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Nick1984
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Everything posted by Nick1984
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Trading With Market Statistics I. Volume Histogram
Nick1984 replied to jperl's topic in Market Profile
Have you considered using regression analysis to give a trading range for the day? If you plot Price against Volume and Time you can run a regression and following some tests for significane of your variables and whether you have unbiased estimators you can gague what the trading range of the day might be. -
I go away for a few days to study for my semester exams and there are 383 unread posts! You guys are making it hard to keep up! Type slower hehe. Walter with your CCI indicator on top of the rest of the stuff going on don't your eyes get tired watching all that? May seem like a weird question but I'm actually serious, I've found that a lot of those charts seem to make my eyes hurt the more I look at them.
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Ignorance question here for those not in the US but whats a Series 7?
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Ive usually found that a 5 min chart sends me off to sleep if thats my main chart cause its reallly boring. I love the 233t for my main and the 5 min for my long term with a 89 and 55 tick for timing the entry.
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What music do you listen to when you're trading?
Nick1984 replied to Nick1984's topic in General Discussion
LoL RATM before delving into the most capitalist of pursuits. Keeps the ol conscience clean! -
How many contracts are you trading? I would scale in only if i were to trade a heap of contracts. This is how professionals build up their portfolio so as to attract as minimal attention as possible and vice versa when they sell it off. Also on what time frame are you thinking of scaling in your buy orders? If your going in and out pretty quickly then is it worth all your trouble? Maybe if your swing trading then you can scale in your position on pull backs it can work but for day trading time frame seems like too much of a headache!
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Whats the time frame on your short Hull Don? The price seems to obey the trend line very well bouncing off it But I'm curious as to why you would go short there. On that chart those 2 four hour trend lines are showing an upward pattern and both hulls look to be bullish especially the longer term Hull. Wouldnt you wait first to see how price behaves once it reaches the upper trend line?
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Enjoy the holiday! Its been good to have you here, I've enjoyed your posts. Jealous of northern summer! Ahhh what I wouldn't give to be sitting at the beach with a slab of beer....
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Welcome to the forums mate! Man I thought I was young when starting out on my trading journey. You seem very mature at 19 moreso than most and its admirable to see that your thinking of your financial future at such a young age. I reckon that that trade you exited from early wasn't such a bad trade, you're being a bit harsh on yourself there. A profit in the pocket is always better than a profit on paper. You should feel proud that you stuck to your rules cause in the long run thats gonna make you more than the few missed points you could of taken along the way.
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Seems like spot FX is a whole different kettle of fish! I'll keep on watching it though and only once I feel comfortable enough as a futures trader would I consider spot FX. Walter, have you tested yet to see how well your strategies hold up to news announcements cause they can cause a lot of volatile movement in the markets! Slippage would become a large problem on those days and unscrupulous brokers would probabbly widen the spread significantly on those days. Didn't OANDA have a case not too long ago where there was a 200 pip spread at one stage on the GBPUSD?
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On the chart you posted up on this one the only thing that I could spot was that aren't you going against your flip trade on this one because the level at the 2nd pivot will act as resistance once you buy on the pull back to the trend line. The graph you posted up did exactly that where price stalls at the level of the 2nd pivot. Any other way you can measure the conviction of the up move without accurate volume?
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If we making a Bananna Republic, I bags the positon of Minister of Finance. A mate of mine has a t-shirt with that written on it...Good pick up line when you have your regular ministers conference held in Miami..."Hey babe, I'm the minister of finance for a bananna republic, wanna come meet el presidente?" And yes I probabbly would grow banannas on the island! haha its 2:13 am here now, i really need a lil sleep lol.
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Has anyone ever had a broker which allows them to short IPO's? Its damn rare to find a broker who can permit this cause they'll need to have access to shares for loan so you can do this. Most of the time I've found that IPO's always fall significantly within the first cpl hours of trading so you can make a nice little profit on the short side if you can bloody well short the damn things!
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I'm pretty sure IB has the data you're looking for. Even maybe the data from Incredible Charts! You get EOD data and a charting platform in one.
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Thanks for the quick reply! I'll follow this post to see how everything goes. Who knows one day once I'm making my regular k's in futures and i can afford to take a "study sabatical" to learn FX to try turn those K's into M's we can all chip in and buy an island somewhere in the pacific and start our own country. Turn it into a tax haven for traders who want to hold off shore accounts there!
