: 1)A test to guage if there is selling interest – and for that test to be successful, we need it to occur on low volume. If it is successful, then we will see an immediate rise in the market, from the BB. If that test is on high volume, then we anticipate that that area will be tested again. If the response to this upmove is sluggish, or fails to respond at all, we can clearly take that to be a sign of weakness. A low volume rally would be a further sign of weakness. 2)No supply, absorption volume, stopping volume, and a shakeout, would all be signs of strength, and for the bull move to continue. I am pretty certain that more competent VSA'ers will be able to fine tune - and add to my analysis. Happy Weekend!

Hi Eiger, Thanks for your reply – I have made notes, and have utilised that as my daily order of tasks in the market A few notes: 1)My chart was a 60min chart 2)My horizontal resistance line was the same as yours 3)The supply line that comes from the previous highs unfortunately doesnt look like yours (attached). Because of the new contract, my Transact feed into Ensign shows only the new contract data (even when I use the continous contract info). Hence, I didnt use that trendline – its a bit messy and doesnt correlate as well as the others. Something I did before coming here and seeing your post: 1.When I redrew the channel, I noticed that the top trendline was more in keeping with the highs – see attached. I can see where they intersect - big reaction there. 2.When it closed down out of the channel, and traded below the low of that down bar, it was pretty evident that it was going to turn bearish short term. Thank you for your words, and time! GLE%

Will do Eiger - tx - I appreciate your reply. Having seen your channel drawn, I had a :crap: moment. Pretty obvious. In light of the post you mentioned at first, with the UT (I also saw it on the 5min chart this morning), I have offered this chart - looking back to why there might be a sign of reversal this morning. Only 5 ways to stop a rally. 1) Buying climax - not present 2) A Failed Test - not present 3) Narrow spreads accompanied by high volume - not present 4) The up thrust - tada! 5) 2 Bar Reversal - with the 2nd bar closing below the low of the 1st high volume bar, on a wide spread. (not present) Upthrust, coming into resistance was the clear winner.

Hi Eiger, Thanks for your response. Must be quite a task responding to these posts, I appreciate your efforts. I have literally poured over your posts and charts so many times, that I have a mini "Eiger" book being created on my pc. So yes, I am not only getting your point, but see further questions with material that you have already posted. I trust that makes it clearer. So with that in mind - a few more q's: 1) The previous few days on a 15min chart (background, background, background), there was a lot of selling. Literally, it was all downhill. The rise in the market in the elipse I marked out, was for me, perhaps unexpected. I would have expected you to be looking for shorts, as the short term trend was down - concur? 2) At 10:15 (on the 15min chart) we hit the previous days low (main session). We trade through it, and retreat somewhat. This is on fairly high volume - certainly the highest volume of the 2nd Feb up until that time. Is the only SOS that you are looking for? 3) As we continue in the resistance shown on the 15min chart of yours, the volume definately slacks off. Is this the general SOW you are now looking for (which works well with the resistance on the 15min close). 4) At 11am, we have a traditional No Demand bar - this could be interpreted as a test? - the next 15 min bar, we trade down, making a no supply bar, and the very next bar, another no demand (or test). The rest of the questions are on the chart. Trying to figure out the signs here, and see if you are using supplementary signs in making your trades. Mucho gracias! GLE

