clmacdougall

gosu, Tom's method of using MP seems to discount the idea of a setup or entry that holds predictive or high probability qualities. But I doubt that's true. His entries are not merely based upon low volume nodes that offer a chance of rotation back into a high volume node. They seem to also include the use of delta and price structure confirmation. So in effect although he may be psychologically protecting himself by calling each trade a 50/50 coin toss, I hardly believe it's true.

I couldn't have said it better, Thanks Josh!

What is a node CLmac? Nodes are the results of the horizontal building of a profile through price or volume either rotating or building in an area of active trade as compared to the price areas above and below that area. Josh, I find it hard to accept you don't know what a node is, as you speak about them all day everyday here on this thread. Why act so disingenuous? When you talk about the context derived from overlapping market activity, what is the alternative? Non-overlapping market activity? Is this like looking at each day in its own context, as opposed to compared with prior days, where you would ignore prior highs, lows, etc.? Josh, my point is that I believe more is lost than gained by appreciating voluminous or rotational nodes as opposed to the activity which created them! The market price is simply where the market is trading. It is not an entity, or a "thing" -- it is simply a result .... I just don't get how you can say this, but to each his own. The action and activity of how the market got to where it's at from where it was is meaningful in my opinion. I've already told you how I consider all price activity equally meaningful no matter the volume so all that's left is to disagree on contextual understandings of how we individually view the market. All the best, Cory

"I understand what you are saying here, and it's an interesting thought, but here is my question in response to this: who is the whale? If the daily players are like barnacles, then what is the whale? Isn't it more like a flock of birds who all move together, rather than some unknown mass with small tag-alongs? I see the activity of the "daily players" as collective activity; they are the market... who else is there?" I'd like to add one word to your sentence about daily players "indiscernible" . Collective only in the sense of activity, not in the sense of purpose or intent!! No amount of statistics can prove the intent of participants within a node. That being said I know that you follow a context derived from overlapping market activity, this may handicap a trader and not allow him to see an area for early entrance. You are judging all of my statements through the lens of MP. I stated earlier that I feel the bell curve is suited to base statistics only and not a good fit for the financial markets. It is a misapplied science and an improper evolution of Point and Figure chart work. It was a mistake made by Steidlmayer that he himself admits to. The whale is price. It's context should be appreciated as a whole and no part of it can be overlooked or ignored. Every bit of it is meaningful. The mistakes you could make without taking it all into perspective are many in my opinion. High volume decisions in other markets effect the emini through the night but are seen as low volume trade due to the lack of market participants at that time; this shouldn't be confused with a lack of conviction or importance! "In this case, it's quite random behavior, and the volume at price won't mean much, but then again, neither will reactions in price, so the market price itself will give a "false reading" of someone's intention here as well." Maybe you've not given enough work to studying price for yourself and have moved on to MP without making the most of what can be discerned from price alone. Start at the beginning and like Kelloggs "Try it again for the first time" There is a wealth of information offered by price alone that has still hardly been touched. I do agree with the first sentence. But it can also severely punish the early. Yesterday is a great example of how the market rewarded quite well any who bought as the market was breaking north of 90 (and who closed before the end of the day ). This is always the tradeoff, good price, or more "confirmation" (if such a thing exists haha). I think this is less a function of markets in general, and more of the market on any given day, whether it is balancing/ranging/mean-reverting, or trending in search of value elsewhere. You are deciding by your choice of context that the early entrant can be severely punished, I believe you are gravely mistaken. There is no better place to be than at the point of early entrance, where you are risking less than your reward could be.

Any and all movements of price are significant. The reason being that what is being moved never changes. If I can push a steamroller at all then the timing of it shouldn't matter. It doesn't become easier at any moment of the day then at any other. The emini does not change its makeup or representation no matter if its being moved in the middle of the night or day. The movement changes portfolios nonetheless. If movement can occur, causing an effect that is constantly similar in the change it creates then it is equally meaningful. In my opinion the instrument you trade never stands alone and no matter the resistance of any of its players it moves due to market forces that are defining the "now" value of a product irregardless of speculative activity. No matter the amount of barnacles on the bottom of the whale, it still moves where it wants. To consider that the activity of an instruments movements are due to its daily players alone is ridiculous, 2008 most recently proved this! No one can stand in the way of or define a single instruments activity no matter their will or money. Volume and delta in my opinion are glimpses of heavy and light games of tug of war. They can happen between 2 individuals at a moment in time or between 200,000 . One thing that does not change no matter the amount of players, both moments are speculative activity, guesses!! The reason I find volume and delta to be deceptive is that you can never define the intent, only the action of what was. Delta and volume may both show heavy buying but with what kind of intent involved? Are those buyers buying at a significant level and then giving the market 5 points worth of movement before they ditch their trade or are they trading with a 100 point stop in place? Or perhaps their intent is to get all sorts of meatheads to follow them in buying so that they can populate up a large and profitable selling campaign an hour later. Or maybe those large institutional trades will just be wrong!! Because the intent or wisdom becomes impossible to understand, why not simply focus on the results of any and all movement. Although this may not be perfect, it might be better than believing in what you think the intentions of others are! Studying price movement clearly might be our best chance at profitable trading. Trying to wrap our minds around the intentions of others in my opinion clouds our ability to see the market clearly. The markets reward not the right, but the early!! Too much information clouds your ability to be the early entrant. Without this you have no hope of making money in the markets consistently. If you are buying when others are buying and the price is rising then you are buying at the wrong time and will never be the early entrant, you will only be the fuel that allows the early entrant to be consistently profitable. Any study that encourages late entry is bound to defeat you in the long run. You'll never be able to identify the right side of the market by following volume and delta because profitable traders are almost impossible to identify as their trading actions are indiscernible and not necessarily identified by voluminous trade, in fact it could be just the opposite. Will write more later, let me know what you think. Its all just my opinion!!

