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dla133
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Everything posted by dla133
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Thankyou for your suggestion. I will take a look at it. Cheers Lee
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Thanks Gassah for the info. I will take a look at that website also
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I found the following web site call Stock Reflex. Welcome To Stock Reflex - Your Stock Market Analysis Tool with a Twist Had a bit of a play with the demo, and it does basically what I want it to do. Cheers Lee
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I agree that it could be done as simple as that, however I thought it would be more fun to do it a bit more realistic, as in you click a button and the next chart loads. Cheers Lee
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I am starting to try and look at the market in more of a Wyckoff way using end of day prices. This is because this is the way I want to trade in the future after the market closes and not get too emotional during the live prices. To help me in my learning process I have been slowly going through the posts in this forum, especially the stickies and trading the Wyckoff way. My question is this, is there any software out there that allows you to go backwards and run the daily charts without seeing the right hand side. So I could go back to the start of 2009 and reveal each day at a time on the chart and see how I get on. I know I could just create a chart and hide the prices but I thought it would be more fun and more realistic to do it without seeing the info at all. Cheers Lee
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Hi Gringo, Thanks for the response and guidence. 1) How much time are you willing to spend on learning and unlearning? However long it takes is the simple answer. I have a quote printed out which sits above my computer screen on the wall by Winston Churchill. Never, Never, Never give up. The way I see it is that I have found several ways so far that didn't work for one reason or another, and I am one step closer to finding out what does work. 2) How much time are you willing to devote on daily or weekly analysis? I normally spend around 2 hours a day when I get home from work in the week and approx 6 - 8 hours at wekends. 3) Do you really want to be dealing with markets or would you feel better off giving your money to a professional? This is the whole reason for me wanting to learn to trade my own funds intelligently. I know people who have used professionals who have then lost money. The only thing they learned was that the professional had a bad run. They learned nouthing about the market. I want to learn from my mistakes and take responsibility for my own financial future. 4) How long do you think it will take you to figure this all out? I don't think I will ever figure this out completely, does anybody? I just want to see improvements with consistancy over 1 year to the next.
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Thanks for the replies guys. I want my trading to take a longer term view point if that is possible for the following reason. I want to make sensible investments with strong long term probability of success. Can Wyckoff help me identify the major moves? For example the financial sector as we all know has seen a tremendous sell off. Can Wyckoff help determine the time to make a trade once the long term trend has shifted? With ETF's I can move from sector to sector within the market when the odds of success in each sector turn to my favour. I suppose I am looking for a tool to help me identify when this is. DB you mention in your post "Your biggest hurdle may be resolving the conflict between long-term B&H and short-term trading. " I don't want to be a pure buy and hold trader, however at this moment I don't feel I have the skill to move my money in and out of the market better than buy and hold. For example if I had left my money in the fund for the entire 5 years then I would have returned another 100% on my capital. Would Wyckoff help me with this? Maybe what I should be asking is do you think successfull Wyckoff students could do better than buy and hold? Cheers Lee
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I have been trading Funds for over 5 years and have learned a great lesson from Bill ONeil. He advises bying a solid common growth fund and then sit and wait, don't think just sit. I did this right through the bear market and put more money in as the market went down. As the market collapsed I remained positive and kept telling myself that this IS the time to invest and NOT run away scared. Over the last 12 months I am now up 15%. This is where 95% of my trading capital is. I have tried to use the CANSLIM method of investing and so far have failed. I always seem to get stopped out. My opinion is that IBD is great for helping you find good strong fundermentals on companies however the technical side for me is a little too bit like a dummies guide. I read a book on Jessie Livermore and was intrigued by his pivot point theory, however I can't seem to find too much on exactly how he did this. I then came to hear of Wyckoff and have started reading about his trading style. I feel that what he had to say about the markets makes sense, as does CANSLIM when it comes to the fundermentals. So my conclusion is I should use IBD to find companies with strong fundermentals and use Wyckoff to trade this stocks. I am just wondering if anybody else out there does this? DbPhoenix and gassah please keep up the great work you are doing on this forum as well as all you other posters out there too many to mention. While I am learning this method which I know will take years and not months I have decided to invest in ETF's rather than individual stocks so I can still benefit over the next few years from this severe bear market. Do you think ETF's could be traded using Wyckoff or am I better to take the buy and hold approach like my Funds? Thanks for reading this post and hopefully when I get more experienced and start to show some individual trading success I will be able to guide other inexperienced traders like myself in the future. Cheers Lee
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Thanks Guys for your input.
