gandalf33

My 2 cents on the original question about Felton Trading. Traders International - somebody here says Roger Felton was a former moderator there. Googling Traders International reveals a rather LARGE amount of scam warnings. Could be wannabe traders who didn't make it and blame everyone else, but I'd much more believe it's pure snake oil. They are charging $7000 per member. To me, a former employee going and creating a company on his own, doing the same things, means one thing only - he saw how easy is to make a sheetload of money while not knowing how to trade, just putting in some swings, some EMAs and talking about it all day long. He saw how easy this is and became greedy because he didn't want to see all the money go into the TI's head's pockets. So he created his own firm doing just the same, asking about the same amount of money (around $6500 I believe). This is not unusual for employees of ANY company - doesn't have to be trading related. To me, because of the reasons stated, Felton sounds like a heck of a snake oil and thus I'd rather stay away from it. Somebody mentioned here - there's no shortcuts, you've got to spend time with the charts (a LOT OF TIME). While there's so much more behind this one sentence, that by just reading it it won't help anyone, I believe it's true.

A quick comment to the "Know what you want" part. Firstly, I've read on numerous places/media that this should be your first thing regarding trading (e.g. Van Tharp's book, etc). After spending 2 years learning patterns, backtesting and reading about trading, I then realized that this is really the most important thing to do, realizing what you want might save you thousands of dollars and months of time. Then I've thoroughly pondered what I really want in life and it took me 2 whole days to figure it out and some hours occasionally to review that. I'm willing to bet, that 0.1% of people, even reading that knowing what you want (and pondering that to the bottom) is the first thing they should do, will actually do it, and not just do it, give these thoughts the time they need. 0.1% - or less. So much for the first point of the list.

BlowFish, I believe the way of trading you describe (higher %, lower RRR) has it's drawbacks too. You will still occasionally hit a losing string and those losses can be devastating (e.g. if you lose 2x or 3x more than your 1 winning trade size). But it's a personal choice - for me, higher win % and stability is more important than earning more money per contract thru lower win % and profit targets behind the horizon'.

Thanks to all of you guys, for the inspirational insights. I've spent the last 3 days rendering videos around the clock (except for trading), and I've come to a conclusion. I've tried CamStudio, recorded a 4m 45s session, realized it takes 229 MB, which resulted into an estimated 2.5 hours session size of 7 GB - unacceptable. I then realized CamStudio uses the default codec Microsoft Video 1 to encode the result, a codec built in year 1992. Then I've made extensive testing with all the available codecs using CamStudio, I've noted all the results down but none of them was what I was expecting - file size too large, the lowest one taking 1.8 GB. I went on testing the FlashDemo software - the result was slightly more satisfactory on low quality setting (FlashDemo has two options: high quality and low quality...) but the final file is a .swf file, where the current position is marked with the current segment played, e.g. 357 / 892, not minutes. Plus Camtasia says the limit for swf files is 16 000 frames, which for a 2.5 hour would result into less than 1 frame per second... I returned to Camtasia and played with it for two days. I'm gonna spare you all the million tests I did and just let you know the result: - when producing the file in Camtasia Studio 7, use the custom format - choose AVI - choose TechSmith Sceen Capture Codec - leave the key frame to be created every 80 frames - use frame rate 10 - click on codec configuration and slide the slider to the leftmost side - all the way to 'Fast Compression' - use High Color (16-bit) My result of today's trading session: length: 2h 31m resolution: 1920 x 1200 (!) quality: crystal clear file size: 115 MB (!!) rendering time: 1h 30m ...which is an absolutely stunning result. One of the lowest rendering times I had with the highest quality I had, combined with one of the lowest file sizes I had (and I've rendered A LOT of vids in the past two days). And here's why. Take these as hints when rendering your own tradin session vids: - don't use 256 colors. Dithering, trying to 'get close' to another color pixelates the whole picture, which then actually takes more space than when you use 16-bit color - don't use 24-bit color (True Color). 16-bit color (High Color) takes reasonably less space and there's absolutely no telling which one you are using by looking with your eyes - I've tried lower resolutions, even 1600x1000 made the video a bit "fuzzy" (still usable though), while the file size dropped just a bit (I went down to as low as half of the original res). Keeping 1920x1200, the recorded resolution, makes the vid beautiful to the eye (looking exactly as it happened) while there's no big raise in the file size - I wanted every single tick to be seen on the vid - I've observed the original action vs a 5 frames per second video very precisely for a long time next to each other, and I couldn't find the difference. Using 10 fps then is a safe bet to me, containing every tick change. - beware of switching windows. When you are recording the price changes in your trading software, try switching to other software/desktop/internet explorer/instang messaging to minimum, or don't use those while you are trading, at all. They have a horrible effect on the file size. The 2.5 hours taking 115 MB in 1920x1200 quality (which is more than FULL HD today) does not contain a single screen switch. If I would switch to Internet Explorer 15-20 times during my trading session, the size would go up to 300 MB That's all folks, thanks again and hope my findings will help somebody. Enjoy

Greetings, I've recently tried to record my 2.5 hour trading session using Camtasia Studio 7, the resul was horrible - I had to scale down the framerate to 5 per second and then produce it, the video was being produced for 2 hours, and a 1.5 GB file of 1 trading day was spit out. I'm looking for the same thing - making a video of my trading screen for 2.5 hours - but with reasonable processing time and size (few 100 MBs max). Any other software recommended for this?

