Beachtrader

Well despite what looked like a nice level, price had other thoughts on the matter!! Aggressive trailing got me out at -0.30R. This week is turning into a week of lots of small losers and not much to show on the upside!! Current screenshot shows that maybe I couldashouldawoulda been more relaxed, but rules is rules.... All the best BT P.S. I didn't know there were 20 oscillators!!

I am in a similar trade, albiet at a lower level, and with slightly different reasoning. Thales, apologies for the fibs etc. but of late I have been finding that I am not being as precise with my entries as I would like to be (or reasons for) and so am trying to build a 'story' around my trades rather than simply hitting levels (with P.A. confirmation) in the overall direction of trends. Kind regards BT

I guess this is an example of 'gnothi seauton'? I think this is / was always an issue for me as I didn't believe that I liked losing. It's taken me a long time to realise that I don't mind having lots of losing trades but I do mind losing big!

I think that's an extremely interesting point and possibly hinges on one's personal attitude to risk. By that I mean that, given the way I manage my trades now, I could use a single digit hard stop for each entry but the danger for me in doing this is that I would see up to 70% of my trades get taken out at 1R which I personally couldn't handle, no matter how good the overall R/R on winning trades is, but that's just me!

Hello there, Apologies for not posting of late but I thought I should as I was an early follower of the 'System 2' thread which was started by a former pit trader. I never really posted much there as it focused on Euro whereas I traded cable but followed it avidly. The reason for my post was Kiwi's reference to trade management as this was always my bug bear and took a while to find a way to make things work properly for me. When the system 2 thread first started the OP mentioned the 20/20 and 20/40 rules whereby one used a 20 pip hard stop and a TP at either 20 or 40 pips giving either a 1R or 2R return. This had me bemused for a while as I found that my win rate with the suggested entries was way lower than 50% which meant that one was a net loser over time. Then it dawned on me (and I think this is what you have been explaining of late Thales?) that it is fine to have a 1R or 2R return for winners if the losers are always less than -1R. In other words one's stop needs to be aggressively trailed to reduce risk. I always liked this as I have a firm belief that the only thing I have any control over in my trading is the amount of risk I have in any one trade. From memory the OP's own method of trade management was to trail his stop 1 pip at a time up to b/e. I tried this but it didn't feel logical enough for me. Anyway after a lot of experimentation I ended up using the method that hopefully these 2 charts that I posted elsewhere last year explain. In essence I used M5 levels (set-ups) but, when the trade triggered, I would drop to M1 and trail above / below M1 swings up to a level where I could put my stop at b/e. The reasoning behind this being that, when price breaks through a level, I 'expect' it to break hard and fast. Any pullbacks or hesitation suggest to me that the trade might not work out as I am 'expecting' it to. My mindset is firmly of the belief that my job is to manage / reduce risk - the winners simply win, but it's how I manage the losers that defines whether I make money or not. I'm pretty sure Thales mentioned a similar method a few weeks ago when describing an ES trade? Anyway, hope this isn't too off topic. As an aside I am now using a very similar system trading M15 'a la Thales'. It makes for an awful lot of losers (approx. 70%) but these losers are on average around -0.25R whereas the winners are a large multiple of this. Kind regards BT

With that in mind, here is one I'm looking at at the moment. Looking at the daily we could have seen 2 pushes lower with a third to come? Entry on H4 with TP as marked. Once / if this is reached then I will trail the rest behind H4 swings. Kind regards BT

Jonbig breakdown on cable this afternoon! Kind regards BT

Sadly that rocket launch was enough to take me out of this one. Cable certainly looks a bit jumpy this afternoon!

Kind regards BT

I ended up taking a 9 pip loss on this trade which couldashouldawoulda been a b/e trade but I got transfixed with price busting that 6144 resistance - which it didn't!! Anyway on to the next one for me and looking for a LrH below 6144 for a possible short entry or a break above to go long. Kind regards BT

Possibly setting up for a reversal. All the best BT

Hello Thales, Would I be correct in my understanding this as a potential '3 drives to a bottom'? With kind regards BT

Apologies if my question has already been covered before but would you mind explaining what 'tcl' stands for in the above post? Kind regards BT

Something like this? I am quite interested in the level marked in red as that proved a tough one to crack earlier in the afternoon. All the best BT

Hi Marko, Thank you for explanation. I see precisely what you are saying. I think this is a trap I have been falling into of late as I am very used to looking at M5, although almost all the levels I tend to trade off are M15 and above, as M5 is the timeframe that I have got used to looking at. That said, and someone put this very well to me, I simply look at clusters at or around these levels so, in effect, the timeframe is pretty meaningless to me unless I see what I am looking for. I think very often the clusters I see are visible on a higher timeframe as well but my eyes don't see the price action so well. With kind regards BT

Hi Marko, Please do. I don't want to bore anyone with how I manage my trades save to say that I am extremely aggressive in cutting them if they aren't working out quickly, but anything I can learn to avoid obvious pitfalls I would be extremely grateful for. Kind regards BT

I think this may qualify as good, bad and then very ugly!! What started out as a nice SAR from a long that was going nowhere turned into an extremely frustrating trade. What was I thinking to watch a bounce 2 pips from my TP turn into a b/e trade. I think i need a long weekend away from the screens! Kind regards BT

Hi Marko, Would you mind expanding on that if it's not too much trouble? Many thanks BT

Euro at the moment with an obvious breakout level. M5 shows a concerted failure to find interest below 1.4116 for the monent. All the best BT Update: Triggered long and taking some flak! Update: Didn't seem to be much appetite for the breakout so moved stop to under the level asap and stopped out.

For completeness sake here is the final chart of the euro trade I took on Monday night. Initial entry was 4277 and I scaled out at 4258 (1/2), 4205 (just over 1/4) and 4125 (the rest) was hit this afternoon when euro went walkabout. I'm not used to letting trades run this long (half a day is usually my max!) so I'm sure the scaling out etc. could have been massively improved upon but lots of lessons learnt for the future. Kind regards BT

Thank you Thales for your feedback. That trick for chop zones is fascinating and I look forward to utilising it. With regards to the HLLrH sequence, I think I was at fault for not interpreting what was going on correctly in real time as (as always with hindsight) I could see it after the event!! Kind regards BT

EURUSD continuation? Kind regards BT

If ever I have been glad of having a stop in place! Thales, on the subject of trade management I am struggling a little with M15 and wondered if you could offer some advice. Obviously this is now with hindsight, but would I be right in thinking that a more prudent approach would have been to allow 1 test of the breakout level and tightened to just below that level, possibly taking into account the then failure of price to break its previous high as an early warning signal of trouble ahead? Kind regards BT

here's how I'm seeing EURJPY at the moment. I haven't got a view either way so have marked on possible entries etc. for each direction. A short for me would require a LrH off 129.29. Kindregards BT Update: Long entry triggered

Suitably humbled by the market for breaking my rules on trailing stops. Stopped out at b/e having moved my stop to b/e before a new high had printed. Feeling chastened as a result. Kind regards BT