Shaun Downey

No. they are lying and it will not return what they say

Expands on the first one and then connects this with payroll on Friday and many new concepts. TL! Videos

Video on soybeans: TL! Videos

Euroyen gave a weekly sell on April 6 on the divergence so this week as it has not made new highs it couldn't give fresh signal. the daily Icho clound could cross lower too soon. Its much like the Swiss yen and Kiwi Yen. In conclusion yes it is negative as well.

Today's video covering the yen. TL! Videos

Todays video: Quantify Divergence TL! Videos

Market Analysis from April 20, 2009 TL! Videos

Major structural weakness in Yen in the cross rates. Video parts 1-3. By Shaun Downey Technical Analyst for CQG Part 1 TL! Videos Part 2 TL! Videos Part 3 TL! Videos

This is a follow up to what I spoke about on Cnbc last week and just shows how I came to the conclusions for those that missed it. Has various nuggets such as spreads and profile . TL! Videos

Big set ups on stocks, index's, bonds, oil, and oil stocks. TL! Videos TL! Videos

They are one and the same thing. They are a proprietry study I developed that look at the strength and length of trend to create a skew so if the trend is down the pivots below will be wider apart than the ones above. They are formed once the bar opens so you have a fixed reference for the day. For the reports I reference the daily levels, but have built them for all timeframes for use in algorithmic execution as well as tehnical analysis based trades. There are a variety of patterns and relationships that they can be used for, but one of the main ones is the connection with extremes of range for the day, and then connecting that with the extreme of range for the time of day for a specific timeframe chart eg 30 minutes. This uses another study called Volatility Time Bands. My book Trading Time http://www.trading-time.com goes into great detail about these and other studies I have built and how this can be connected with Market Profile. The studies themselves are availible on the Cqg platform http://www.cqg.com. I'll post some more videos over the next few weeks that show some connections. Shaun

Part 1 and Part 2 is listed below. Thanks. TL! Videos TL! Videos

TL! Videos TL! Videos

Video blog can also be found here.

Video blog from Feb. 13, 2009. Follow up from this post. TL! Videos

Connecting the Trading Time Studies for Low Risk Entry This week we are going to look at and explain how some of the users of the studies from Trading Time connect the analysis together. For those who have attended my seminars they will know that there are four blocks to how I analyze and trade. True measurements of Support and Resistance (M Profile) True measurements of Overbought and oversold (Peak Oscillator) Limits of range and the trend of the day (Range Deviation Pivots) Limits of range and trend for the specific time of day (Volatility Time) Today will look at a specific set up and how it enabled a low risk sell on Cable on Friday. Firstly support and resistance. Fig 1 shows the report I wrote for I traders on Cable. The key point is the bank of resistance at 1.4580 to 1.4616. This took the distribution from the September highs as shown in Fig 2. This marks the beginnings of a old higher distribution. Connecting this together is the daily chart that has Range Deviation Pivots. This study is based on the opening and has an inbuilt skew for trend, before placing 1, 2 and 3 deviations around that opening. The 3rd Pivot reflects the normalised extreme of range for the day and came in at 1.4579 or the beginning of Profile resistance. Finally the last chart shows a 20 minute candle with Volatility Time Bands and the Peak Oscillator. Purple lines represents overbought and there was the very rare set up of a quadruple Peak Out. This highlights price at an extreme. More importantly the Volatility Time Band, which takes the time of day and then computes symmetrical deviations around the opening price, shows a limit of range for that time of day at 1.4604. Therefore, we have a connection between support and resistance, overbought, the limit of Range for the day, and then the limit of range for that specific time of day. As I say, quiet rare but extremely powerful and a high probability day trade possibility. Fig 1 Fig 2 Fig 3 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=9442&stc=1&d=1234751393 The Kase Peak Oscillator is part of the Statware studies.

The only specific Asian stuff is on the taiwan market. Anthony could send you that. I do a spot Fx one on the 6 majors and there is also bonds/indexes availible on http://www.i-traders.com. If you contact them vai there contact us tab and say you have emailed me and I've said you can have a trail for a couple of weeks, they will email them direct to you. The cost is 50 pound per asset class per month The site has only been up a couple of weeks so we will be expanding coverage into different areas so if you tell me what Asian markets you are interested in, I can get in touch when the time comes. Regards Shaun

