clmacdougall

450 has 3 points of support to breakthrough before a run down can be considered. 309 only has 1, so the risk is good. Along with that was the protected 309 low two days after the 308 low. Vulnerable for a large scale surrender to price moving against it.

Why are you eyeing 450?

Get through 14,309 and you could be clear for a quick run down to 14,000.

Still am saying watch 309. Big number for a short position against relative PA resistance above it. We'll figure that number when 309 is broken. Could be a phony new high for the purpose of liquidating longstanding longs.

Please listen to Db's advice. You are undermining the purpose of TL by your actions.

All eyes on 309, a break of a near perfect double bottom.

Your original concept of a weakening upmove is I think the context to look at the market in. This top is volatile with a wide range, could signal a change in the opposite direction.

You got that right!!! Watch out for the 309, it could be a fast move downhill from there

Great call and a wise decision for sure!

The COT reports the past. It is a delayed report by I think 4 days, remember that when you attempt to give it any significance. I read " The Commitments of Traders Bible" by Briese years ago. A good book , but you might be interested to know that many trading firms have greatly shortened their time frames for holding a trade and this makes the COT report of even less value than it may have been in the past.

I don't understand the complexity of what it is you're doing, but I appreciate your devotion to it and your willingness to share the results. This is the first bit of trading results I think I've seen on this thread for this methodology( although I might have missed some earlier ). Thanks!

It tested the previous low of 14308 from a few days back. In my opinion it came too close to previous support before being bought up again. Another punch through that zone and you could see a wild ride to the downside!! Keep your eyes open for sure!! All the best! Cory

Hope you're not still in it in the midst of this drop.

Karoshiman, why are you choosing to trade the far less liquid dow future, when you could trade the emini s&p instead? Do you find there is something you like about the dow in specific when compared to the nasdaq, emini S&P or even the russell?

:applaud::applaud::thumbs up:!!! Way to go, good call. All the best on the weekend.

I wonder about the usefulness of trendlines or channels. A pseudo science for sure. I studied them extensively and have found them to be of no value. They remove simplicity and try to replace it with a false sense of context. We've all been force fed their legitimacy for sure. Perhaps you get more from them than I've learned to.

Because you believe in the predictive nature of chart patterns, I felt it might be of some help to point you in the direction of more specific setups, with regards to definition.Wolfe waves seem great for that with great risk to reward potential. Look it up here on TL, you may enjoy it. You've got a great psychology for this game, you get right back in the ring. All the best, Cory

Consider studying the geometry of wolfe waves as a potential pattern to add to your arsenal, it may keep you out of early entry and help your specificity for price targets and stops. Or maybe you've already heard of it.

I agree with your argument somewhat. Oversimplification is just as dangerous though but it does remedy our ego and expectation when we fail. Have you read "Trade What You See" by Pesavento. It will start you on the path of defining basic patterns objectively. I think you will find it very valuable and recommend it. Cory

If you don't mind me asking, are most of your swing entries based upon classical TA? By that I mean basic chart patterns?

Good thing! The markets falling fast.

Sticking with your long YM or getting second thoughts?

Good call!!! Have a great weekend!!

Fair enough, who truly knows what's going to happen next!!.:haha:

Be careful of a late friday sell off. If you're in profit, why not just close your position and reenter on sunday night. Just my .