thalestrader

There's the break ...

Yen looks strong across the board and a break above 10774 should coincide with your short entry on the EURJPY.

I think he is bracketing a range, and therefore, if price triggers long, i.e. breaks out above the top of the range, then his short entry becomes his stop loss; and if price triggers his short entry, i.e. if price breaks down below the bottom of the range, then his long entry becomes his stop. Therefore, it makes sense that he uses one color to denote his possible entry points. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Forrest, How has the NQ trading been going for you? You had looked to be doing some excellent work before the summer hiatus. I'm one of those old fashioned guys who tends to still think the cash is important (which may explain why I still believe in the existence of gaps). Looking at the cash SP, I would anticipate that price should have difficulty breaking and holding above 1018. I was expecting this 1018 to print on Friday, but price fell short by a little less than 2 points. Had 1018 printed, then I would have anticipated a gap opening tomorrow below Friday's close tomorrow. I still expect that cash will open below friday's close, but not with the same confidence I'd have had 1018 printed Friday. If it does gap open lower, I would not be surprised if that gap is substantial. This is based simply on the breakdown below 1018 ... decline to 992 ... rally back to test 1018, i.e. trend is now down until until it is up, and I anticipate accordingly. Should trend confirm itself to have turned back up, then use S&R too trade accordingly. I see 992.50 is significant support. Should price get there, I would anticipate that support to fail to contain price, and SP500 should decline to test the June 956 high. Beyond that, we shall see. For what it is worth, I am short at 1018 (current 1019.50) and targeting 60 points. Of course, the market could not care any less about me, and it may be heading for 1060 rather than 960. We will know more by this time tomorrow. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Gabe, I generally prefer exchange traded to off-exchange traded products. I do not believe any of the brokers who offer spot fx actually have a true STP model, I do not like paying the spread. I do not like that the size of the spread is subject to change at the whim of the bucket shop. Also, I just do not like keeping much capital at a bucket shop. I've mentioned my good friend who trades spot fx and futures. He and I both had accounts at RefcoFX years ago. I also had my commodities trading account at Refco. I decided to move all of my trading capital to IB, and by sheer good luck, I pulled my capital and cashed my check days before Refco went bust. My friend is still waiting for his Refco-deposited capital (he isn't really expecting ever to see it again). In fact, he would have been out of trading but I grubstaked him so he could get back on is feet. I was able to do so only because of the fortuitousness of the timing of my decision to change brokers. My daughter's success not withstanding, I find retail foreign exchange still a little bit too "wild west" and frontier-like for my tastes. The past weeks and months offer a couple of good examples. My friend left FXCM because FXCM has made certain order types, in particular, stop losses and limit orders linked to entry orders, unavailable to US-based traders. I withdrew most of the capital from my daughter's FXCM account, and we were going to follow my friend over to Oanda and open an account for she and I to team trade during the school year. Then, last week, Oanda apparently had a platform issue where certain pairs were quoted at prices 50% or more off from actual prices. This caused many traders to suffer margin calls and debit balances. I presume that Oanda has corrected the errors to these folks's accounts, but why should I even open myself up to such frustration and financial danger? Instead of opening an Oanda trading account, I am in the process of funding a small 5K account at one of my brokers, Infinity Futures, that we will trade over the coming months. Others, of course, will no doubt disagree with my reasons, and that is fine. My friend continues to trade spot and futures, though I believe he has already left Oanda and is looking elsewhere. And I am not trying to disuade anyone from trading spot fx. In fact, next summer my daughter may very well want to go back to spot fx because she really enjoys trading the Yen pairs, especially the EURJPY. The EURJPY-based futures have little liquidity and seem basically to be untradable at this time. The point is, trade what you are comfortable with so long as you can do so profitably. I feel comfortable trading stocks and futures. If you are comfortable and profitable trading retail forex, then I would encourage you to continue, or at least I would not discourage you from doing so. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Hal I only asked because I keep an S/R chart based on spot prices, one of the GBPUSD and one fo the EURUSD, as I typically trade the 6B or 6E futures. I have a friend who trades both spot and futures, and he uses spot prices for S/R as well. Also, I like to see where the futures are trading to the spot (pemium/discount, and spread between them). I do not (usually) day trade other currencies, though I will take longer term swings on the 6A, 6C, and 6J. Best Wishes, Thales

Welcome back, Brownie! I've been off most of August myself. Getting ready to gear up again over the next few days-week.

I opened up TL and immediately the my computer got funky. Lo and Behold, there is that FX OPen add and my CPU spiked to insane levels.

Hi James, I have not had the problem since the ads were removed. Thank You, Thales

Just tried it again - cpu usage measures between 0-4% and whenever I load a TL page with an FXOpen ad, cpu usage spikes and hovers between 88-98%. This is on repeated tests. The second I close the TL window, cpu usage immediately drops to normal and safe levels. I guess I'll be off TL until those ads are changed. Best Wishes, Thales

I don't know if this has been mentioned yet or not, but whenever a page loads with that "FXopen" advertisement, my CPU spikes and my machine runs slow, and I am unable to scroll down a page and read the forum. It only happens when that advertisment is displayed. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Hal, Yes, I see now from your screenshot it was the futures. I was just curious. While my daughter had been trading spot, I prefer futures to retail FX. When you say "stops are market orders" do you mean that you yourself exit using a market order if your stop level is reached? You do not have your stop loss "in the market"? Best Wishes, Thales EDIT: PS Do you use spot price data at all?