Thanks for the clarification Justaguy, sounds like playing swing breaks. There's something with the 'screamshot' however, as instead of it a red cross is present. I've given it a lot of pondering this weekend, and I took the advice of some truly great traders I know, and will spend the next weeks studying and observing price action. Filtering trades based on S/R bounces/reversals, etc., seems to be the another part of that artistic bit in trading.

MadMarketScientist, a very valuable post, valuable information. Thanks for that. You mention that 10% of your trading is not mechanical, and that you're yet to meet a consistently profitable mechanical trader. Seems that the 10% makes all the difference then! Perhaps another reason for me to imply the artistic approach to trading - we will see over time, as I have traded more. My comments to your advices: - backtesting; couldn't agree with you more. While testing a simple idea that can be programmed to see whether it has perspective or not is where automatic testing can have a certain value I think (although I have never done that), I absolutely agree that manual backtesting is a must. I have done many thousands of trades of many systems on historical data, thousands using the 'unleashing the historical chart bar after bar' method, where the 'historical future' is not seen, and thousands where I see the whole chart and just look for entries. Manual backtesting and 1000s of trades develop a feel for what the market can do; which is something you reap the fruit from later on, during live trading. I've actually backtested so much that I've developed a certain manual backtesting system that mentally prepares the trader's psyche for success, a method I've never seen anywhere before. Too long to describe but I can PM it to you if you'd be interested, although obviously you don't need it anymore. - adjusting entries around round numbers; I think I will put a note how my trades would have went if I was adjusting them using this rule, and then observe the long-term effect. I noticed that the market often bounces off exactly from round numbers on YM which I'm trading, and felt like I can put something discretional in place around those round numbers, but I didn't yet know what. Not sure how you do it, but you've nailed it again... - clear-cutting recent swings; I sincerely have no idea what this means. Can you shortly elaborate please.. Thanks again for the concrete & sound advices, and regards.

Justaguy, for traders on the crowded side of the barricade, psychology plays a role more important than the system, where 65% win ratio could make a world of difference to trading results, as compared to, let's say, 35% win ratio. Why? A long story. I myself am playing with the great DD technique in my options trading, where an approach accompanying impressive drawdowns also brings by far the most money in, over the long haul.. MadMarketScientist, you nailed it absolutely exactly. Before I wrote that post of mine, I even used the same words for myself (reading about discretionary elements in mechanical trading led me to think "Aha! So this is where trading becomes an art..."). Thanks for the insights, from your post, it seems to me, that the artistic part of 'overriding the rules' as you describe it, stems only from sheer experience / screen time... which is the bad news Nevertheless I believe it's worth pursuing. If there's any kind of what you think is an effective resource on the topic which you can point me to, can you please PM me about it - or perhaps post it here, hoping that it won't be off-topic that much. Thanks in advance.

What I'm experiencing in the past days, is that a day-trading system has going to generate an overwhelming amount of losses if the trading is done 100% according the plan, when the system is purely mechanical. Although profitable at the end of the month, these profits are gained by oscillating around the profit with many, many trades. It seems to me, like the signal from indicators should also be accompanied by a non-programmable setup (take these words as an illustration, I don't trade automatic systems). Perhaps the signal should also have a double top/bottom, maybe a breakout, or a divergence between the price and one of the indicators, or something else present AT THE TIME when the clear signal from the indicators is visible? The result of such a system, trading setups not just mere signals, might be the desired 65% win ratio, and a psychologically much better win-loss distribution than a pure mechanical system. This might be the hardest roadblock for me. Can anybody confirm this experience please?

MM, in life, and ESPECIALLY in trading, doing what works for one, and at the same time letting others do what works for them, is the greatness in people, as opposed to claiming that "my truth is the only truth in the world".

