Logic

Here are the charts I tried to post earlier.

This is an age old argument that just never goes away. You have a stronger line between both camps on this issue than you see on most. In my opinion that is because of the shear nature of trading to begin with. Being objective is really hard evaluating both camps if you don't take into consideration all of the parts that make them up. Fundamental Analysis is inherently flawed because it only assesses information supplied by the very individuals inside that particular stock, commodity or futures market. Do you think they have an "agenda" they want to see play out. Absolutely! Over the last 10 years we have seen stock information manipulated in many company's reports to sway investing either toward or away from the current stock price. This isn't a rare occurrence. It happens on a regular basis. I personally deal with the Agriculture industry and know first hand that the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) manipulates the data they release to the Ag community in order to try to control prices. I've caught them in numerous lies over the years especially when it comes to sending reports regarding foreign country usage, acreage planted and weather. I figure they think they can get away with putting out misinformation because "farmers" are ignorant. I remember a trip I made a few years ago to China and Australia. When I got back I went to an Ag conference where the USDA reps were saying that China and Australia were going to have good crops that year. This was a blatant lie. China crop was blighted that year and Australia was in the middle of another huge drought. The USDA was trying to force the farmers to sell their crops early to keep the supply up. The information they release on local usage isn't much better for accuracy. Other industries in the futures arena aren't any different when it comes to trying to manipulate price direction. Technical Analysis (TA), (old school that is) is just as inconsistent. When it comes to analyzing past data and price flow. I agree that the past is just the past. [i want to point out that unless you are making your decisions using anything other than raw data, if you are looking at a chart in any way shape or form to make your trading decisions (even naked price bars), you are using TA]. Old TA assessed a market (symbol) segment usually based in time or transactions. The problem with that is that the markets are traded in Volume not Time or Transactions. Anytime you assess a chart based in Time or Transactions the weight of the price bars are unbalanced. Unbalanced because there is a different amount of contracts or shares represented per bar. Simple math dictates you can not find a solution to any problem where the components of the problem are constantly changing. This is why edges disappear. This is why profitability is always fleeting. This is why consistency was the Holy Grail that was never found. It's impossible to find consistency in an inconsistent chaotic environment. Call it current TA but this environment is far more stable that the TA of old. What is the difference, Constant Volume Bars™. I'm just not saying that because I created them but because they actually balance out the flow of a chart. On a Constant Volume Bar™ chart, each price bar is the exact same weight. Since the bars are weighted the same, assessing or reading the content of the chart or the data flow is perfectly consistent. The variable aspect of the charts are gone. Now I use the chart layout in a unique way to create my own edge (charts attached) but others that are using these chart structures are all telling me they are seeing an increase in profitability and a consistency they never had before in their own trading styles using Constant Volume Bars™. These bars are available in MultiCharts, NinjaTrader, Tradestation and Sierra Charts that I know of but the only charting platforms that build the bars accurately are MultiCharts and NinjaTrader. I personally use MultiCharts because I find it the most robust and easy to use. I'm telling you that I've been profitable for years not to draw attention to myself but to simply point out it is possible. There are many edges out there that work. I know a number of traders that have been trading for a living for years that either trade nothing like I trade or trade in a similar manner. It doesn't matter. I know day traders that are profitable and I know swing traders that are profitable. I do know that most of these profitable traders purposely don't bring attention to themselves because they don't want to argue that what they do is gambling or that it is impossible to do what they do. Both being ignorant statements. Every math professor I gave my findings to (purposely omitting how they were being applied) after rigorous testing, told me that my findings were flawless. Interesting enough that as soon as I told them how I was applying the math they changed there tone. that is all but a couple of them. One actually retired from his college position and started trading. Just don't limit your focus. Be open minded. Trust what you see not what you think! Work smart not hard.

I'm on SKYPE. It's easy to share my sreen to show you. Picture is worth a thousand words you know. Let me know if that works. Email me at wm.schamp@pricephysics.com and I will forward you my contact info. I do SKYPE every afternoon after trading.

#111 Minimum 20 character post.

Check above post. I did.

The template I posted was for NinjaTrader not MultiCharts. Email me and I will send you the indicator and a template workspace for Multicharts. (wm.schamp@pricephysics.com) 1. Price bars are 343 Volume Bars. 2. 2nd pane is Trading ERG & Trading ERG Histogram based on the 343 Volume Bars 3. Bottom pane is the Strength ERG & Strength ERG Histogram based on the 2401 Volume Bars 4. Change in color in Trading ERG or Trading ERG Histogram is where the primary Trade entries and Trade exits take place & specifically where Long Term Strength is confirmed from the Trading ERG. 5. Change in color in the Strength Histogram is where we see short term strength. We do not use the Strength ERG. Too long term.

The annotating of your chart is perfect. Look how my chart is different. I break the indicator up to Trading oscillations and Strength oscillations. If you want to talk about it, let's SKYPE.

