johnjohn1hew

Lately i have been looking at the AHG method and have noticed similarities between that method and all other price action methods. AHG trades only price, using support and resistance, trend lines, price patterns, volume, market internals, market profile, etc. as confirmation. If you're not familiar with the AHG i have included a pdf of the original AHG method that contains snippets from the enormous journal on Elitetrader. In this thread post your analysis of charts using your method in conjunction with the AHG method. Lets see what we can learn from this. AHG Bible Full Version.pdf

Hey Gabe, right after you posted that long setup i posted the exact same chart in a 5 min. interval, but i had a bearish outlook. A double top was forming and the 15 minute did not show this. You should watch more than one interval for confirmation.

The GBPUSD looks like it is rounding downwards in the 5 min. forming a double top. This could create a short setup.

The 1 min. appears to be finding resistance, but i want to see the trend line broken first before i look for a short opportunity.

Maybe out to early...but i still got out. No momentum on the break up = not for me.

The long EURJPY trade that i am in right now is at the HOD, but there is no force to the break up...so my stop is tight. I guess no one (right now) wants to see it go higher. Edit: Just exited. Didn't like the trade form the beginning. Would have wanted momentum on the break, but nothing came in. The 5 min was forming top like action and the 1 min. was dead. I got around 11 pips in total.

EURJPY setting up a long... Edit: Wow, didn't realize it was a 2 minute chart. Not my normal view.... Edit2: On the 15 min. it could be a short as well, but the trend (IMO) is up for now.

The long looks good, but i won't trade it as the RR does not meet my criteria...my first target would be the magenta line (midpoint of range) and the stop would be below the lowest black line. Also, the main trend is up...so no shorts for me.

Hey jon, have you ever tried to dissect these larger timeframe moves using a 1 min. chart? I know that when i see an opportunity in a 15 minute chart, all i have to do is look at the 5 min and/or the 1 min and i spot entry opportunities. Also, it is extremely hard to call tops and bottoms (it's basically predicting), so why be contrarian? Why not go with the flow? I always assume continuation and then go from there. When a DB or DT forms, you should wait until the pattern actually indicates a reversal (ie. breaks past the midpoint and stays past it). Another point: if you want into a breakout for the long run, then why not wait for a retracement/pullback back to see if prior support will act as resistance. Your stop is then protected and you have a high-reward-low-risk trade. And another: wait for multiple confirmation - It decreases the risk. Use things like trend lines, candle patterns, volume (higher on BO, low on pullback), s/r levels (swings, long-term levels, etc.), market internals, etc. If this method you have been using is not working out for you then drastically change everything. You're a young guy and following this specific method could cause you to just give up...something that i am pretty sure you do not want to do. Send me a PM if you are interested in some of the materials that i have been collecting that i think could help you (i'm looking for a partner in my research). Note: I am just a beginner, so just take these things as suggestions, and not as the answer to making money.

Here is my interpretation of Don's chart...

That LH after the double top is a beautiful setup...Risk less than reward...slight pullback after a pretty powerful drop. Hindsight gives you the ability to say that it was not where you would have considered a LH...even though it clearly was...

Here is the USDCHF moving in the same fashion. I would think the breakout would eventually be to the upside...but who knows. Demand increasing and supply consistently becoming weaker at higher prices.

Here's a larger view of the EURUSD. Support is consistently holding with the rallies off if it consistently become shorter. ie. Supply continuously coming in lower and lower and lower. Could this mean a eventual break to the downside?...we'll see.

Well i have to go catch a bus, so i won't be able to watch anything for about an hour, so here are the two potential opportunities i was waiting for: USDCAD breakout out, as explained in my prior posts; and GBPUSD pattern to form as it is now at the high of the channel it was in - could go even higher to make a new channel top, but i don't know so i wait for a movement that screams breakout (to the downside as the main trend is down).

More progress....Now i have a 'potential' stop loss target. Could just be bouncing off the top of the range, but who knows.

Some progress..............

Here is my observations on the USDCAD.

I don't want to ruffle feathers here nor upset anyone, but to me, bars are irrelevant. Dbphoenix and others are always saying this... Price is moving, you trade the movements...This approach could be done using a line chart, but the range of price is important. I just want to keep things simple. I just have a feeling that a lot of focus has been on individual bars lately. Sure, i'm just a beginner (and what do i know, right?), but the theory is sound.

Maybe you shouldn't try to pick bottoms or tops. Initiate trades with the trend and assume a continuation...just my opinion. I'm saying this because i can't tell when a top or bottom has been reached, so i look for opportunities in the direction of the trend. This is another thing i like about this approach - you don't predict, you let the market do what its going to do - if it moves in your favor, then so be it. Also, i want to see price action that i can understand and is directionally inclined.

It's interesting that this move is basically taking place right off the demand line from the trend that started yesterday.

Like i said, i saw a countertrend opportunity. Price was in a defined uptrend within the main downtrend. It was right on the demand line...thought i saw a good opportunity for a long. My analysis was just based on the trend lines. Makes me even more convinced to stick to trades that are in-sync with the main trend.

Goes to show you what over-observation can do. Observe and analyze what you want, but only trade what is obvious - requires discipline...patience. It would foolish if i did not try to learn something from everything i do.

Dissecting that EURJPY move using the 1 min,, price is finding resistance at the midpoint of the range...not good for the upside. Maybe this dissection can be used to keep me out of trades...

EURJPY opportunity. This is countertrend as the movement is still in the main downtrend supply line. It is on the demand line of a new uptrend that could go up to the main supply line, but who knows.... EDIT: you can't see the main supply line of the main trend (down) - sorry.

Thanks, Thales. When i look at my EUR/USD's first target it looks like i was being over-optimistic - choosing the highest point of that zone and not the bottom, when i should have picked the most conservative level. If i had picked the bottom, i most likely would not have even hypothetically entered because of the high risk to reward.