Thanks for the reply Josh. Please excuse me as I have to help a friend from my church buy a car from the public auction. Its his first time going to an auction and I am going to show him the ropes as I've bought vehicles there a few times now. I am going to write you back concerning this, but probably not until tonight or tomorrow. You know that I have agreed with you in the past concerning the indiscernibility of market participants. I personally believe this stretches to volume and delta and will explain my self later. All the best, Cory.

Definition of 'S&P 500 Mini' A derivative contract representing a designated fraction of the trading value of a standard S&P futures or options contract. Designed to expand the group of investors that could afford them, the S&P 500 Minis trade and act much like their pricier peers: the contracts are cash settled, follow the same expiration schedule and trade on the same stock exchanges. Got that from the internet, it must be right!!!:rofl::rofl::rofl:

I think the ES is one of many runners in a relay race which spans a 24 hour period everyday. It has the baton for a very short period of time and in a very small way. At best it gives us some information in its price structure alone as to what market participants think of the market on the whole.

Josh, thanks for your input. If you don't mind me asking, why do you think there is any validity to watching volume or delta at all? If all markets (ie currency, commodity and stocks) are so intertwined then watching the movement in volume or delta in the ES could not possibly be construed as having value. The volume or delta in such a small instrument has basically no meaning whatsoever to the market as a whole; while the larger market forces found in the currency markets would have an enormous impact upon the ES. I'm not trying to take sides against your way of context, just trying to understand the "why" behind it. Wouldn't it be somewhat dangerous to make too much of the information garnered from such a small instrument over such a short amount of time everyday? Or do you somehow accept it as being representational of the market as a whole and if so please tell me why?

Hello, I've read several of your posts and have a recommendation for you. Please consider studying some of the material in the Day Trading The emini Futures thread. . These guys are into MP and are well versed in it. You would really enjoy it. All the best!!

This market is not doing what its told!! Bad Market........Bad Market...........Down Boy.........Down I said!!!!!! Its behaving like a bad dog I once knew!!

i think the market has disagreed with us Josh

total agreement should see it go to 80.75

I can see why they call you slick!! Thanks for the reply. A fellow Canadian too! That makes me think even more highlyof you ;) All the best eh!!!

Wow!! Now that's how to do it!! That must give you so much context to work with. How do you synthesize so much into a trading decision? Is it powerful when it comes together as a single decision? Forgive my inquisitiveness I just think its great and am curious.

Going to stick my neck out here and call the market to hit 75.50 before it hits 78.75. Its now at 77.50. Oops, stopped out!!

Good point!! My thought is that serious students of the market can produce very similar calls for very differing reasons. The Hershey follwer sees a "Failure To Traverse" (FTT) on the correct "Volume Gaussian" that allows him to make a judgement call on the market with a method he is deeply familiar with. At the same time a "Profile Trader" sees the market trading into a "Low Volume Node" area with a good risk to reward opportunity if the area holds as resistance and trades back into acceptance or a "High Volume Node" area. While a chartist watching price alone begins to see warning signs of price running out of steam while watching the movement of price over multiple time frames and subjecting his context to the nearest Resistance level. Who is wrong?!!!!!!! No one! If their study is genuine all 3 are correct. And what may be lacking in the context one of them is choosing to use can at times be made up for by the other. As long as they all stay uniquely separated from each other in methodology they can jointly produce confidence in a call that together captures market sentiment. Just a thought!!

I would love to learn the Jack Hershey method of trading. I see it as an iterative way to study the markets. I find it difficult to follow a method I don't fully understand but I do admire it. You can tell it's the result of one mans market soul searching. I personally think that the blend of a few of us who are trading from vastly differing methods could jointly produce great results as long as we would continue to differ in our approaches. Please call out some trades based on his methodology tomorrow I would love to see it in action. Thanks Gosu!!

I see no sell there. What are you using as your signal?

watching market structure at smaller levels so as not to be totally consumed with the bigger picture. It can give signals of coming reversals

never forget Steidlmayer & Schultz concerning " minimum trend"

watch out, market is attempting a basing structure, could move up if successful

got my suspicions that things are about to pick up again!!

ok, it hit the 74's. that's great!!

es possibility of going to go to 77.5