No. That was merely loud thinking about race's principles & foundations. I'm new to trading and recently realized I wouldn't join any kind of race for the next few years. Then, maybe. I see you have already joined, and what I wish you is surpassing your goal. Yes. The words 'more likely' are perfectly accurate here. In my opinion, and a humble one here, if 50 people will join such a race ($5k to $100k), and we point a finger to one single trader before it starts, whom we know about he's the best (perhaps by much larger gains each year than the 2nd best from those 50), then this trader would perhaps end in top 10 of 50 contestants. Someone would be celebrated as the winner, with the real winner being amongst the top, but not on the top by the luck of others. If this race is then repeated 20 times, maybe he would end on the first place once, and consistently wind up amongst the top 10-15 people, maybe top 5. That's a good trader to me, not the actual winners changing from race to race. However, the same person is more likely to arrive at a million over and over again if race's to be repeated - something that's "lost" by reducing the goal size, thus giving luck more room. But, perhaps wham I'm talking about here, would be more true for $5k into $20k, not $100k. Thus I really cannott know at the moment - one man's opinion here.

What about $5k to $100k? I know the word "million" is more appealing and $5k to $100k in 20 weeks even seems realistic, losing the absolute fascination of the original idea, but maybe the realism of it is the beauty of it, which would keep the contestants still going. And maybe not, since I did not see any contestant even shifting through the $5k in their accounts. I think that who has not made $1 mill in trading yet (which is perhaps 95-99% of SUCCESSFUL traders?) will not be able to withstand the pressure of trading $500k if they never had this amount in their accounts before, which is only half-way... (half-way in terms of money, but I admit, perhaps the last stage of trading $3k to a million). This fact alone greatly lowers the already tiny chances for the race to end successfully. But with $5k to $100k, we're perhaps talking more luck than skill and that race would become too common compared to others - that I really don't know.

rxs0005, in my opinion, if your system is earning money in backtest and you're not earning money in real trading (although not losing), you simply have to find out why - what you do differently in your backtest than in real trading. And if you find this reason, work on it. That's all.

Thanks zdo for the inspirations of how to overcome this pain that I internally believe, is the source of failure for the majority of traders, whether they admit it or not (as in trading, the tree of consequences of feeling pain from losses is just huge). But not for once have I given up the idea that I can master it. The goal is to become independent from personal feelings when seeing a trade come to an end, whether it ends with a gain or with a loss. At this point in my life I believe this goal is achieved by embracing the naked fact of the slope of the equity curve. Does it go steadily up? Not by far. Does it yield a nice profit every month? Yes, it does. So? I have to accept it - my backtest shows this clearly and dearly - I might get 7, even 10 losers in a row, and most of my trading will be small losses accompanied by small wins with an occasional larger win, which does the profits. If I can't accept this then I'm not fit trading my strategy. I have to fully accept this fact, or not trade. Once again as 'repetition is the mother of knowledge' as they say in my country: I have to know exactly, what I can expect from my pattern setups and trading rules (exit strategies meant primarily here). Knowledge of this is so powerful, it alleviates trading a bit immediately. If I study trade after trade of my historical trades and see with my own eyes again and again that small losses followed by small wins come in great numbers, with some mid-sized and a few larger wins somewhere in between, making a perfect month in terms of profits, then what the hell is my problem seeing small wins and small losses come in days after days in sim/live? The problem is simple - the common knowledge that "to achieve, one has to build by adding more and more to it" (this is contrary to seeing chips fall off the equity curve) and that "if you do something and the result is not good, fix it", are too much ingrained in me. Can I be blamed for it? Abso-freaking-lutely not, as every sane person in the world who first approaches trading, provided he's more than 10 years old, has to have those already ingrained or else there's something wrong with him! The matter in my eyes is simple - in terms of trading, overcoming the feelings resulting from those two ingrained statements, seeing adverse effects of those in real-time and perceiving them good. And how to overcome an ingrained thing? By constant repetition. In other words, the more trading you do, seeing your success, the less impact losses have on you. This immediately means one thing - the beginnings is what matters. You have to force yourself into trades and exit according your rules and not according fears resulting from those ingrained. Sounds familiar with a general advice "follow your plan"? ... Also, how many people from 100 in real life are able to willingly overcome a habit they've been rehearsing since their early childhood, now being second nature to them? Perhaps 5-10%? Does this amount ring any bells? Understanding why one feels what he feels counts for sooo much. That's one of the reasons why I will make it in trading, whatever the odds or obstacles. In other terms, it's exactly what you wrote too zdo - poker = learn to lose, Larry's slot machines = learn to lose, preparing ahead of time, in my perception this equals studying your historical trades one by one for months and months and seeing a lot of losing streaks while being profitable month after month = learn to lose.... so thanks for your post once again. You are right with it, it's just that the aspiring traders have to see the reasons for what and why is happening to them.

While I agree with that - this definitely is a reason for trader's gravestones, I personally don't think this is the main one - undercapitalization and making expectations realistic is rather 'easy to spot' before you even begin trading, so you can prepare. I believe the inability to perceive losses as part of trading is the #1 (something you can't prepare for) - this single reason causes hope, changing the system (re-working it and starting anew while the previous one was profitable), taking trades out of plan, etc.