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Thanks for that information. Is there a particular reason why they choose the 240 minute chart? Cheers Lee
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Thanks again DB. I look forward to posting my progress over the next few years. Notice I say years not days as I already know this will take a long time before I will see the fruits of my labour. EOD trading may be better for me, only time will tell. My intension is too give myself around 3 hours a day to watch, analyse, and learn. I will look at real time data while the markets are open and also look at the EOD data and write my thoughts accordingly. The live data will be for possible short term scalping and the EOD for a more long term approach. Which one I will finaly settle on will be which one I feel more comfortable with. People may say you shouldn't look at both as its too much for a beginner. I say unless I look at both how will I know which one I prefer. I hope that with the help of this forum and guys like yourself sharing your experiences I will find my own path to success. Cheers Lee
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Thanks again DB, To give you a better understanding of my journey so far, please read the following. I started my investment journey with Mutial Funds inside what we call in the UK an ISA Wrapper. Basically all your investment including returns is TAX FREE. Once I became comfortable with these (Getting used to watching my account rise and drop in £1000's) and believing what I was doing was right. Since then I have had a fair bit of success even with this current bear market. Rather than become fearfull of loosing my capital, I see opportunities to invest at reduced prices. I then wanted to look at ways to invest/trade to earn around £15,000 a year. I can only trade early in the morning or last few hours in the evening because of my full time job. This money would allow me to invest the maximum allowance inside my ISA account each year (including my wifes) without putting undue stress on our finances. I have placed trades in the FX market and stock market via spread betting, won some and lost some. Over the last 2 years I am probably down around £3000 (this shows how amateurish my approach is since I can't even tell you what I have lost). What I am about to say my shock some people and make others nod in agreement. Each time I traded I had no belief in what I was doing. I would sit and hope I was right rather than believe I was right. When the trades started going against me I would loose faith in what I was doing and trade out. So many times as I traded out, the market would then go in my favour and I would loose out. Fear was may greatest enemy as I had no belief in what I was doing. I used indicators, read books, listened to other people untill my mind was a complete and utter trash can. Now the good bit Since reading some posts in this forum I feel a light has come on. That is trading via price and volume action. Looking for supply and demand. Guys in the past made very successful careers in trading way before all this fancy technical analysis was around by purely reading the tape. Understanding what the market is doing right NOW, rather than what it was doing yesterday. I know it seems obvious but, we are trading in the NOW not in the PAST. Yes history can give us key areas of market behaviour (Support / Resistance) but it can't predict what will happen in those areas in the future. Actually watching the market action in those areas in real time is the only way to know what is going on at that precise time. Who is in charge the BULLS or the BEARS? When reading Wyckoff and other similar material, it all seems to make sense. So I am going to start my journey again, with BELIEF in what I am now doing rather than HOPE and FEAR. With the help of some experienced people on this forum I am confident I will become a far better trader. Will I actually become a successfull trader, who knows? Finally to give a little analogy. I used to do quite a lot of weight lifting in the past and would read all the modern fitness books on how to train. They would give all the fine details about different specific exercises. I tried all different approaches and saw very little improvement over a 2 year period. I then discovered old weight training books by guys who trained years before steriods and fancy machines. They basically told you the only way to progress was to add weight to the bar eevery time you trained or do more lifts with the same weight. They advocated big basic lifts using the entire body, rather than small individual exercises for individual muscles. This all seemed to make sense to me and so of I went to the gym with real belief in what I was doing. I made more progress in the next 6 months than I had made in the previous 2 years. What I am trying to say here is that my belief is that understanding Supply and Demand is the basics of trading and without that you will make very little real progress. Sorry for going on here quite a bit but you can hopefully see how excited I am to actualy feel I am now on the right track. Cheers Lee
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Thanks DB, Wise words indeed. Here is my thought process so far. I want to trade a market that is liquid. FX seems to do that but it may be too liquid for me and my little skill. I have seen the FX markets move 400 - 500 pips quite a lot. Indexes are also liquid but seem in my eyes a little less volitile. I don't know if I have got this completely wrong but here goes. The more volitile the price movements, the better trader you need to be to react to those movements. So since I am still learning and my skills will be slow, I need a market that moves a little slower so I can keep up. Am I on the right track with this thought process? Cheers Lee
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Thanks, I have sey up a demo account with Sierra. DBPheonix, If all I want to do is trade currencies and indexes, which package from 1 to 8 would you suggest? Could I get away with the most basic package for now? This would be package 1 priced at 17.5 USD. Cheers Lee
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I have done some more reading over the past few days and have gained a better understanding of the basics of supply, demand, support, and resistance. I understand that one way of trading is to look for key areas of support and resistance and watch the price and volume action around those areas. The tape reading books that I have read so far put volume as the most important indicator to highlight supply and demand. At this moment I can only get price action on my charts. If I wanted to trade via volume rather than mainly price, how would I go about doing this? This relates to live rather than end of day volume. Cheers Lee
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Thanks everyone ofr your help. I now have plenty of reading to do and will hopefully learn.
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I have been looking into different methods of trading and have decided I want to concentrate my trading decisions around price action. Can anybody please tell me some classic books that teach you how to trade without using any information apart from price information? Kind Regards Lee