Hi Hal, When you say you traded USD/CAD, were you trading the 6C futures contract or retail spot FX? Best Wishes, Thales

And as Db has often said, price reaching one of those meaningful levels is not itself an entry signal. What is important is what do traders do once price reaches that level. Of course, what traders do at that level matters because the level itself is not arbitrary, but rather represents a prior area where bulls and bears pushed and shoved against one another and someone won, someone lost, and everyone knows it. And by the way Hal, I did not mean that you should change whatever it is that you have found to work for you. My suggestion was an "in addition to" and not an "instead of" suggestion. Use S/R to help you implement your method. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Hal, I'm not sure what your black line is, but I have a feeling (a strong feeling) that its location vis a vis that test was pure coincidence. Here is my view of that test ... I think you'll agree it probably had nothing to do with your black line. I think you might want to draw S/R on you charts using a 15 or even 60 minute chart, and then drop to the range chart. That way you will see potentially meaningful levels without having to be confused or befuddled. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Bathrobe, I have no idea how to use what you posted, but I'm happy to hear that it is working well for you. Best Wishes, Thales

No problem, and I wasn't expecting anyone to post such proof. But it may be somewhat beneficial to remind ourselves that just something isn't necessarily true just because it is printed in a book. There are some folks who post to this thread on occassion who I suspect actually do have years of successful trading experience behind them. As such, what those folks have to say about aspects of Brook's method may be useful in determining the advantages and disadvantages of Brook's method for trading. Best Wishes, Thales

I do not mean to demean Mr. Brooks and the fine folks who contribute to this thread, but characterizing Mr. Brooks as having experienced "many years of successful trading" is based upon what evidence? Just a simple question that such statements bring to mind. Best Wishes, Thales

And how do you understand your execution problems? I think you know, and I also think you are closer to success than you yourself think you are. Best Wishes, Thales

James, do you not think a discussion can be over-moderated as well? It seems as though I can't post here any longer without someone reporting me. I see that one of my posts was deleted. I stand by the sentiment expressed in that now deleted post, and I see no reason for that one to have been deleted, especially given the character of the post to which it was in response. I see another post of mine was reported but allowed to stand. I do not see why that post was reported. Seems like an awful lot of thin skin around here amongst a group of folks who profess to participate in a game that is decidedly not for the thin skinned. For the record, I have not reported one post here. I disagree with much that is said, and I either hold my tongue or I post a response (of course one cannot post a response in the Price/Volume thread unless it is one that agrees with the premise of that thread as laid out in the initial post, but that is another issue). If you are going to run a forum, then for crying out loud, censor the participants for sexist, racist, or vulgar language, but otherwise let us be free to disagree and defend ourselves, especially when defending TL in the process. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Hal, Two things: 1) You do have some remarkably pretty charts. I suspect that some of the prettiness may be hurting you more than helping you, but only you will be able to determine whether I am correct or not in that regard. 2) Could you explain a bit more about what you mean when you say "I somehow mess it up with my thinking about stops;" and also, "while the picture is clear to me..." and does that at all tie in to your earlier post where you say "its much more about patterns like HH, HL, LL, LH"? Best Wishes, Thales

I do think that the phrase "get in touch with our iner self" certainly misses the mark of what I mean when I say that what a trader needs to succeed is self-control. You and I each have a different self-understanding and a different understanding of this activity called trading. You see trading as a war, I see it as a game. You see other traders as enemies trying to pick your pocket while you are simulataneously trying to pick theirs. I, on the other hand, see other traders as I see others gamblers betting on the exacta in the fifth at Aquaduct or Belmont - not as enemies, but as fellow contestants. We all contribute to the pot. Most will lose, and a few winners will split the pot. Those winners did nothing to victimize those losers. If I teach a few others to handicap the ponies as I do, have I harmed myself? No. Have those who would have bet and lost anyway be suufer any additional harm beyond what they's have lost whether I or my friends bet or not? No. It is a game, not a war. Play games, not war.

I'm having a blast ... and you? Smile when you've had enough!

39% win loss can be a huge winner with proper position sizing and a favorable risk/reward profile (which, as you note, requires letting your winners run). Yes, that makes a huge difference. It makes, in the end, all the difference. It all goes back to the notion that we aren't beat by the market, we beat ourselves. And yes, I know there are those soliciting here at TL. But I am not aware of such being the case among any of the very few who regularly post to this thread. Lastly, most day traders whom I know who are survivors are profitable, and they are profitable day after day, with few losing days, rarely a down week, and hardly ever a negative month. It is August. Frankly, if I were down for the year at this point, I'd be out of a job. Best Wishes, Thales

They'd have suffered with or without me. I didn't beat them. They beat themselves.