Here is the intraday chart for June Crude Oil as of right now and the trades that executed.

You know when the Prime Oscillation is created and that is coordinated now at the price level at 1.4627. A LL confirmes the PPF (LH) Another LH is further confirmation of the top. Another PPF (LH) is further confirmation. The Ninja Trader template I posted has both the trading oscillations and Strength oscillations listed.

Well stated. Price is consolidating at a long term Prime Resistance top. Prime PPF of Resitance is the confirming oscillation of that top.

Attached is the Template for my indicator for NinjaTrader 7.0. Sorry I don't have one for 6.5. Bill Schamp ERG_PL.zip

I'll get with the programmer to send me a template for NT 6.5 and 7.0. I'll post it on here if she sends it. Bill

I've improved on the technique by giving everyone the ability to trade using strength and the oscillations. the strength indicator is the one on the bottom. In a few weeks I will detail the improvements on here.

Here is a chart covering 2 days of Crude Oil (Monday & Tuesday). This shows entries, exits, recognizing and trading in consolidation.

I'm currently annotating the Crude chart for Monday and Tuesday for a student to show him how to trade during consolidation. Give me a 15 minutes and I'll post it here. I promise it to be detailed.

I'm always around the computer.

There are plenty of futures contracts that trade with enough volume to offer plenty of opportunities each day. Some of them are; Euro FX, Light Sweet Crude, eSoybeans, eWheat, eSoymeal, eSoyoil, eMini NASDAQ, Australian Dollar futures, Swiss Franc futures, Gold & Heating Oil. There is absolutely no reason what so ever to trade a thin market. Think about going into a buffet and you are starving to death and there is only one bite of your favorite dish but lots of other things you like. But you lay on the floor and die because you are stubborn and only want to eat your favorite but it isn't enough to sustain you . . . that is not only silly but not bright. You will find that 3000 to 5000 contracts will be the minimum you want to mess with for daily volume. I personally like volume bar charts as well but to each their own.

My opinion of May 6th was, if a trader could read an intraday chart there was absolutely no reason, trading the indices, that particular trader would have been long. If they weren't long, they can not read a chart. Regarding swing trading, my charts triggered exits on May 4th.

Yes, it was recently automated for both grey box and black box applications utilizing MultiCharts and eSignal. I freely provide the indicator for a few charting programs: MultiCharts, Tradestation, NinjaTrader & AmiBroker. The AmiBroker code is the weakest because it is the oldest and hasn't been updated in a long time. I only offer the box applications to former students and I no longer teach. The information on the method is freely available on EliteTrader but you have to search for it. I have a book on my site but free is a lot better, just takes a bit of birdogging on the site. The key to what I do is the volume bar charts but I'm told Sierra doesn't build them correctly. I use multiple chart increments as well but I embed them and build them into a single chart instead of trying to watch multiple charts, less distraction. The TSI is the same as the ERG. I prefer the ERG because it can be adjusted and tuned easier. Email at wm.schamp@pricephysics.com and let me know if you want one of the free indicators.

Here's an example of the Australian Dollar Future's swing chart from early April. This chart has produced over 1050 pips in just over 3 months. Tha isn't bad.

I'll make it easy on you. Send me an email at wm.schamp@gmail.com and I will send you the indicator for NT. Just let me know whether you need it for 6.6 or 7. The indicator is free . . . learning to use it takes patience.

Ask a specific question and I will answer it. If you live in Vegas I can direct you to someone that can explain it in person in about 30 minutes but you will have to buy him lunch.

My position is still valid but let me make myself clearer. Trading on a range bound chart is a lot harder than trading on a chart that is showing clear strength either up or down. If one chart is range bound, simple speed the chart up one volume bar increment and you usually will find yourself outside the choppiness and back into a strong directional move. If the consolidation is really bad and you find more choppiness on the next fastest chart. Go to any other market. There are so many liquid profitable markets out there that is seems silly to marry a single market or chart. Trading simply at points of support and resistance is acceptable for the experienced trader but for someone on the long end of the learning curve learning to see "strength" is crucial to longevity in this business. Adding strength to the specific support or resistance creation will increase your profit potential of any trade by 10 times. Once you can read strength (trending charts) it is still better to buy support in a clear uptrend as to wait for the breakout of resistance and it is better to sell resistance in a clear downtrend as to wait for the breakout of support.

Simple. If you learn to read a chart for its main attributes of "Price Direction" & "Strength" and the chart becomes choppy and range bound you can easily see see "Price Direction" (up at an oscillation of support or down at an oscillation of resistance) but you have no confidence due to the "Strength" being neutral or even totally against the trade so you STAND ASIDE!!! Why trade during choppy range bound times? Charts offer more opportunities to profit than they do chop so learn to have the patience to wait for those times.

Here is a screen shot of a manual Euro Futures chart from today, a manually traded eMini S&P chart from today and an automated Euro Futures chart from today.