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clmacdougall
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Content Count
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Days Won
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Everything posted by clmacdougall
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I'm beginning to see 74.00 as a great possibility
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A good day to all, have a great day out there !
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We are in the same trade for probably totally different reasons. But every once in awhile we overlap.
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Agree with you on the trade, am leaning against 83.50 but target is 78.25. Agree on low probability but right trade
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For the sheer sake of soothing our curiosity, I join with zdo in asking where have you been?
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Could you please post a screenshot for us. It would help with clarity in trying to understand your previous posts. Thank you.
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"The Profitable Art and Science of Vibratrading" by Mark Andrew Lim and "The Happy Gospel" by Benjamin Dunn. I highly recommend both. Lim's book is excellent advice for investors, never heard anything like it. Dunn's book is equally excellent, great advice for christians or anyone interested in really understanding how great the gospel really is.
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I too am calling short. 84.00 against 91.00
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Thanks for your openness and honesty. Its a rare thing!! Cory
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Managing and Understanding the Nature of Trends
clmacdougall replied to StreetCoup's topic in The Markets
Please tell us how you define a change of trend, as there are many different definitions out there. Are you using trend lines? -
Hi Tom, No trouble.....your method is somewhat complex so it would need to be studied more closely and in depth in order to understand it's value. With that being said its hard to follow you when the complexity surrounding your call hasn't been explained. Without clarity I can't decide upon the value of your market understanding. All the best. Cory
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Hi Tom, I appreciate your posts but found it hard to see whether your market calls had been successful or not. Your scaling out process seems a major component of your trading system that needs clarification. Without this it undermines the clarity of your market calls. It made it hard to see if your understanding of the market was useful or not. Scaling out added a dimension that seemed to almost always put you on the right side of the market no matter what happened next. I felt that the form I requested N to add would've make it easy to see if there was value to your methodology/understanding or not. I felt it would've added an objective style scrutiny of your market calls and define whether there was worth to them or not. A simple form filled out at the outset of your trade would've proven the value to your understanding upfront. Just my:2c:.
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Thanks N, I see now the purpose of this thread. Thanks for your time in answering my request. I am not interested in any particular method just understandings I've picked up from many books and through studying the markets myself. All the best and thanks again.
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N, on the first post of this thread you requested people explain the thinking behind their trades as much as possible, without that it's hard to retain an interest in this thread. Could you make up a thread form with #1entry; #2 target / targets / scale outs; #3 stop and #4 reason for entry. Simple but an interesting reason to follow this thread
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Could you please tell me why you judge the low and high to be fairly poor. Thanks, Cory
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No problem ......... I understand!
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Could you please tell us what exactly you are waiting to see alignment from. Thanks, Cory
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No problem Josh. The temptation with MP/VP is to step back for a bigger picture context of the market as large groupings of information. Whose to say there is any value in that. You might be searching for security from the reactions of yesterdays or last months or last years participants. You are still guessing at mass psychology, using various market reactions from those participants in the past who may in no way hold those same values or opinions today. These groupings and nodes are not necessarily "context" and may lead you to place too much security in what the market has done in the past.
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Tom, I have a hunch that your hunches are somewhat more mechanical in nature than you may be letting on and could be spelled out and taught as such. A developing profile may not give you any more insight than any other chart as to where the market might go in the future,but it can possibly give you as much info as any other chart. If MP has shown you contextual market structure it can certainly be passed on beyond your in the moment reactions to a fattening profile or your rotational revelations that only happen at the point of the next rotation. You mentioned "context" in your reply, it is the destroyer of many an account for sure. Hard and fast rules concerning context can put us at odds with the market which is always right.I'm not so sure that MP/VP provides that contextual edge or if adopting a context based on nodes and value areas,opens and closes is a more natural and contextual way to trade than what is offered by time, price, volume and delta in a much simpler form. Creating cumulative structures of any of the markets key components seems reasonable and worthwhile, but maybe its just laziness. Studying these components in their minutia might hold more value than studying them as a cumulative. The structure you are calling context may add no edge at all and may in fact keep you from understanding the simplicity of the market by replacing it with a "bigger picture" fallacy. In any case please tell us more about how you took apart the profile and came to realize the benefits of its smaller parts. Without understanding the strength of your convictions it seems fruitless to read your market calls and seemed to have frustrated you today. I enjoy your conviction, I just don't understand why you have it. Please start at the beginning and teach us!
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Takes a real man to post the truth Tom, keep up the good work.
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Hi Tom, Thanks so much for the reply. Really a great insight into a discretionary traders mind! I have just a couple of questions, what gives you "confidence" that you will be able to scale out when you enter a trade and why do you have a "belief" that your trade is going to work when you put it on. You must have developed some sort of probability sets which allows you to take confidence in a trade going your way when you enter it. In essence what have you developed beforehand that has created that conviction before you enter a trade. Or is it pure in the moment market reading that gives you confidence when entering a trade? Thanks again, Cory
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Are you simply trying to determine a favorable risk/reward setup without determining the lean of the market as well? It seems that if you are also trying to determine the lean of the market than you are dabbling in prediction as to where the overall market will be heading. Does the probability of where the market overall might be headed enter into your trade setup or are you merely looking at a bounce off of support to the next area of resistance without judging the markets overall strength /weakness? Thanks, Cory
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Hi Tom, Is your probability set based upon which way the market might move due to the information you have gathered, or is your probability set based upon a risk to reward setup alone. And if the second than how is your thinking in anyways different from the first? What I'm trying to ask is how does a risk reward probability setup avoid trying to determine market direction? Thanks, Cory
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With all due respect, I don't think the owner/owners care much about that anymore. The website changed hands not too long ago and the new owner is much more lenient than the previous owner. If it bothers you then just ignore his posts, other than that nothing is going to change.
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Hi onesmith, Please read the thread "Vendors Vendors Vendors" in it we developed a new structure of identifying but not necessarily judging a vendor. Steve46 is fully within the guidelines of the owner/moderators rules. At the same time I understand your frustration of watching someone post a chart and not explain its dynamics but such is the game of forums. You never know the true intent of the poster and have no choice but to take him/her at their word and ignore their posts if you should so choose. All the best, Cory