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Nice post Walter. FX is something that is pretty new to me and I've never looked into it before. I want to focus on developing my skills in the futures markets before I start in FX or bonds. Personally if I ever dabbled in FX i would do AUD/USD. I like your trading strategy and going for a net 5 pips a day sounds like it will keep as much pressure off you as possible. If I got a good 20 pip or 30 pip trade I'd call it quits! When you're trading FX is it easy to get much leverage? I still see futures as having a much more leveraged investment where with 5k you can controll over 50k worth of assets. How can you get returns to scale like that with FX to make money an income comparable to futures trading? And why spot FX rather that FX futures? Sorry for all the questions Walter, don't know much about FX lol. Keep it up!
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I was watching the Benny Hill show and there was this skit which I found both funny but made me think. There was a man (Benny) who was standing in front of a plain brick wall and looking up. He just kept on standing there. A man walks by and sees Benny standing in front of the wall and wonders whats going on so he stands next to Benny and starts looking up as well. Another person comes, then another, and another and soon there is a small crowd of people all looking up at this plain brick wall. Benny then steps back and walks away while everyone keeps on staring up at this brick wall. The catch is that the whole time he had a neck brace on which wasn't initially visible cause of his coat so he was forced to keep on looking up. Point being: group mentality and mass delusions do exist. My question for the doc then in terms of trading: What is the best way to spot the sheep during your trading day and what makes people instinctively act like sheep when they trade? On Jame's videos he often reades the tape which I'm slowly trying to learn because it seems to give information as to where moves begin and end. Is there a way you can train yourself to learn who is actually being proactive and who is being reactive? If you can spot the real proactive movers from the rest and move as they do or even learn to anticipate their moves this would give you a great edge against the 95% of followers who cough up their hard earned.
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This is the point exactly, specualtion. How can a computer speculate, its cant! Its actions are completely reactionary. I'm pretty sure computer systems dont start gigantic moves. Discretionary traders will always have an edge. I like to use the analogy of car manufacturing: most car manufacturers have completely automated assembely lines and they can provide a high volume of cars for the markets. But the best cars are the ones that are still hand made! The Rolls, Aston Martins, Lambos, Elfin, Bentley etc... The hands on experience cannot compare in quality to the automated stuff. Some things computers can never do!
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I have a mate called Stefan, I call him Stef for short. Welcome aboard!
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Nick1984 replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Hey Vic, nice to see another Aussie on the boards! -
I don't look very far back for the previous value areas but i do pay attention to the POC for the last 1-2 weeks on a daily basis to see if there is any particular trend going on. Eg: If I see that for 3 days in a row the VAL and VAH have been moving steadily down especially if gapping down below previous days VAL, then i'd assume that the down trend would continue etc... Btw: how are you finding the liquidity on the SPI 200? Last time I checked it was still doing pretty crappy in contracts traded per day around the 3-5k contracts mark.
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Personally I think that the more automated systems that come out the better cause of all the extra liquidity in the markets they'll bring. There will always be no shortage of discretionary traders. Imagine the data vending industry and the trading platform industry and how much they will continue to improve their product to allow us to remain competitive against automated systems, cause if we all go so will their businesses! Like rolange just said above me, a computer can never learn to act exactly like a human can. How will a computer cope if there is a large market crash like in 1929? I dont think discretinary trading will die any time soon. But in James' scenario, ok discretionary traders may become extince in these prop trading firms and in large institution like banks etc, but the end result of that will be that they'll just keep on trading privately from home anyway. If you had a system which worked and you were consistently making profits on average, why would you want to go to a firm where they will take most of the profit?
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I would like to take this opportunity to offer out cyber cookies to all. Let the good vibes spread! Talking about vibes: one of the best feel good movies ever is this low budget Australian flic called "The Castle" I love it. If you can find it watch it!
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Just looked at the market internal tools offered by tradestation posted up by James and I saw the symbol $NHB.X which is described as the Beta of the NYSE. Now this is interesting. I'm assuming this indicator measured the market β of the NYSE itself as getting individual β's for different securities would be very difficult and costly. I'm not sure if you're all familiar with this following equation called the Capital Asset Pricing Model or CAPM: CAPM = rf - β (1 - rf) where rf is your risk free rate. Since most people here seem to be day traders or less than 3 month term swing traders I would assume that the 13 week treasury bonds would be your risk free rate. With the answer for CAPM you can discount a security and its future cash flows into the present value, and therefore see whether the observed market value is over or under priced. This is a very valuable bit of information if you're trading a security with known or predictable future cash flows i.e High cap stocks which pay out regular dividends with a relatively constant rate of growth in dividend payments (i know that not every single company pays out dividends on a constant growth rate but close enough is good enough). Question therefore for those who have ever used this indicator: do you know if that indicator actually does give off a reading for the estimated β of the NYSE?
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wow great read Don, thanks for that!