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romanus
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Everything posted by romanus
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Monday, September 14, 2009.
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Whatever thinking went into drawing the trendlines and gaussians at that time was obviously invalidated by the market. It's quite possible that we both incorrectly identified the Point One.
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Friday, September 11, 2009.
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My 'direct' advise to you is not to assume it ever - I myself do not assume that it was correctly annotated. Some time tomorrow I may settle on this particular view until I am proven wrong attempting to apply the same though process to a different chart. The lines I drew on the chart represent a hypothesis that will be validated or invalidated when tomorrow comes. And even then some ambiguity may still remain as to what is actually a correct view. I had a lot of working theories regarding spikes, but none of them seemed to work consistently for me. The only one that seems consistent so far is that spike bars are different from non-spike bars. I suspect it wouldn't be helpful - sorry about that I can't tell you where the Point Two of the traverse is, may be tomorrow will add more data that would allow to make an argument in favor of one particular place. But I can explain why I drew lines of various thickness on the chart. My hypothesis is that point two of what I think is a traverse would be where medium B2B end.
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I also thought 1310 was skinny b2b. LOL:doh:
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Wednesday, September 9, 2009.
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What is annotated in the snip as Point Two of the blue medium thickness Traverse is actually a point 2 of the tape. I am not sure what you mean by overlapped, but 15:15 breaks pink medium trendline and as such, I believe satisfies the necessary conditions for Point Two of the Traverse. However, what comes next, IMO, may define, what I have erroneously annotated with medium thickness blue trendlines, as just a tape. A retrace is formed by EH lateral tape and FBP tape. This, I suspect, could the reason for everything from 14:45 forward to EOD to be a tape and not a Traverse. However, I could be wrong, and the real issue may be somewhere else ( I can't exclude the 14:25 lateral from consideration). My comment about not missing other factors determining the termination of medium B2B was premature. Until I am able to locate a few examples that allow apple to apple comparison, the question whether or not a combo of EH lateral tape and FBP tape is suffiecient for a Traverse's retrace remains open for me. P.S. As far as the comment about checking the volume, I'd be very beware of generalized suggestions which are not supported by tangible examples of contexts which lend themselves to 'apple to apple' comparison.
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Let me have a crack at it, if you don't mind. Obviously, the market indicated that the combo of EH lateral tape and FBP tape isn't sufficient for a 5 m ES Level Traverse's retrace. I don't think I missed any other factors that may influence the termination of medium B2B.
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IMO, the type of EH that developed on 15:15 - 15:20 bars, coupled with the accelerated down tape drawn to the 15:25 FBP, satisfies the requirements for a 5 m ES Level Traverse's retrace. EH, as I am observing, can be treated as a lateral tape, and in this context seems to fit as one. That would put the Point Two of the accelerated traverse at 16:00 bar where my medium black increasing gaussian should have been ended, and medium decreasing red from that point forward. ( My last gaussian is drawn incorrectly - it should be medium decreasing red from 16:00 to EOD)
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Thursday, September 3, 2009.
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Wednesday, September 2, 2009.
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Aside from the issue of what does, and what doesn't end the lateral - the bar in question (14:05) seems to me to be different from any other bar that 'pierces' the lateral's boundary. Specifically, it opens outside of the lateral and closes inside it. I personally differentiate this type of context from the situation where bar would open inside the lateral. My observations (which are yet to be proven wrong by me) so far lead me to consider the type of bars that 14:05 represent to be the continuation of the lateral movement.
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Tuesday, September 1, 2009.
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Your 15:05 bar from Fri is black. You got to fix your bar coloring - doing so will alert you to the fact that your medium R2R doesn't have any decreasing red colume bars.
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Monday, August 31, 2009.
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Correction to the previously posted chart.
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IMO, the highlighted doesn't appear to accurately describe the necessary and sufficient conditions for "geometrical" Point 3. E.g. attached context.
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Friday, August 28, 2009
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Tapes and traverses - broad strokes.
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The quote below was addressed to me, but you may find it useful as well. The 2nd half of '08 IR contains some discussions which may be helpful in achieving the consistency of gaussian annotations. "Your current 'view' of the market as transitioning from increasing to decreasing to increasing again (in terms of Volume) doesn't provide the most accurate interpretation. Instead, monitor from the standpoint of dominant to non-dominant and back to dominant again. Use the Gaussians as an 'indicator' of dominance in order to have them 'match' the trend lines. On many of my charts, the non-dominant portion of the Gaussians do not have the same color as the Volume bars tracked. In other words, the Gaussian lines track dominant vs non-dominant Price Movement, rather than Volume bar coloration. The subtle difference often sits where one finds the market 'mode'. HTH. - Spydertrader" 10-04-08 12:40 PM
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Please disregard my previous comment re: Point Two. It was rigth there, staring me in the face, wondering how I kept missing it, LOL.
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... somehow or rather, 11:50 (8/21) doesn't seem like a Point 2 of the Traverse to me. Perhaps for the same reason, that 12:35 (7/15) wasn't. In fact, I can't seem to put even the skinny gaussians on the volume pane for the last two trading days. Feels a bit freaky.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2009.
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The gaussians match trendlines. The IT thread on ET, especially the 2nd half of '08, contains numerous discussions on the subject. The price moving from Point 2 to Point 3 of the 5 min ES level traverse.
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Would I be correct in my understanding that what you are saying is that the last 4+ weeks worth of charts, give or take a few, contain most possible ways in which the market can build tapes, traverses and channels and that these same 4+ weeks worth of charts should provide sufficient set of market circumstances that one can learn the correct logic of gaussian annotation from as well. In other words, the initial set of charts to focus on doesn't need to contain more than the last 4+ weeks worth of charts ? Thanks.