Video is available as well: TL! Videos

Major trends often begin within a major news event or the sudden decision to ignore what would have been bullish or bearish news previously. I call this good news bad action or bad news good action. Normally we only know this after the event, but on occasions the market sets itself up in such a way that we know coming into a news event that it should create a trend. Such a set up is very clear and a perfect example in the S*P and payroll. It is when the market becomes perfectly balanced right at the moment when the news event is occurring. Figure 1 shows two charts of the Dow, which show a previously mentioned monthly trend line and then a switch to the daily chart with the same line. Yesterday saw price close almost exactly on that line. This means that the line is set to become major support or resistance. The daily chart also shows one of my proprietary divergence based signals. This uses the Rsi and is qualified in more detail in chapter 4 of my book Trading Time. The signal is rare and its history shows that the signal is either brilliant or useless. There is rarely a situation where the low of the pattern is broken and then subsequently the market reverses back up. Therefore I am simply looking for a 1 or two day conformation on the daily chart that the signal has worked or failed. However, it is the S* P that the really powerful set up is evident. Figure 2 shows the distribution from the lows in November. The point of control or the longest line is exactly where the market settled last night ahead of the report at 841. It is uncanny how many times this occurs ahead of a decision making time. It is as if the market sub consciously needs to return to the point of fair value before beginning a period of unfair value or a trend. Even more significant and difficult to see is the fact that the mid point of the trend is also exactly at the point of control. This means that the distribution is also balanced and now ready to trend. There are three plans of attack. For the day or short term trader go with the initial move, but be very wary of a sudden reversal as the market goes in the opposite direction. Short term traders could just wait for this reversal but remain aware that it might not happen. The second line of attack is to wait for the pit opening and then look for the break out after just 10 minutes. Traders could also wait for price to trade above 854.80 as this would place price in a higher distribution and be bullish. The downside break is clearer and is at 807 and 798. For the strategic player waiting until Monday or Tuesday is an option as the trend should be clearly defined and fresh opportunities to go with the trend will present themselves. Whatever your time horizon remember that a major trend is due.

The rules are generally fixed. Reistances are taken from the previous trend and the distribution begins at that point until a major low is made. Then supports come from current trend as seen on the daily chart. It is normally at least 5 days before you know a new trend has started. Short term traders can have an extra distribution that reflects the previous 5 days only. This is because short term traders cannot remember further back. It would be vice versa if the current trend is down.

Connecting key Timing moments Any trader will know that without correct timing the best placed plans can lie in ruins. However, you will often read that many professionals will state that if there trade doesn’t develop quickly they will exit. In truth there are asking a great deal of themselves, as who is any trader to say that as soon as a they buy or sell the market will move there way. Exit too soon and the trend could develop once you exit, stay too long and then your stop is hit. John Sweeney’s excellent book Maximum Adverse Excursion looks at this subject in detail and enables traders who are systematic to accurately compute at which point a trade must go against you, before the chances of that trade becoming a winner are remote. Once you know that you can then analyze the length of time a trade should be given before risk increases to unacceptable levels. However, for the more touch trader it requires detailed logs and access to back data to even begin to look at what works. Therefore, looking to see if exact timing points can be created (beyond such things as cycle or Gann type analysis, which often give too wide a timing window to be of use to many traders), is one way of getting timing right. One such method is the movement of price too, or the changing of value of what’s called control. This is the point of most time in any trend including the current one and the previous. Two such Timing patterns have connected together in both the S*P and Gold this week. First to Gold which has seen a rally that earlier in the week finally went to the control of the previous trend dating back to June last year at 900 (see Fig 1). Reactions can be expected 80% of the time on the first visit, but it is subsequent visits that can become more problematic. The key to gold’s next move came when the S*P rallied into Wednesday and Gold dropped. The common pattern of the last few months has been the opposite. Therefore gold had switched its allegiance and was simply rotating back down from a powerful resistance. Confirmation of this switch came as the Wednesday saw the S*P also hit is control (see Fig 2). The reaction was a day delayed but the fall created the desired affect on gold as it rallied directly back to control. Fig 1. Price comes up to control on Gold Figure 2. The S* P does the same 3 days later. Friday has seen a gap higher in the pit hours of Gold and while it remains above 900 the outlook is bullish. Conversely the S* P below 866 maintains the pressure there as well. Next week we will be looking at control shifts and how they can time trades. If you have any comments or questions they can be posted on the I-Traders comment section within the Blog page or on the forum of Traders laboratory.

I'm sure its valid, especially after such a long holiday. I write a daily commenatry on Taiwan so am very familar with how the influence of the S*P can be. It will be very instructive to see Mondays price action. For the S*P 807 and 866 is the range so closes outside that dictate the next trend. With the S*P having its worst January performance ever the bias is definetly down. cheers Shaun Shaun

If you gp to http://www.strategyrunner.com they should have some systems and means to transmit automatically. Shaun