For Eiger - The question I have simply is why you dont make mention of the annotations I added to the chart - all the ND's, tests, NS's, upthrusts, etc. There were plenty of signals that I added to the chart (in the elipse) but they havent been mentioned by you at all - why?) Hopefully you can answer those questions because then I can see why you chose to stay out of some trades, and stay in others. This is simply a copy repaste of a chart you did recently on the ES - thank you for your time! To start: Today's 3-minute ES: Background - Price rallied after the open, then spent an hour reacting in a slow drift down. Volume was less on the reaction than the volume on the rally off the AM lows. Spreads were also generally narrower on the reaction, and as the reaction progressed, volume receded. A Higher Low (HL) was put in. After an earlier, failed attempt to break above resistance at 1, price held its gains at 2 on light volume (no supply) and also held the Demand Line YY of an uptrend channel. All of this is bullish. Note the emphasis placed on the background. We always start with the background. ----- A - Price pushes through the resistance area (red line) on high volume. B - Next bar has sustained volume, but the spread is narrowed and the close is in the middle. C - This bar is up, but the volume has dropped off precipitiously. This tells us in advance that the Supply Line, ZZ, is unlikely to be broken. D - Supply enters where expected. D is a down bar, closing on its lows on heavy volume. E - An up bar, closing on its highs after dipping below D indicates another rally will be attempted. However, the narrow spread and low volume indicate that professional money has withdrawn, so the rally is unlikely to go very far. F - Volume increases and the spread widens a bit (increased activity), but the result is a close on the lows. This Hidden UpThrust indicates supply. ----- More Background - Support and resistance are important to VSA. Look at the current chart in relation to the 15-minute chart (attached). We are currently just above yesterday's close and, more importantly, in the 825 area which offered support yesterday moring and early afternoon, but which is now likely to offer resistance. Thus, the background conditions from yesterday are joining with the immediate supply conditions seen on the 3-minute chart for a nice short set-up. ----- G - the market reacts to the previous low at E and rallies, but does so on a narrow spread and low volume - No Demand. H - A Hidden UpThrust that closes below the close of G on an increase in volume. The market now starts to fall. Good locations to initate shorts were at F, G & H I - As the market falls, volume increases. This bar was a down bar on average spread closing on the lows. The increas in volume and poor close tells in advance that the support levels from the trend line at YY and the horizontal support line (red line) are unlikely to hold. J - Tells basically the same story - supply is in control (down bar, increased volume, above average spread, and close on lows). K - The bar after J is narrow spread, close in the middle and high volume. Next bar is up. Some buying came in here, but K swamped whatever buying existed with a widerer spread down bar, close below the previous two lows on an increase in volume. L - The swelling volume that came in between J and K knocked the market sideways. Note the spreads and the volume. Spreads are narrow, volume is low and receding as the market attempts to rally. The two bars immediately before L are No Demand. L is a Hidden UpThrust on an increase in volume which caught stops and then closed on its lows. Another good location to initiate a short. The last bar on the chart is wide spread down bar with an increase in volume, closing on its lows. Supply is in full control. This is just pure VSA. Not too shabby is it? Always look first to the background, then follow the bars as they tell the story of the unfolding market. Trying to read the market by looking at a bar or two won't work. It will only hurt you. As you can see, adding other things extraneous to VSA is unnecessary and likely to be confusing. Hope this is helpful, Eiger

As for Volume, I use a Donchian Channel on that, including a Keltner band (x2) If anyone is interested, I'll post those.

Squat Bar - this is all you need.

Hi Humsdegg, Thanks so much for the offer - sorry that time has kept me away. I'll leave the analysis alone for now, and rather offer something. All for Ensign - and one caveat - I reckon someone with better skills would easily make a cleaner, neater alert in Ensign. For the No Demand bar - it requires 4 alerts to be created, and bobs your auntie. Do the opposite of those alerts for the "No Supply bar".

Morning All, Received a couple of PM's asking for the template etc for Ensign - I wont release that just yet because I am unsure if what I am doing is presenting the best visible options. Once I am sure with that - absolutely - I am happy to share that. Heres a close up of the same period in question - hopefully this is visually better? Thanks - G

Hi All, Noob post here. Was led here by a friend of mine, thanks to Milan. I read the VSA goodies, including many of the VSA resources listed here on the thread and others. Thank you for that. I have programmed Ensign software to highlight all No Demand Bars (higher close, volume less than previous two bars) - and annoted with a D below that bar No Supply Bars (lower close, volume less than previous two bars) - annotated with a S below that bar Squat Bars - lower range than previous bar with higher volume - annotated with a X above it WRB's - highlight on the bars that qualify. However, I see so many losing trades on todays Russel - even if you wait one bar for confirmation of the "strength" of the No Demand or No Supply Bar. Yes - the trend was definately down - but even the shorts would have lost fairly rigourously here (obviously depending on where one puts their stops). I thought I would put this out there, and see what you think. Russel, 1min Chart - attached the same chart with a white background if thats easier on the eye. And double edit: 5min Russel attached showing down trend, and same period of time. Thanks - Good Trading - G Triple Edit: So I decided to do the logical thing: look for a trade setup on the 5min - and once it was confirmed then look to the 1min for a sign that confirmed the HTF setup. In this particular case - following the confirmation bar scenario on the 5 - I see the following: 1440: Large Test - wait for the next bar - should be bullish. It isnt. 1450: No Demand bar - bearish - wait for next bar which should be bearish - it is - a test. Go down to 1Minute Bars: 1454: No supply bar - which is bullish - but is followed by a comprehensively bearish bar. This is itself a signal of weakness - and could be a short. - stop on the high (+1) of the no supply bar - doesnt get breached. 1508: No Demand bar - the low of which gets broken 4 bars later. Once the low is breached, the stop doesnt get hit. 1510pm: 1-2 Reversal, followed by a further bearish bar. 1514: No Demand Bar - low is breached by a bearish closing bar. Profits to be had on each. I hope that helps some, it sure would have kept me out of losing trades. Cheers.