Market Analysis Video from January 23, 2009. TL! Videos

Markets reverse or accelerate around holidays This statement is one of the key mantras and components of I-Traders philosophies as many years experience has shown how often pivotal moments around such times occur. Of course not all markets will do this around every holiday, but with this being the first of the calendar year, it is one of the most important, as strategic players look to allocate the first substantial positions of the year. The period of Xmas and the New Years as shown in the video blog of Jan 3 highlighted some potential areas of interest and some conclusions can already be made. The rally in stocks lasted just two days in what was a failed attempt to build a higher trend. For bulls, the extinguishing of optimism and the theory that a wall of money was ready to coming off the sidelines being proved false is very disappointing. The market is obviously is still happy to get almost no yield. Fridays decoupling of gold from the stock market was also a sign of nervousness. Most Index’s are close to or below there December lows and as it stands, the S*P would need to rise more than 100 points from its current value to signal that an uptrend was sustainable. This has been a common pattern as most of the trends mentioned were short lived, although in contrast to Index’s, Bond markets (especially Uk Gilts) provided a swift opportunity and have still to make new highs. Underperformance of Gilts looks to remain a common theme. Therefore, it is to the commodities that focus concentrates and especially grains and softs. Much has been said about how tracker funds will have to rebalance and what impact that would have into the months end. For a pure Technical Analyst that news is already in the price and largely irrelevant. For me I traded fundamentals and core price action long before technical’s and therefore find it impossible to ignore what is the supposed justification for market behaviour. Therefore, it is worth noting via Open Interest and the Commitment of Traders how the former on some grains are as much as 50% lower than a year ago, and on the latter, how funds are short coffee. Both facts mean that whilst the level of participation is unlikely to reach the heady levels seen previously, there is still plenty of fuel, if strategic players deem baskets of commodities as an attractive asset class. Soybeans appear to be the most interesting from both a fundamental and technical viewpoint. Monday Jan 12th saw an overnight rally on poor weather in Argentina, dramatically put in its place by a bearish monthly and quarterly USDA report which saw a move to limit down, with the spot month showing even larger falls. The subsequent price action through the rest of the week is highly instructive. The first is the lack of follow-through on the subsequent days, with an inability to even post a lower close than Monday. By Friday the market has almost erased all of the losses. This is a classic example of bad news good action, and is a phenomenon I am constantly on the look out for in all markets. For the trader, the first sign that the long side could be reengaged on a somewhat crude basis was Thursdays break above the post breakdown weeks high at 992 in the March contract, as fears of poor weather and continued unprecedented demand from China resurfaced. A private report questioning Brazil’s crop size also set off a swift rally, which highlights the markets sensitivity to bullish stories. The wide ranging day of the USDA report has left behind what is called an Inside Bar pattern, or for Drummond’s geometry users, a blocking bar. However, both patterns from a classical analysis viewpoint require a close outside of the range that has been created since Jan 12. Looking in closer detail and by manipulating the historical data to the pit only highs (essential if you are to understand where the concentration of volume and price activity lies), reveals that a negative Island Reversal has been quickly erased as the gap has been filled. It is worth noting that the rally began on December 5th with the opposite pattern (see Fig1). This leads me into methods of qualifying classic patterns. Figure 2 shows two such confirmation tools on the all session chart. The first is the black arrow which signifies divergence on the Rsi. The proper quantification of divergence is a vast subject and one that has taken me decades to even come some way to doing so in a practical and useful manner. Without going in depth the signal is derived by taking different relationships between price action and the indicator so that absolute highs or lows that would traditionally be referenced in divergence, are ignored and new relationships that are far more accurate and rare are created. This is evident by the Rsi itself appearing to have no divergence at all. (See chapter 4 of Trading Time for more detail). The horizontal lines on the chart are another study called Range Deviation Pivots (see chapter 1 Trading Time), and whilst there are many uses and methods for this indicator, one of the core ones is when price closes beyond the 3rd Deviation Pivot. This combination of an Island, divergence and then expansion of range beyond its current statistical norm confirm a powerful reversal in trend. Another crucial element that Cqg allows for in the area of data manipulation is the ability to create continuations based on one contract month. This particularly applies to seasonal markets, so that proper relationships can be analysed. A common one is new crop/old crop and figure 2 is a continuation of the new crop which is November. The chart plots the whole year of November before rolling. Figure 1 Figure 2 Returning to the recent price action, of far more significance is the fact that Wednesday the control point moved from the low of the trend to the top of the trend (see fig 3). That moment is often the trigger for a fresh trend, which began the following day. Effectively the point of most time is the point of fair value and when this shifts the markets perception of value does the same. In the absence of being overbought, the bias is that the trend will continue, providing price stays above that fair value point or for the more aggressive player, above a closing low of the blocking/inside bar. With the holiday now coinciding with this shift in momentum, the opportunity to rally sharply is in place. Whilst the supports, break out points and momentum are clear (as this involves analysis of the current trend), a key component of my analysis when the current trend is unbalanced, is to use the previous trend as the basis of all potential resistance points. That trend began in July last year. This is where good technical analysis software and deep accurate databases become critical in your ability to decipher the markets road map so that good sound structured trades can be implemented. Cqg is the best in the market at doing so. Figure 4 shows the previous trend and what is clear is the fact that once price in the current trend held above 985, it opened up what I refer to as a vacuum. This is an area where the previous trend spent little time. Little time equals little resistance as price is free to move quickly up the vacuum to where a previous distribution low (more time) began. This remains a considerably distance away at 1182. A minor level appears at a gap at 1121 and what the first point of reference. Figure 3. Wednesday sees control move higher. Fair value is at the top of the trend. Figure 4. The previous trend. Note how it only uses the pit only data In conclusion, the opportunity for a trend has many of the classic ingredients which makes early this week a crucial time. If you have any comments or questions they can be posted on the I-Traders comment section within the Blog page or on the forum of Traders laboratory.